NFL playoff forecasts for 2024: The field is predicted using The Athletic’s model

As the 2024 NFL season looms, the anticipation for the playoffs is already building. Fans, analysts, and experts are speculating on which teams will rise to the occasion and make a deep run toward the Super Bowl. In recent years, the NFL playoffs have become a stage where anything can happen, with surprise upsets, thrilling performances, and high-stakes matchups that leave fans on the edge of their seats. The 2024 season promises to be no different, and with the help of The Athletic’s model, we have a better idea of how the playoff field could shape up.

The Athletic’s model uses a combination of factors such as team performance, player metrics, strength of schedule, and advanced analytics to forecast the playoff picture for each season. As the NFL continues to evolve, the reliance on data and sophisticated models becomes more important, offering a clearer picture of which teams are most likely to succeed. Let’s break down The Athletic’s predictions for the 2024 NFL playoffs, offering insight into which teams are expected to contend for the coveted playoff spots and, ultimately, a chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy.

The Athletic’s Model: Methodology Behind the Forecasts

Before diving into the actual predictions, it’s essential to understand the methodology behind The Athletic’s model for forecasting the NFL playoffs. This model is based on several key components:

1. Team Performance and Consistency: The model takes into account a team’s performance in the regular season, examining how consistently they win games, especially against tough opponents. It factors in team efficiency, including both offensive and defensive metrics, and how these metrics correlate with playoff success. Teams that can perform well across all aspects of the game—passing, rushing, defense, and special teams—are more likely to be predicted as strong playoff contenders.
2. Player Metrics and Key Players: Injuries and player performance have a huge impact on any NFL season, so The Athletic’s model looks closely at a team’s key players, especially quarterbacks and stars on both sides of the ball. Injuries to high-impact players like quarterbacks, wide receivers, or pass rushers are accounted for, and the model adjusts predictions based on a team’s depth and overall player health.
3. Strength of Schedule: Strength of schedule (SOS) is a critical factor in determining playoff forecasts. Teams that play a more challenging slate of opponents will be tested more thoroughly and, if they succeed, will be seen as even stronger playoff contenders. Conversely, teams that face an easier schedule could see their success potentially overinflated. The model analyzes each team’s schedule and how it might affect their chances to make the postseason.
4. Advanced Analytics and Statistical Predictions: The Athletic’s model incorporates data-driven projections from advanced statistics, including DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), EPA (Expected Points Added), and win probability models. These metrics give a more nuanced understanding of how teams are performing in specific areas, such as offensive efficiency, defensive performance, and special teams play. The model also factors in projected growth or regression for certain players or teams, ensuring that predictions reflect the most accurate forecast of how each team is likely to perform.

Given these components, The Athletic’s model produces a forecast of the most likely playoff teams for the 2024 NFL season. While the forecast is never perfect, as the NFL season is inherently unpredictable, the model’s data-driven approach gives a clearer picture of what we can expect come playoff time.

Projected Playoff Teams: The AFC and NFC Breakdown

AFC Playoffs:

1. Kansas City Chiefs: Led by Patrick Mahomes, the Kansas City Chiefs are perennial Super Bowl contenders. Despite any roster turnover or changes, the Chiefs continue to be a dominant force in the AFC. Mahomes’ ability to elevate the play of those around him, coupled with a high-octane offense, makes Kansas City the model of consistency in the conference. The Athletic’s model gives the Chiefs a strong chance to secure one of the top playoff spots once again, with the only real question being which team can knock them off their perch.
2. Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals have risen to prominence in the past few seasons, with quarterback Joe Burrow leading the charge. Burrow’s chemistry with wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins makes Cincinnati one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Add in a playmaking defense and strong special teams, and the Bengals are poised to make a deep playoff run in 2024. The Athletic’s model places them firmly in playoff contention, especially given Burrow’s ability to perform in high-pressure situations.
3. Buffalo Bills: The Buffalo Bills, led by quarterback Josh Allen, have been one of the most competitive teams in the NFL in recent years. Allen’s arm strength and ability to make plays with his legs make the Bills a dangerous team, while Stefon Diggs remains one of the top wide receivers in the league. If the Bills can continue to improve their defensive consistency, they should be in the mix for the playoffs in 2024. However, questions about their playoff execution could impact their standing.
4. Miami Dolphins: The Miami Dolphins are one of the most exciting young teams in the NFL, with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback and a potent receiving corps headlined by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins’ high-powered offense, combined with a much-improved defense, makes them a strong candidate for a playoff spot. If Miami can stay healthy and continue to develop their chemistry, they could make a serious playoff push in 2024.
5. Baltimore Ravens: With the return of Lamar Jackson, the Baltimore Ravens are always a threat in the AFC. Jackson is one of the most dynamic players in the NFL, capable of making game-changing plays with his arm and legs. The Ravens also boast a stout defense, led by Roquan Smith and Marlon Humphrey. The key for Baltimore will be whether their offense can take the next step under offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who will look to create a more balanced and explosive attack.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jacksonville Jaguars are a rising team in the AFC, led by young quarterback Trevor Lawrence and a talented group of weapons on offense. The addition of key players on defense, such as linebacker Devin Lloyd and defensive lineman Josh Allen, has bolstered Jacksonville’s defense. If Lawrence continues to develop and lead the offense, the Jaguars could make a serious push for the playoffs in 2024.
7. Los Angeles Chargers: With quarterback Justin Herbert and a potent offense, the Los Angeles Chargers are always a threat in the AFC. However, the Chargers have struggled with consistency in recent years, particularly in the postseason. The development of their defense and special teams will be crucial in their pursuit of a playoff spot. If the Chargers can put it all together, they should be in the playoff hunt.

NFC Playoffs:

1. Philadelphia Eagles: The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off a Super Bowl appearance and have the pieces in place to contend once again in 2024. Jalen Hurts, now fully entrenched as the starting quarterback, has proven to be one of the most dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks in the league. With a strong offensive line, elite weapons like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and a defense that includes star players like Fletcher Cox and Darius Slay, the Eagles are poised to remain one of the top teams in the NFC.
2. San Francisco 49ers: The San Francisco 49ers have one of the most complete teams in the NFL, with a stellar defense and a strong offense. With head coach Kyle Shanahan calling the shots, the 49ers’ offense has been one of the most innovative in the league, while their defense remains suffocating. The only question mark for the 49ers is at quarterback, as they have multiple options with Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, and Sam Darnold. If the 49ers can get consistent play at the quarterback position, they will be one of the NFC’s most dangerous teams.
3. Dallas Cowboys: The Dallas Cowboys have long been a team with high expectations, but they’ve struggled to reach the highest level of success. Dak Prescott remains the key to their offense, and the Cowboys will need him to stay healthy and avoid turnovers. Micah Parsons leads a defense that is among the best in the NFL, and if their offense can complement that defense, the Cowboys should be in the playoff mix once again.
4. Minnesota Vikings: The Minnesota Vikings are a strong contender in the NFC, led by quarterback Kirk Cousins and a talented offensive cast, including Justin Jefferson, one of the best wide receivers in the league. The Vikings’ defense, which has improved in recent seasons, will need to take another step forward if they are to contend with the best in the NFC. The Vikings have the potential to make a deep playoff run, but they will need to play with more consistency throughout the season.
5. Detroit Lions: The Detroit Lions are one of the most exciting teams in the NFC, led by Jared Goff at quarterback and a potent offensive attack. With an improving defense and a growing culture under head coach Dan Campbell, the Lions are primed to make a playoff push in 2024. If they can improve on defense and continue to develop their young players, Detroit could surprise some teams and make a serious postseason run.
6. Seattle Seahawks: The Seattle Seahawks made significant strides in 2023, and with Geno Smith continuing to perform at a high level, they could be poised for another playoff appearance. With a talented roster that includes DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and a solid defense, the Seahawks could be a tough opponent for anyone in the NFC.
7. Green Bay Packers: The Green Bay Packers are in transition, but they still have a talented roster, particularly on defense. Jordan Love will take the reins at quarterback, and if he can develop into a reliable starter, the Packers could surprise people and make a run for the playoffs.