Does Texas men’s basketball have a chance to qualify for the NCAA Tournament?

As the college basketball season nears its climax, the University of Texas men’s basketball team finds itself in a critical juncture of its campaign. With the NCAA Tournament drawing closer, every game becomes increasingly vital. The Longhorns, a team with a rich basketball history, have shown flashes of brilliance this season, but like many teams, they’ve faced a series of obstacles that have left their tournament hopes hanging in the balance. The question remains: Does Texas have a chance to qualify for the 2025 NCAA Tournament?

The road to the NCAA Tournament is never straightforward, and for Texas, it’s a mix of impressive wins, head-scratching losses, and a series of tough conference matchups that have kept fans on edge. To understand whether the Longhorns have a realistic shot at making the tournament, we need to break down several key factors: their current standing in the Big 12, their performance against ranked opponents, their overall resume, and the likelihood of securing an at-large bid.

The Big 12: A Tough Conference, But a Path to the Tournament

The Big 12 Conference has long been considered one of the most competitive basketball leagues in the nation, and the 2024-2025 season has been no different. With perennial powerhouses like Kansas, Baylor, and Texas Tech, every game in the Big 12 is a challenge, and the Longhorns’ performance within the conference plays a significant role in determining their NCAA Tournament fate.

Entering conference play, Texas had a strong non-conference record, but the true test of their abilities came when they faced off against other Big 12 teams. Early in the season, Texas had some signature victories, including a win over a top-ranked opponent, which gave their tournament hopes an initial boost. However, as the season has progressed, Texas has encountered challenges. While they have had some quality wins, they’ve also suffered from inconsistent play at times, especially on the road. In a league as stacked as the Big 12, any drop-off in performance can severely hurt a team’s tournament prospects.

The top half of the Big 12 is extremely competitive, and Texas’ ability to win games against fellow tournament hopefuls like Kansas, Baylor, and TCU is crucial. Wins against these teams not only bolster their resume but also show that Texas is capable of competing at the highest level. If the Longhorns can string together some victories against the elite teams in their conference, they will increase their chances of earning a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Impressive Wins and Inconsistent Losses: A Mixed Bag

When looking at Texas’ chances of making the NCAA Tournament, it’s crucial to examine their wins and losses. As of late February, the Longhorns have several notable victories on their resume. Among them are wins over ranked opponents, such as a hard-fought victory against a top-25 team earlier in the season. These wins hold significant weight for the selection committee because they show that Texas can compete with some of the nation’s best.

However, for all the impressive wins, Texas has also suffered a number of disappointing losses. These losses have often come against teams that are not ranked in the top 25 or teams that were seen as beatable. In the Big 12, every game is a potential upset, and losing to lower-ranked teams or teams with poor records can undermine a team’s NCAA Tournament bid. Inconsistent performances, especially in close games or on the road, are problematic for any team hoping to make the tournament.

The selection committee typically weighs the overall strength of a team’s schedule, including the quality of wins and losses, as well as how a team performs in conference play. For Texas, avoiding bad losses in the final stretch of the season will be key to keeping their hopes alive. At the same time, they will need to secure some high-quality victories to make their case.

NCAA Tournament Criteria and the Longhorns’ Resume

To make the NCAA Tournament, a team’s resume must meet certain criteria. The NCAA selection committee primarily looks at the following factors when determining which teams will receive an at-large bid:

1. Record and Performance in Conference Play: A team’s overall record and performance against strong conference opponents are major factors. Texas has a respectable record, but its performance in the Big 12 will largely determine their tournament fate.
2. Quality Wins: Wins against ranked opponents, especially those in the top 25 or top 50 of the RPI, are significant. Texas has a few marquee victories, which helps their case.
3. Non-Conference Strength: How well a team performs in the non-conference portion of their schedule can provide a boost. Texas’ non-conference performance was strong, but it may not be enough to secure a bid without additional success in Big 12 play.
4. Metrics (KenPom, NET, RPI): The NCAA uses several advanced metrics to evaluate teams, including KenPom rankings, the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool), and RPI (Ratings Percentage Index). Texas’ performance in these metrics is something the committee will consider when determining their standing. While they’ve been solid in these areas, they still need to perform at a high level during the stretch run.
5. Close Games and Road Games: How a team fares in close games and on the road can be a telltale sign of its potential for postseason play. Texas has had a mixed bag of performances in these areas, and how they finish the regular season could make the difference between getting in or staying home.

What Must Texas Do to Improve Their Odds?

As the regular season winds down, Texas must focus on the following areas to maximize their chances of qualifying for the NCAA Tournament:

1. Finish Strong in Big 12 Play: Texas cannot afford to falter in the final stretch of the season. With several key games left on their schedule, winning at least a few of these contests, especially against teams with strong tournament resumes, is essential. If they can end the regular season on a high note and go deep into the Big 12 Tournament, it will bolster their resume significantly.
2. Avoid Bad Losses: One of the most important things Texas can do is avoid any more bad losses. Falling to teams that have little or no shot at making the NCAA Tournament could ruin their chances. It’s essential that they take care of business against lower-tier Big 12 teams, especially at home, to ensure they maintain a solid record.
3. Leverage Their Strong Defense and Depth: Texas has a talented roster, with multiple players capable of stepping up and making an impact. They need to continue to rely on their strengths—defense and depth—while minimizing mistakes. Defensively, they need to limit opposing teams’ high-scoring outputs and ensure that they’re making the most of their offensive opportunities.
4. Win Big in the Big 12 Tournament: If Texas can perform well in the Big 12 Tournament, it could be the difference-maker for their tournament hopes. A strong showing—perhaps even a deep run to the final—would give them a significant boost and could elevate their tournament resume, making them a strong candidate for an at-large bid.

Potential Roadblocks for Texas’ Tournament Hopes

While Texas still has a path to the NCAA Tournament, there are some significant hurdles they must overcome. As previously mentioned, consistency has been a major issue this season, and they can’t afford to have any more off nights. With the highly competitive nature of the Big 12, any slip-ups could push them out of the conversation entirely.

Additionally, while Texas’ defense is a strength, their offense has been a bit more erratic. They need to ensure that they’re executing on the offensive end, especially in close games. If they can’t score efficiently in key moments, their chances of securing an NCAA Tournament bid could diminish rapidly.

Another issue is the injury bug. Like many teams, Texas has faced some injuries during the season, and while their depth has helped them weather some storms, continued injuries could hamper their chances at securing a spot in the tournament. The Longhorns will need to stay healthy and have their key players playing at a high level down the stretch.

 A Path, But Not a Guarantee

In conclusion, Texas men’s basketball certainly has a shot at qualifying for the NCAA Tournament, but it won’t be easy. The team has the talent and potential to make a deep run in the Big 12 Tournament and potentially secure an at-large bid, but they must show consistency, avoid bad losses, and finish strong both in regular season play and in the postseason.

With several key games remaining, it’s all about Texas playing to its potential and continuing to develop their game on both sides of the court. The Longhorns are on the bubble, and while they’re not a lock for the tournament just yet, they have the chance to prove themselves worthy of a spot.

As March approaches, the Longhorns must rise to the occasion and take advantage of every opportunity. The path to the NCAA Tournament is still open for Texas, but it’s up to them to seize it. Every game counts, and if they can stay focused and finish strong, their NCAA Tournament dreams could very well become a reality.