Is now the time to buy Auburn or Duke to win the national championship?

As the college basketball season continues to unfold, fans, analysts, and bettors alike are closely monitoring the top contenders for the 2024–25 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship. Two of the most high-profile programs in the sport, Auburn and Duke, have shown signs of being in championship contention, making them intriguing options for those looking to place bets on the national title. Both teams are historically strong, have a mix of veteran and young talent, and are well-coached. But the question remains: is now the time to buy Auburn or Duke to win it all?

To answer this, we need to examine both teams’ strengths, weaknesses, and recent performances, as well as their potential path to the championship. Additionally, we’ll explore factors like their competition, how their rosters shape up, and the current landscape of college basketball to determine if investing in either Auburn or Duke as potential national champions is a smart move.

Auburn Tigers: A Contender with Defensive Prowess

Auburn, under head coach Bruce Pearl, has quietly become a consistent contender in college basketball. The Tigers have established themselves as a top program in the SEC, often making deep runs in the NCAA Tournament, and the 2024–25 season is no different. The Tigers possess a mixture of returning experience, fresh talent, and a defensive mentality that could prove valuable come March.

Strengths:

1. Elite Defense Auburn’s identity in recent years has been rooted in its elite defense, and the 2024–25 season is no different. The Tigers have one of the most formidable defensive units in the country, with length, athleticism, and intensity that overwhelm opposing offenses. Their ability to stifle shooting lanes, contest shots, and force turnovers could be a huge asset in the tournament. Auburn has the kind of defense that can carry a team through the grind of March Madness, where every game feels like a high-stakes battle.
2. Leadership from Senior Guard Wendell Green Jr. Wendell Green Jr. is one of Auburn’s key players, and his leadership and scoring ability are critical to the Tigers’ success. As the primary ball handler, Green controls the pace and flow of the game and has the ability to take over games when needed. His experience and ability to stay calm in pressure situations will be vital for Auburn as they make a potential run to the Final Four.
3. Balanced Scoring and Depth Auburn’s roster is filled with capable scorers at multiple positions. From Green’s playmaking and scoring ability to the interior presence of Johni Broome and the sharp shooting of freshman Allen Flanigan, the Tigers can hurt opponents in a variety of ways. This kind of depth will make Auburn difficult to defend against in a tournament setting, where matchups can determine a team’s fate.

Weaknesses:

1. Offensive Consistency While Auburn’s defense is their bread and butter, their offense has occasionally been inconsistent. Scoring droughts, particularly in crucial moments of games, can be a problem. For Auburn to make a deep run, they’ll need to ensure that their offense remains efficient and that they can consistently execute in the half-court.
2. Tournament Pressure Although the Tigers have made several NCAA Tournament appearances in recent years, they have yet to secure a national championship under Bruce Pearl. Auburn has often had strong teams that were capable of making deep runs but has occasionally fallen short in key moments. Can this version of the Tigers break through and advance all the way to the championship game? That’s the big question.
3. Lack of Tournament Experience at Key Positions The Tigers’ roster includes a lot of talent but not as much NCAA Tournament experience as some other top teams. While Green is a seasoned veteran, some of the younger players—like Broome—have yet to experience the pressure of March Madness. The ability to handle that pressure, especially in close games, will be crucial.

Conclusion on Auburn’s Chances:

Auburn has all the ingredients for a national championship run: elite defense, depth, and a standout leader in Wendell Green Jr. However, for Auburn to truly become a national champion contender, they will need to improve their offensive consistency and execute better in high-pressure situations. If the Tigers can fine-tune their offense, avoid cold shooting spells, and find ways to finish games, they have a legitimate chance to go all the way.

For bettors, buying Auburn now might be a reasonable bet if the price is favorable, but caution is needed. They have a lot of potential, but they’re still not as proven as some other top-tier programs. The Tigers are a team that could surprise, but there are still some unknowns in terms of how they’ll perform in the intense, high-pressure environment of the NCAA Tournament.

Duke Blue Devils: A Championship Pedigree

Duke is one of the most successful programs in college basketball history, and they enter the 2024–25 season with high expectations. Under head coach Jon Scheyer, who took over for the legendary Mike Krzyzewski, the Blue Devils have continued to be a top contender. With a blend of elite freshmen and experienced players, Duke is a legitimate championship contender, but is this the year they can cut down the nets again?

Strengths:

1. Elite Talent and Coaching Duke is known for recruiting some of the best high school players in the country, and 2024–25 is no exception. Freshman Maliq Brown, who brings versatility and defensive prowess, has shown flashes of brilliance. Additionally, Kyle Filipowski has the potential to be one of the top players in the nation, capable of impacting the game on both ends of the floor. Along with experienced players like Jeremy Roach, Duke has a mix of youth and experience that could propel them to a championship run.
2. Offensive and Defensive Balance Duke has one of the most balanced teams in college basketball, with the ability to score in transition, run effective half-court sets, and defend at a high level. Filipowski provides scoring in the paint and from the perimeter, while the team’s defense, led by Brown and others, is stifling. In an NCAA Tournament setting, teams that can perform well on both sides of the ball typically have the best chance of making a deep run.
3. Depth and Versatility Duke’s roster is deep, and their talent runs 10-deep. This depth is a huge advantage in the tournament, where injuries and fatigue can play a big role. Having multiple players capable of stepping up in different situations will help Duke weather the ups and downs of the tournament.

Weaknesses:

1. Inexperience at Key Positions While Duke has a wealth of talent, there is a fair amount of inexperience, especially in terms of NCAA Tournament experience. Scheyer’s first two years as head coach have been solid, but the Blue Devils have yet to fully prove they can win a national title under his leadership. Some of Duke’s young players will need to step up and perform under the immense pressure of March Madness.
2. Free-Throw and Clutch Play Issues Duke has struggled in clutch moments in past seasons, particularly at the free-throw line, which can be a major issue in tight tournament games. While Duke has the talent to blow teams out, in the NCAA Tournament, games often come down to a few key possessions, and the ability to convert at the free-throw line and in crunch-time situations will be crucial.
3. High Expectations and Pressure The pressure of playing at a school like Duke can sometimes be overwhelming, especially for younger players who have never experienced the intensity of March Madness. If Duke is to win the national title, they will need to handle the expectations and play up to their potential, without getting caught up in the media circus that surrounds the program.

Conclusion on Duke’s Chances:

Duke has everything a team needs to win a national championship: elite talent, strong coaching, and a balanced roster. With players like Filipowski and Roach leading the charge, they have the potential to go all the way. However, their lack of experience in crucial moments, combined with the pressure of high expectations, makes them a bit of an unknown. If they can execute in clutch situations and continue to develop chemistry, Duke is one of the most dangerous teams in the country.

For bettors, buying Duke now may be a wise decision, particularly if the odds are favorable. The Blue Devils have a high ceiling, and if they put it all together, they could easily win the national title.