Arch Manning is expected to have a strong season, but predicting exact passing touchdowns depends on various factors.

As college football fans eagerly await the 2025 season, all eyes are on one of the most highly anticipated freshmen in the country—Arch Manning. The five-star quarterback and the latest in the storied Manning family of quarterbacks, Arch is poised to make an immediate impact at Texas. His arrival has sparked an abundance of excitement and speculation about what his first season will look like, including how many passing touchdowns he will record in his debut year.

The question of how many passing touchdowns Arch Manning will throw this season is a compelling one, especially when comparing him to the performance of last year’s starter, Quinn Ewers, who threw for 31 touchdowns during the 2024 season. While predicting exact numbers in college football is never a guarantee due to the variables that can affect a player’s performance, there are several key factors to consider when projecting Manning’s potential production. These include his skill set, the system he will be playing in, his supporting cast, and the experiences of quarterbacks who have followed similar paths.

In this article, we will explore these factors in detail, as well as compare Manning’s potential performance to Quinn Ewers’ stellar 2024 campaign. Let’s dive into the discussion on how many passing touchdowns Arch Manning could have in his first season and what expectations are realistic for this rising star.

The Arch Manning Hype: Background and Expectations

Arch Manning’s arrival at Texas has been widely anticipated ever since he made the decision to commit to the Longhorns in 2023. As the grandson of Archie Manning, nephew of Peyton Manning, and cousin of Eli Manning, Arch comes from a football pedigree that is unrivaled in modern sports. The pressure and expectations on him are enormous, but Manning has shown throughout his high school career that he is capable of handling it. His time at Isidore Newman High School in New Orleans was filled with success, including a standout senior year in which he threw for over 3,000 yards and 34 touchdowns, showcasing his elite arm strength, accuracy, and football IQ.

Manning’s move to Texas represents the next step in what many believe will be a bright and successful college career. He steps into a program that has steadily been improving under head coach Steve Sarkisian, with a more dynamic offensive system that has featured an emphasis on both the passing game and explosive plays. Manning will be joining an offense with a talented offensive line, a strong group of wide receivers, and a capable running game. All these pieces are in place for him to make a significant impact from day one.

However, despite all the hype, Manning’s first season in college football will still be a learning experience. The adjustment to the speed and complexity of college defenses will undoubtedly take time, and there may be growing pains along the way. While Manning is immensely talented, predicting how quickly he will reach his full potential and how many touchdowns he will throw depends on numerous variables.

The Quinn Ewers Comparison: A Strong Benchmark

Before diving into Manning’s potential performance, it’s helpful to examine the recent success of the quarterback he will likely be compared to—Quinn Ewers. Ewers, who was a high-profile recruit in his own right, transferred to Texas from Ohio State and made an immediate impact as the Longhorns’ starting quarterback in 2024. In his first full season as a starter, Ewers threw for 31 touchdowns, helping Texas to an impressive record and a near-miss for a College Football Playoff berth.

Ewers’ performance in 2024 serves as a strong benchmark for any quarterback at Texas, especially a freshman like Manning. The 31 touchdowns that Ewers posted were a result of Sarkisian’s dynamic offensive system, which emphasizes a balanced attack with a heavy focus on deep passing plays and exploiting mismatches on the field. With a talented group of wide receivers such as Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington, along with a reliable running game, Ewers was able to put up impressive numbers.

While it’s important to note that Manning and Ewers are different quarterbacks with their own unique skill sets, Ewers’ success provides a useful reference point for what is possible in Sarkisian’s offense. If Manning is able to adapt quickly to college football and develop chemistry with his receiving corps, it’s not out of the question for him to match or even exceed the 31 touchdowns that Ewers had. However, there are several factors that will influence whether Manning can reach those same heights.

Factors Affecting Arch Manning’s Passing Touchdowns in 2025

1. Offensive System and Playcalling

Steve Sarkisian’s offensive system is designed to put quarterbacks in positions to succeed. His air-raid style focuses on a fast-paced passing game, utilizing both short, quick throws and deep shots down the field. This system has historically been successful for quarterbacks in terms of putting up big numbers. Ewers’ 31 touchdowns in 2024 were a direct result of Sarkisian’s playcalling, and Manning will benefit from the same system in 2025.

However, Manning’s development within this system will be critical. Quarterbacks in Sarkisian’s offense need to be able to read defenses quickly, make accurate throws on the move, and deliver the ball on time to a variety of targets. Manning’s ability to master these elements will determine how successful he is in producing touchdowns. Given his background and skill set, he appears well-suited for this offense, but how quickly he adapts will be key.

2. Supporting Cast: Wide Receivers and Running Game

One of the biggest factors influencing Manning’s potential touchdown numbers will be the supporting cast around him. In 2024, Ewers benefited from a talented group of wide receivers, including Xavier Worthy, who has been one of the best deep threats in college football, and Jordan Whittington, a versatile playmaker. Manning will have a similarly talented group of receivers at his disposal, including Worthy, Whittington, and the emerging talent of players like AD Mitchell and others.

Additionally, Texas’ running game will play a pivotal role in Manning’s success. If the Longhorns are able to establish a solid ground game with running backs like Bijan Robinson (who is now in the NFL) or other potential contributors, it will force opposing defenses to respect the run, opening up more opportunities for Manning in the passing game. A strong running attack would allow Manning to work off play-action, creating more opportunities for easy touchdowns.

While Manning will have a solid supporting cast, it is still possible that early in the season, he may rely more on short-yardage and intermediate passing plays while finding his rhythm. As his comfort level increases, the deep passing game—something Sarkisian’s offense thrives on—will likely come into play, increasing Manning’s chances of throwing for multiple touchdowns in games.

3. Competition and Opposing Defenses

The SEC is known for having some of the best and most challenging defenses in college football. Manning will face some tough competition in 2025, and his ability to read complex defenses will be tested. With teams like Alabama, Georgia, and LSU on the schedule, Manning’s ability to stay composed and make precise throws will be crucial.

While the Longhorns’ offense will likely put up big numbers against some of the weaker defenses in the conference, the toughest matchups against SEC powerhouses will provide a litmus test for Manning. How well he handles pressure from elite defenses could have a major impact on his touchdown totals. Quarterbacks in the SEC are often faced with the challenge of producing against high-caliber defenses week in and week out, so Manning’s development will be key in navigating these challenges.

4. Manning’s Transition from High School to College Football

Though Manning has been widely regarded as one of the best quarterback prospects in recent years, there will still be an adjustment period as he transitions to the college level. The speed of the game, the complexity of the defenses, and the increased physicality are all factors that he will have to adapt to quickly. While his high school experience was exceptional, there is a difference between dominating at the high school level and thriving in college football.

How well Manning adjusts to these challenges will play a significant role in his touchdown production. If he can quickly adapt to the college game and develop chemistry with his receivers, there is a chance he could match or even exceed the 31 touchdowns that Ewers threw in 2024. However, some growing pains should be expected, especially early in the season, which might lower his touchdown total in the first few games.

Projecting Arch Manning’s Passing Touchdowns in 2025

Based on the factors discussed, it is reasonable to expect that Arch Manning could throw for anywhere between 25 and 35 passing touchdowns in his freshman season. This projection takes into account the learning curve that all freshmen face, the strong offensive system that Sarkisian runs, the talented supporting cast, and the level of competition Manning will face in the SEC.

If Manning adjusts quickly and has a breakout season, it’s not out of the realm of possibility for him to challenge Ewers’ 31 touchdowns. However, a more conservative estimate might place Manning in the 25-to-30 touchdown range, which would still be an impressive feat for a freshman quarterback.

 Manning’s Bright Future

As Arch Manning steps onto the field for his first season at Texas, expectations are sky-high. While it’s difficult to predict exactly how many passing touchdowns he will have, it is clear that he has the potential to be a dynamic force in college football. With a talented supporting cast, a system that favors high-scoring offenses, and the legacy of the Manning family behind him, Manning is poised for a successful career at Texas. His passing touchdown numbers will be just one of the many indicators of his development as a quarterback, but regardless of the final tally, the future is incredibly bright for Arch Manning in Austin.