According to ESPN Bracketology, the Oklahoma Sooners are dancing.

For college basketball teams on the bubble, the final weeks of the regular season are always filled with tension and excitement. With every game carrying major implications for NCAA Tournament hopes, programs battle not just for conference titles but also for an invitation to the prestigious field of 68. For the Oklahoma Sooners, the 2025 season has been a rollercoaster of highs and lows, but as March approaches, their tournament prospects are beginning to look increasingly promising.

According to ESPN’s Bracketology, the Oklahoma Sooners are currently in the mix to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament, with an inclusion in the field looking more likely by the day. But what exactly has changed for the Sooners? What factors have propelled them into tournament contention, and how have they managed to bounce back from a rough start to put themselves in a position to compete for a spot in the Big Dance?

In this article, we’ll take a deep dive into the Oklahoma Sooners’ journey this season, breaking down their key performances, standout players, coaching adjustments, and how they’ve built a case for NCAA Tournament inclusion. With an eye on bracketology, we’ll explore the Sooners’ current position and what they need to do in the final stretch of the regular season to ensure they “dance” come March.

Oklahoma’s 2025 Journey: From Struggles to Success

The season began with more questions than answers for the Sooners. Head coach Porter Moser, in his third year at the helm of the Oklahoma program, entered the season with the goal of returning the program to its former prominence. The Sooners had shown flashes of brilliance in his first two years but had yet to establish consistency. Moser’s defensive-minded coaching style, combined with a high-paced offense, had the potential to be a recipe for success, but they had yet to put everything together.

Early in the 2025 season, the Sooners faced some tough losses that raised doubts about their ability to compete at a high level in the competitive Big 12. However, as the calendar turned to January and February, things started to click. The Sooners’ defense — one of Moser’s signature strengths — began to gel, and they found a rhythm offensively. Their turnaround was highlighted by a stretch of strong victories over top-tier opponents and key wins within the Big 12, one of the toughest conferences in the country.

Strengths That Have Made Oklahoma a Tournament Contender

Oklahoma’s rise in the NCAA Tournament projections comes down to several key factors. Here, we’ll break down what has made this team stand out and why ESPN’s Bracketology currently has them dancing.

Improved Offensive Efficiency

One of the primary reasons for Oklahoma’s success this season has been their offensive efficiency. Last year, the Sooners often struggled to find consistent scoring options, relying heavily on individual performances rather than a well-balanced attack. This season, however, they’ve been much more cohesive offensively. Their ball movement has improved, and they’ve become much better at finding open looks from beyond the arc as well as executing inside plays with their big men.

At the heart of Oklahoma’s offensive resurgence is Tanner Groves, the senior center who has taken on a larger role this season. Groves has been a dominant force in the paint and a reliable scoring option for the Sooners. His ability to finish inside, coupled with his basketball IQ and passing vision, makes him a constant threat. He’s also been able to stretch the floor with his shooting ability, particularly from mid-range, allowing the Sooners to space the floor effectively.

Alongside Groves, Grant Sherfield has been a revelation in the backcourt. A transfer from Nevada, Sherfield has provided Oklahoma with a much-needed scoring and playmaking presence. Averaging over 16 points and 5 assists per game, Sherfield’s ability to control the tempo of the game and make plays in critical moments has been invaluable for the Sooners. His leadership and poise under pressure have helped Oklahoma close out games that in previous seasons may have slipped through their fingers.

Oklahoma has also seen steady contributions from their role players. Guards like Bijan Cortes and Jalen Hill have provided scoring off the bench and helped keep the pace of the game in Oklahoma’s favor. With a more balanced offensive approach and less reliance on isolation plays, the Sooners have become a much tougher team to defend against.

Defensive Identity and Toughness

While offense often grabs the headlines, Oklahoma’s defensive identity is what has truly elevated them to tournament contention. Under Moser, the Sooners have always been known for their gritty, hard-nosed defense, and this season is no different. They have consistently ranked among the nation’s best teams in defensive efficiency, and their ability to stifle opposing offenses has been a key factor in their success.

The Sooners have excelled in their transition defense, often turning stops into fast-break opportunities. Moser’s defensive schemes are designed to limit open looks from beyond the arc and force opponents into contested mid-range shots. Oklahoma has also excelled in defending without fouling, keeping their opponents off the free-throw line while contesting every shot.

The interior defense has been anchored by Tanner Groves and Umoja Gibson, who provide rim protection and physicality in the paint. Groves has become a deterrent for opposing teams looking to score in the post, while Gibson’s perimeter defense has been crucial in preventing opponents from establishing their outside game.

Oklahoma has also been able to guard the pick-and-roll effectively, a staple of many offensive systems in the Big 12. Their communication on defense has led to better rotations, with players fighting through screens and closing out on shooters quickly. As a result, they’ve been able to limit the scoring opportunities of some of the conference’s most potent offenses.

Key Wins and Tournament Resume

One of the most significant aspects of Oklahoma’s surge into tournament contention is their collection of high-quality wins. Bracketology isn’t just about a team’s performance within its conference; non-conference wins and victories over ranked teams also play a significant role in determining whether a team has a legitimate shot at an at-large bid.

Oklahoma’s resume has been buoyed by impressive victories over teams like Texas, Kansas State, and Baylor—three programs that are consistently ranked among the best in the Big 12. These victories not only give the Sooners valuable wins over top-tier opponents but also bolster their standing in the increasingly competitive NCAA Tournament conversation.

In particular, their victory over Baylor in late January was a statement win. The Sooners overcame a slow start and rallied in the second half to defeat the defending national champions in Waco. That win, along with their narrow but gritty road victories, proved that Oklahoma was capable of competing against the elite teams in the country and that their position in the tournament field was no fluke.

Riding Momentum: Closing Out the Season Strong

As the Sooners approach the final stretch of the regular season, momentum is firmly on their side. They’ve been on a hot streak, winning 8 of their last 10 games and steadily climbing in the conference standings. Their recent play has demonstrated not only their ability to compete in tight games but also their capacity to perform on the road — an important trait for any team looking to make a deep NCAA Tournament run.

But while their recent form has certainly been encouraging, the Sooners still have work to do. They must finish strong in the final weeks of the regular season to ensure they avoid slipping out of the bracket. With a tough slate of games remaining, including crucial matchups against conference rivals like Kansas and Texas Tech, the Sooners can further solidify their place in the NCAA Tournament field by taking care of business in these remaining contests.

What Needs to Happen for Oklahoma to Secure a Spot in the Tournament

While Oklahoma’s current standing in Bracketology is promising, nothing is guaranteed until Selection Sunday. The Sooners will need to continue their strong play in the final weeks of the regular season and likely secure a few more key wins to ensure they are comfortably included in the field.

Here are a few things that could make the difference for Oklahoma:

1. Closing Strong in the Big 12: The Big 12 is one of the most competitive conferences in the nation, and finishing the season strong will be crucial for Oklahoma’s seeding. Wins over top teams like Kansas and Texas Tech could give the Sooners the signature wins they need to seal their bid.
2. Consistency from Key Players: Oklahoma needs steady contributions from Tanner Groves and Grant Sherfield in every game. If these two can maintain their current level of play, Oklahoma will have the star power needed to keep competing with the best.
3. Avoiding Bad Losses: While the Sooners have racked up quality wins, they must avoid bad losses in the final stretch of the season. A slip-up against a lower-tier team in the Big 12 could hurt their resume and put them on the bubble come Selection Sunday.
4. Performing Well in the Big 12 Tournament: Even if the Sooners finish the regular season strong, a deep run in the Big 12 Tournament would solidify their position in the field and could help improve their seeding.

 Oklahoma’s Road to the NCAA Tournament

Oklahoma’s 2025 season has been filled with both challenges and triumphs, but as the team enters the final weeks of the regular season, their chances of making the NCAA Tournament are looking more and more promising. With their defense improving, their offense clicking, and a solid résumé featuring key wins, the Sooners are poised to make a strong push for a spot in the Big Dance.

If they can continue their upward trajectory

, avoid bad losses, and close out the season on a high note, Oklahoma could very well find themselves dancing in March. For head coach Porter Moser and the Oklahoma Sooners, the road to the NCAA Tournament is far from over — but for the first time in a while, the Sooners’ fans can start to feel confident that their team will be part of the tournament conversation.