After a close game against Georgia, Auburn’s KenPom ratings decline.

Auburn basketball’s close loss to Georgia on January 19th has sent shockwaves through the program, significantly impacting their KenPom rankings and leaving fans, analysts, and coaches alike with a slew of questions. The Tigers, who entered the game with high expectations and solid momentum, were unable to close out the contest, resulting in a tough defeat that had a ripple effect on their standing in one of the most respected basketball ranking systems in the nation.

In this article, we’ll delve into how Auburn’s performance against Georgia affected their KenPom rankings, what this drop means for the team moving forward, and how Auburn can regain their footing in the SEC as they look to salvage their season.

The Game Against Georgia: A Tale of Missed Opportunities

The game between Auburn and Georgia was closely contested, with both teams playing with a sense of urgency. Auburn, which had been performing well in SEC play, faced a Georgia team that had been struggling to gain traction in the conference. On paper, Auburn appeared to have the advantage, but Georgia came into the game with a chip on their shoulder and outperformed expectations.

Auburn’s offense, which had been firing on all cylinders in their previous games, struggled against Georgia’s defense. The Tigers were unable to execute their usual offensive flow and missed several key shots, especially in the latter stages of the game. Despite Zep Jasper‘s 14 points and Walker Kessler‘s solid performance in the paint, Auburn’s offensive execution was inconsistent.

Defensively, Auburn was caught off guard by Georgia’s offensive strategy, which mixed up its tempo and kept the Tigers on their toes. Despite having the talent advantage on paper, Auburn couldn’t contain Georgia’s shooters in critical moments. Kario Oquendo led the Bulldogs, hitting clutch shots when it mattered most.

What made the loss even more frustrating for Auburn was the fact that they had every chance to close out the game. However, late turnovers, missed free throws, and defensive lapses contributed to their inability to secure the win. These factors were detrimental to their overall performance and ultimately contributed to their 66-63 defeat.

The KenPom Ratings Explained

The KenPom ratings are one of the most widely used and respected systems for ranking college basketball teams. Created by Ken Pomeroy, the system evaluates teams based on a variety of factors, including offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, pace of play, and strength of schedule. KenPom also incorporates a team’s performance against ranked and unranked teams to provide a more complete picture of their overall strength.

KenPom’s formula places significant importance on a team’s performance in close games, as well as their ability to execute in both offensive and defensive situations. A team that performs well in these metrics tends to rise in the rankings, while a poor performance, especially against a lower-ranked opponent, can have the opposite effect.

For Auburn, their loss to Georgia was particularly impactful because the Bulldogs were not considered a major contender within the SEC. While Georgia has been competitive in some of their games, they were not expected to pose a serious threat to a team like Auburn, especially on their home court. As a result, this loss caused Auburn’s rankings to drop in multiple categories, including overall efficiency, adjusted offensive efficiency, and adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Impact of the Loss on Auburn’s KenPom Ranking

Before the loss to Georgia, Auburn was positioned comfortably in the Top 15 of the KenPom rankings, which indicated that they were one of the top teams in the country based on their metrics. The Tigers were considered a strong contender for an NCAA Tournament bid, with an impressive record and solid play both offensively and defensively. Their metrics were bolstered by impressive wins earlier in the season, including a key victory against a tough Arkansas team.

However, the loss to Georgia, while close, significantly impacted their KenPom ranking in several ways. After the defeat, Auburn dropped in several key categories:

1. Offensive Efficiency: Auburn’s offensive rating took a hit after the game. They were previously in the Top 30 nationally for offensive efficiency, but their struggles against Georgia saw their offensive rating fall. Auburn’s inability to execute in crucial moments against an inferior opponent highlighted weaknesses in their offensive execution, such as their inability to create clean looks or convert in transition.
2. Defensive Efficiency: While Auburn had been known for their tough defense, their performance against Georgia showed vulnerabilities, particularly in defending the perimeter and limiting open shots. Auburn’s defensive efficiency rating also saw a drop after allowing Georgia to shoot at an effective clip, especially from deep range. The Tigers allowed too many clean looks for a team that has struggled to consistently score in SEC play.
3. Strength of Schedule: Auburn’s strength of schedule took a hit as well, as their loss to Georgia, a team with a subpar record, diminished the overall quality of wins they had accumulated. Georgia’s low-ranking meant that the loss would be seen as a missed opportunity, negatively affecting Auburn’s standing within the KenPom system. While Auburn had other strong wins, the defeat to an unranked team will likely be factored in when analysts look at their resume.
4. Game Control and Close Games: The fact that Auburn let a winnable game slip away in the final minutes played a significant role in the KenPom rating formula. Teams that perform well in close games tend to be rated higher because they demonstrate the ability to execute under pressure. Auburn’s failure to close out Georgia demonstrated a lack of composure in critical moments, which could impact their standing in the rankings.

What the Decline Means for Auburn’s Season

Auburn’s drop in the KenPom rankings is more than just a reflection of one loss. The Tigers now find themselves in a precarious position as they continue their SEC schedule. While they have the talent to rebound and continue competing at a high level, their loss to Georgia raises questions about their ability to perform consistently in the SEC, where the competition is fierce.

The immediate concern for Auburn will be how they respond to this loss. The Tigers still have games against strong SEC teams such as Kentucky, Alabama, and Tennessee, all of which will provide opportunities to prove that they can bounce back. However, if Auburn continues to struggle with closing out games and maintaining offensive efficiency, they could find themselves falling further down the rankings, both in KenPom and in the eyes of the NCAA Selection Committee.

For Auburn head coach Bruce Pearl, the focus will need to be on getting his players to stay mentally sharp, particularly in high-pressure situations. While individual performances like those of Walker Kessler and Jabari Smith are vital to the team’s success, they need to play with more cohesion as a unit and take advantage of their talents in a more consistent manner.

How Auburn Can Rebound

While the loss to Georgia was a setback, Auburn is far from out of the picture. Here are a few ways that the Tigers can recover from this loss and regain their standing in the rankings:

1. Improve Offensive Execution: Auburn must find a way to get their offense back on track. That could mean running more efficient sets, moving the ball quicker to create open looks, and improving their shooting consistency. Having more players contribute on offense will take pressure off of Kessler and Smith.
2. Tighten Up Defensive Fundamentals: While Auburn’s defense has been one of their strengths, they need to be more disciplined, particularly against teams that rely on outside shooting. Closing out on shooters and limiting second-chance opportunities will be key to avoiding similar losses in the future.
3. Mental Toughness in Close Games: The Tigers have shown that they can compete with the best, but they need to stay composed and execute in the final minutes of games. Auburn can’t afford to let games slip away due to turnovers, missed free throws, or poor shot selection.
4. Strengthen Their Resume: To get back into contention for a high NCAA Tournament seed, Auburn will need to stack wins against ranked opponents and demonstrate that they can win tough games in the SEC. This will help improve their overall metrics and solidify their spot in the postseason.