Mailbag 196: Auburn’s position in the preliminary bracket forecasts?

Welcome to Mailbag 196! This week, we’re diving into a subject that’s on the minds of many Auburn fans as the basketball season hits its stride and the countdown to March Madness begins: Auburn’s Position in the Preliminary Bracket Forecasts. It’s no secret that Auburn basketball, under head coach Bruce Pearl, has become one of the top programs in the Southeastern Conference (SEC) and the nation. But with the team’s recent ups and downs, Auburn fans are understandably curious about where their beloved Tigers stand in the NCAA Tournament projections as we enter the heart of the season.

The 2025 NCAA Tournament feels like it could be another one of those seasons where Auburn makes some serious noise, but there are many factors still at play. As we prepare for the stretch run, here are some questions from our listeners regarding Auburn’s spot in the preliminary bracket forecasts, what the Tigers need to do to secure a higher seed, and the potential roadblocks standing in their way.

1. Where does Auburn currently stand in the NCAA Tournament projections?

As of the latest bracketology updates from several key sources, including Joe Lunardi of ESPN and Jerry Palm of CBS Sports, Auburn is generally being projected as a Top 4 seed in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. While Auburn’s spot could fluctuate with a few key wins or losses in the coming weeks, a Top 4 seed would place the Tigers in an advantageous position for a deep run in the tournament, giving them a potential regional semifinal matchup at a neutral site.

As of now, Auburn has been slotted in the 2 to 4 seed range in most major bracket projections. This places them in a favorable position for an at-large bid, meaning they wouldn’t have to sweat it out on Selection Sunday. With Bruce Pearl at the helm and a talented roster, Auburn is poised to finish the season strong and maintain its position as a top-tier contender in the SEC.

Auburn has been performing well in the SEC and has a strong overall resume, which includes several notable victories against ranked teams. With a solid conference record and a couple of key wins against SEC rivals and out-of-conference opponents, Auburn’s spot in the preliminary bracket looks secure. However, the Tigers will still need to take care of business in conference play to ensure they remain firmly in the tournament picture.

2. What does Auburn need to do to secure a higher seed?

Auburn fans have every reason to be excited about their team’s potential, but the reality is that the Tigers’ seed in the tournament is far from guaranteed. In order for Auburn to secure a higher seed (think a 2 seed or possibly even a 1 seed), the Tigers will need to finish the regular season strong and potentially perform well in the SEC Tournament.

Here are a few things that Auburn can do to lock down a high seed:

a. Secure Quality Wins in the SEC

Auburn has already made waves by defeating some quality teams earlier in the season, but the SEC remains a gauntlet, and it’s crucial for Auburn to pick up as many conference wins as possible. The Tigers have a tough slate of games coming up, including matchups with Alabama, Kentucky, and Tennessee. If Auburn can take care of business at home and pick up a couple of road victories, the strength of their SEC schedule will continue to bolster their resume.

b. Avoid “Bad” Losses

Auburn has made it clear that they are a Top 10 team on most nights, but in order to avoid a slip in the seeding projections, the Tigers need to avoid losing to teams that are outside of the NCAA Tournament bubble. A loss to a lower-tier team could prove disastrous for Auburn’s seeding and may result in a drop from a 2 or 3 seed to a 4 or 5 seed, which would affect their potential matchups in the tournament.

c. Keep Their Defense at an Elite Level

One of Auburn’s biggest strengths over the last few seasons has been its defensive identity. Bruce Pearl’s defensive schemes have allowed Auburn to disrupt opposing offenses and force turnovers, which has often been a deciding factor in close games. If the Tigers continue to play tough defense and avoid giving up big runs, they will remain a difficult matchup for anyone in the NCAA Tournament, and it will keep them in the Top 4 seeding conversation.

d. Standout Individual Performances

Auburn will need its star players to perform at a high level in order to solidify a higher seed. Players like Wendell Green Jr., Johni Broome, and Zep Jasper are essential for the Tigers’ success. If they can continue to shine in key moments, it could boost the Tigers’ stock in the eyes of the selection committee. If players step up, take over games, and provide leadership on both ends of the floor, Auburn could cement their place as a true title contender and push themselves into a Top 2 seed.

3. What challenges does Auburn face in the coming weeks?

Despite Auburn’s impressive resume and positioning, there are a few challenges that could keep them from securing a higher seed or making a deep run in March.

a. Tough SEC Schedule

Auburn’s path to a higher seed won’t be an easy one, as the SEC is one of the most competitive conferences in college basketball. Every game is a potential trap game, and Auburn has to take each opponent seriously. Key matchups against teams like Alabama and Tennessee will be crucial, as they could either bolster Auburn’s resume or hurt their seeding prospects. Alabama, in particular, is one of the best teams in the nation, and winning that game would be a huge resume boost for the Tigers.

b. Inconsistent Play from Role Players

While Auburn has a solid starting lineup, they have sometimes struggled to get consistent play from their bench. In the past, the Tigers have had one or two players emerge as game-changers off the bench, and Auburn will need that to continue for the remainder of the season. If Auburn’s bench can provide scoring and stability in high-pressure situations, it will give the Tigers the depth needed to sustain a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.

c. Injuries and Health Concerns

Like every other team in the nation, Auburn’s hopes could be impacted by injuries. The Tigers have been fortunate to stay relatively healthy, but any injuries to key players like Wendell Green Jr., Johni Broome, or Zep Jasper could drastically affect Auburn’s seeding and tournament performance. Depth will become even more critical as the season progresses, especially if they face adversity.

d. SEC Tournament Performance

Auburn’s performance in the SEC Tournament could be a deciding factor in where they end up on Selection Sunday. While Auburn’s overall record will carry a lot of weight, a strong showing in the SEC Tournament could boost their seeding, while an early exit might make them vulnerable to a drop in the bracket. If Auburn makes it to the SEC Championship game or even wins the tournament, it would certainly improve their chances of landing a 2-seed or higher in the NCAA Tournament.

4. Can Auburn be a Final Four Contender?

The ultimate question for Auburn basketball fans is whether the Tigers have what it takes to make a deep run in March and even make it to the Final Four. Based on their current position, Auburn certainly has the talent, coaching, and defensive prowess to go deep. But the road to a Final Four appearance is filled with challenges. The Tigers will need to play at their best in every game, execute on both ends of the floor, and avoid any major hiccups along the way.

With Bruce Pearl at the helm, Auburn has proven that they can rise to the occasion on the big stage, and this year feels like another opportunity to make a significant run in the tournament. The Tigers have the pieces in place to make noise, and if they stay healthy, avoid bad losses, and get standout performances in key moments, a Final Four appearance is not out of reach.

5. Final Thoughts: What Should Auburn Fans Expect?

As the season progresses, Auburn fans should be cautiously optimistic about their team’s position in the preliminary NCAA Tournament projections. With a solid overall record, a strong SEC showing, and the potential for key wins in upcoming games, Auburn is on track for a Top 4 seed and could even push for a 2 or 1 seed if they perform well in the coming weeks. However, the Tigers need to continue improving in certain areas, especially consistency from their role players and avoiding any major setbacks in conference play.

The next few weeks are critical for Auburn, and the Tigers will need to stay focused and hungry if they want to make a deep run into the tournament. The path is clear, but it’s up to the players and coaching staff to take advantage of the opportunity before them.

Thanks for tuning into Mailbag 196! Keep the questions coming, and we’ll continue to break down everything you need to know about Auburn basketball as they make their march toward March Madness. Keep supporting the Tigers—they’re on the way!