An early analysis of the Texas Longhorns’ 2025 football schedule’s “confidence level”

As the Texas Longhorns prepare to enter the 2025 season, the expectations surrounding the program are sky-high. Under the leadership of head coach Steve Sarkisian, the Longhorns have shown notable improvement over the past few seasons, building momentum toward returning to prominence in college football. With Texas set to join the SEC in 2025, their schedule will take on even more significance as they begin their transition to one of the most competitive conferences in the nation. With the schedule set and opponents in place, it’s time to take a look at the 2025 Texas Longhorns’ football slate and break down its “confidence level” heading into the season.

This early analysis will dive into key games, areas of concern, and the overall difficulty of the 2025 schedule for Texas. By evaluating the opponents, the Longhorns’ strengths and weaknesses, and their trajectory under Sarkisian, we can get a sense of where the program stands and how confident fans and analysts should be in the team’s ability to compete at a high level.

Understanding the Context: Texas’ SEC Transition

Before diving into the specifics of the 2025 schedule, it’s important to frame the context surrounding the Texas Longhorns’ program. For years, Texas has been a member of the Big 12, but in 2025, they will be making the jump to the SEC, widely considered the most competitive conference in college football. This transition will introduce new challenges, including stronger competition, higher stakes, and more intense media scrutiny. However, Texas’ roster and recruiting under Sarkisian have steadily improved, and the program is beginning to show signs of turning the corner.

In this early analysis, we will examine how Texas’ 2025 schedule reflects this seismic shift in competition and what that means for their confidence level heading into the season.

Key Games to Watch in 2025

The 2025 schedule is packed with significant matchups, some of which will be a baptism by fire for the Longhorns as they adjust to the physical and emotional demands of the SEC. Below are some of the key games that will define Texas’ season:

1. Season Opener: Texas vs. New Mexico State

The 2025 season will kick off with a non-conference game against New Mexico State at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium. While the Aggies are not expected to be a serious contender, this game will provide an opportunity for Texas to establish a rhythm before they dive into their SEC schedule. This matchup will be crucial for Texas to start the season on the right foot and build some early confidence. The game should serve as a warm-up, allowing the team to fine-tune their schemes and get comfortable in a game-day environment.

Confidence Level: High. Texas should be heavily favored in this game, and anything less than a commanding victory would be concerning. This is an opportunity to build momentum, refine key areas of the team, and allow younger players to get valuable reps.

2. Texas vs. Alabama (at Alabama)

The first true test of Texas’ 2025 season comes in Tuscaloosa, where the Longhorns will face Alabama in an early-season SEC showdown. Alabama has long been the gold standard in college football under head coach Nick Saban, and while the Crimson Tide have experienced some turnover in recent years, they remain a formidable opponent. This will be a massive early-season test for Texas, especially with the pressure of entering the SEC.

With Quinn Ewers expected to be under center for Texas, this will be his first major test in the SEC, and the Longhorns’ defense will need to contain Alabama’s dynamic playmakers. Texas has recruited well in recent years, but going into a hostile environment like Bryant–Denny Stadium is a different challenge altogether.

Confidence Level: Moderate to High. While Alabama is always a tough opponent, Sarkisian’s offense has shown the ability to compete with elite programs, and Texas could pull off a major upset if they’re firing on all cylinders. Still, the sheer talent and experience of Alabama should give them the edge in this matchup.

3. Texas vs. Oklahoma (Red River Rivalry)

The Red River Rivalry is one of the most anticipated games of every season, and the 2025 edition will be no different. Texas and Oklahoma have a long-standing history of fierce competition, and this year’s game will be played under the bright lights of the Cotton Bowl. The matchup always carries extra significance in terms of Big 12 standings, but with Texas preparing for life in the SEC, this game will also have a lot of emotional weight.

Both teams will be looking to prove themselves in this high-stakes rivalry game, but Texas has the edge in terms of recent recruiting and overall team talent. The Longhorns will be looking to exact some revenge after Oklahoma has had the upper hand in recent years. While Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners’ offense will pose a challenge, Texas’ defensive unit will need to step up in a game where emotions run high and momentum is crucial.

Confidence Level: Moderate to High. Texas has a more talented roster on paper, and with the high stakes of the rivalry, they’ll be looking to prove themselves. However, rivalries often produce unpredictable outcomes, so this game could go either way.

4. Texas vs. LSU (at LSU)

LSU, one of the most iconic programs in the SEC, will be another early test for Texas in the 2025 season. This game, played in Baton Rouge at the legendary Tiger Stadium, will be an immense challenge for the Longhorns. Under head coach Brian Kelly, LSU has been a top contender in the SEC, and the Tigers boast one of the most talented rosters in the country, particularly on defense.

For Texas, this game presents a tremendous opportunity to test themselves against one of the best teams in the SEC. This will be a game where Texas’ ability to execute in hostile environments and deal with the speed and strength of the SEC will be scrutinized. The Longhorns’ offensive line will be tested by LSU’s aggressive defensive front, and Quinn Ewers will need to keep his composure against a defense loaded with future NFL talent.

Confidence Level: Low to Moderate. Texas will likely enter this game as the underdog, and given the difficulty of playing in Tiger Stadium, it’s hard to be overly confident in a victory. However, if the Longhorns can keep the game competitive and avoid turnovers, they could surprise LSU.

5. Texas vs. Georgia (at Texas)

One of the most exciting aspects of Texas’ 2025 schedule is a matchup with Georgia, the defending national champions. Kirby Smart has built Georgia into an absolute powerhouse, and the Bulldogs’ defense is one of the most imposing units in college football. This game will be a measuring stick for Texas, as they will face one of the most complete teams in the country.

Playing Georgia will give Texas a glimpse of what life in the SEC will be like, and it will be a huge test for the Longhorns’ offensive line and skill positions. The game will also be a significant moment for Sarkisian to show that his program can compete with the elite teams in the SEC, especially with the College Football Playoff on the line.

Confidence Level: Low. Georgia is one of the most complete teams in college football, and while Texas will be excited to host the Bulldogs, they will be underdogs in this matchup. Texas would need to play their absolute best to come away with a win.

Other Notable Games

In addition to the games listed above, Texas will face a handful of other SEC and non-conference opponents in 2025. Some of the notable matchups include:

• Texas vs. Auburn (at Texas): This will be another major test for the Longhorns as they square off against an Auburn program that has consistently been competitive in the SEC. The game will be an important opportunity for Texas to show its strength on both sides of the ball.
• Texas vs. Mississippi State (at Mississippi State): Mississippi State has been competitive in the SEC West, and playing on the road in Starkville will be a difficult challenge for Texas. With the atmosphere at Davis Wade Stadium, this will be a classic SEC road game that will test the Longhorns’ poise and execution.
• Texas vs. Arkansas (at Texas): Arkansas has made strides in recent years under head coach Sam Pittman, and they will be a tough opponent for Texas in 2025. This will be a critical game for the Longhorns as they aim to prove themselves against another SEC foe.

Overall Confidence Level of the 2025 Schedule

Taking everything into account—the strong competition from SEC foes, the challenges of playing in hostile environments, and the expectation for Texas to compete at a high level—the confidence level for the Longhorns’ 2025 season is moderate to high.

While Texas certainly has the talent to compete with top teams like Alabama, Georgia, and LSU, they will also face growing pains as they adjust to the rigors of the SEC. The Longhorns will need to execute at a high level week in and week out, and the games against elite SEC teams will be pivotal in determining whether they are ready for the next step in their program’s development.

If Sarkisian’s offense continues to improve and the defense steps up, Texas could surprise many and make a deep run in both the SEC and national conversation. However, the early tests against some of the country’s best teams will be the true measuring stick for where the Longhorns stand as they make their transition to the SEC.

In conclusion, the 2025 schedule for Texas is full of exciting challenges. The Longhorns’ confidence level will be tested, but with the right preparation, they could emerge from the season poised for future success in the SEC.