The second-largest spread in the history of the CFP title game is Ohio State’s 9 1/2-point advantage over Notre Dame.

The Second-Largest Spread in College Football Playoff History: Ohio State’s 9 1/2-Point Advantage Over Notre Dame

In the days leading up to the College Football Playoff (CFP) National Championship, the buzz around Ohio State’s match-up with Notre Dame has been palpable. As two of the most storied programs in college football, this championship game was poised to be a spectacle of talent, tradition, and national pride. However, the headlines leading into the matchup weren’t just focused on the rich history and passionate fanbases of these two teams. Instead, all eyes were drawn to the 9 1/2-point spread that Ohio State held over Notre Dame, marking the second-largest point spread in CFP history.

This substantial line reflects a variety of factors—from Ohio State’s overwhelming offensive firepower to Notre Dame’s challenges in matching up with the Buckeyes. It also signifies the dominant role Ohio State has played in the College Football Playoff era, further establishing them as one of the premier programs in college football. As the clock ticked down to the national championship game, many fans and analysts alike began to wonder: Would Ohio State live up to the expectation, or could Notre Dame pull off a monumental upset?

Understanding the Spread: The Context Behind Ohio State’s 9 1/2-Point Advantage

To put Ohio State’s 9 1/2-point spread into perspective, it’s essential to understand the factors that shape the betting odds in major matchups like this one. In the case of a College Football Playoff National Championship game, the spread is a reflection of several key elements:

1. Team Strengths and Weaknesses: Ohio State entered the game with one of the most prolific offenses in college football. Their explosive quarterback C.J. Stroud, who was in the conversation for the Heisman Trophy, was a major factor in the team’s success. Complemented by a powerful group of skill players, including Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Miyan Williams, the Buckeyes had one of the most dangerous offenses in the country.In contrast, Notre Dame, while known for its stout defense, had struggled at times throughout the season to find consistency on offense. The Fighting Irish were led by Drew Pyne, who had shown flashes of brilliance but lacked the proven track record to consistently challenge top-tier defenses like Ohio State’s. While Notre Dame had its strengths, including a physical offensive line and a formidable defense led by standout players like Isaiah Foskey, they were seen as underdogs heading into the game.
2. Recent Performance in Big Games: Ohio State’s ability to thrive in high-pressure environments has been a hallmark of its program under head coach Ryan Day. The Buckeyes had not only earned a spot in the CFP but had also handled tough competition with relative ease. They demonstrated their ability to win crucial games, including a dominant victory over Michigan in their regular-season finale, propelling them into the CFP discussion. On the other hand, while Notre Dame had been impressive, they had not had the same level of success against elite competition in recent years, particularly in the College Football Playoff, where they have struggled in their previous appearances.
3. Historical Context: The 9 1/2-point spread is significant in the context of previous CFP National Championship games. The largest spread in CFP history came in 2018 when Alabama entered the title game as a 17-point favorite against Georgia. Historically, spreads in these games tend to be more moderate, reflecting the evenly matched nature of top-tier programs. The 9 1/2-point spread represents a considerable edge for Ohio State but does not approach the extremes seen in past games.

Ohio State’s Strengths and Why They Are Heavy Favorites

To understand why Ohio State was such a strong favorite, one need only look at the Buckeyes’ offense. C.J. Stroud, who has been regarded as one of the top quarterbacks in the nation, had an incredible season. He led Ohio State to the No. 1-ranked offense in college football, averaging over 500 yards per game. His chemistry with wide receivers Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. created one of the most potent passing attacks in the nation. Ohio State’s offensive line, which was also one of the best in the country, provided Stroud with plenty of time to throw, and the team was able to exploit defenses through the air, often at will.

In addition to the air attack, Ohio State boasted a strong running game with Miyan Williams, who averaged over 6 yards per carry. His bruising style was complemented by Travion Henderson, offering Ohio State a dynamic and balanced offensive attack. The ability to run the ball effectively allowed the Buckeyes to control the tempo of games and open up even more opportunities in the passing game.

Defensively, Ohio State also had a formidable unit. Though not as heralded as the offense, their defense was no slouch. The Buckeyes were led by J.T. Tuimoloau, a pass-rushing force capable of disrupting quarterbacks, and a secondary that had improved over the course of the season. They had the ability to shut down opposing offenses, making them a well-rounded team capable of dominating both sides of the ball.

Notre Dame’s Challenges and the Underdog Narrative

While Notre Dame’s defense had been a strength throughout the season, the team faced several challenges heading into the championship game. Drew Pyne, though competent, had not been as consistent as Ohio State’s Stroud. Pyne’s inexperience on the big stage made him a question mark in the eyes of many analysts, as he would be tasked with trying to keep up with one of the most high-powered offenses in the country. Pyne would need to be near-perfect in order to pull off an upset, something that many doubted he could do given the circumstances.

Moreover, Notre Dame’s offense had struggled at times to generate explosive plays, particularly in their loss to Clemson earlier in the season. While their running game, led by Logan Diggs, had been solid, they lacked the same big-play potential that Ohio State had in abundance. The Fighting Irish would need to establish a balanced offense to keep the Buckeyes’ defense on their heels and avoid becoming too one-dimensional.

Defensively, however, Notre Dame had some promising matchups. The Irish had one of the nation’s top defensive lines, anchored by Isaiah Foskey, and their secondary was talented enough to challenge Ohio State’s receiving corps. But in a game against such a high-powered offense, the question remained: could Notre Dame’s defense make enough stops, and could their offense keep pace?

The Buckeye Faithful: Expectations and Pressure

For Ohio State fans, the expectations were sky-high. After years of being one of the nation’s elite programs, many felt that this was the year for Ohio State to reclaim its rightful place at the top of college football. The 9 1/2-point spread reflected this sense of confidence. Yet, with these lofty expectations came the weight of pressure. While the Buckeyes had been dominant throughout the regular season, this was their chance to prove that they were deserving of the title of best team in the nation.

Ryan Day, who had been lauded for his offensive genius, faced his own challenges heading into this game. As the head coach of a program with a rich football history, the stakes for Day were high. A victory would solidify his legacy at Ohio State, while a loss, especially against an underdog like Notre Dame, could raise questions about the program’s future.

What Would an Upset Mean for College Football?

While Ohio State entered the game as the heavy favorite, the idea of an upset was not out of the question. If Notre Dame were to pull off the unthinkable and beat the Buckeyes, it would mark one of the biggest surprises in recent College Football Playoff history. An upset of this magnitude would send shockwaves through the college football world, especially considering the dominance that Ohio State had shown leading up to the game.

For Notre Dame, an unexpected victory would further cement their reputation as one of the premier programs in college football. A championship win would add another layer to their legacy, proving that they could compete with the best of the best in the CFP era.

The Game: A Battle of Expectations and Realities

As the game unfolded, it became clear that Ohio State’s dominance, reflected by their large spread, was well-earned. The Buckeyes’ offensive line imposed its will, and Stroud’s connection with his talented receiving corps was on full display. Notre Dame’s defense, despite its best efforts, struggled to contain Ohio State’s dynamic offense. On offense, the Fighting Irish just couldn’t keep pace, as Pyne’s inexperience showed against one of the nation’s best defenses.

In the end, Ohio State’s advantage was simply too much for Notre Dame to overcome. The Buckeyes claimed victory in a dominant fashion, reaffirming their place as one of the nation’s premier programs. The 9 1/2-point spread, while significant, was ultimately a reflection of the team’s overall superiority.