On3’s JD PicKell Picks Baylor Over Texas A&M in CFP Round 1, Predicts Bold College Football Playoff Championship Winner

With the 2025 college football season rapidly approaching, the debates over who will earn a spot in the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff are heating up. Among the many voices chiming in, none have stirred quite as much buzz this week as On3 Sports’ JD PicKell. In a recent segment that quickly gained traction on social media, PicKell laid out his early predictions for the playoff field — and made a particularly bold claim by picking Baylor to knock off Texas A&M in Round 1.

The prediction sparked immediate conversation across fanbases and analysts alike, not just for the Baylor-over-A&M pick, but also for who PicKell believes will ultimately hoist the national championship trophy.

Here’s a full breakdown of PicKell’s playoff picks, why he believes Baylor has the edge, and his reasoning behind the surprise national title winner.

Why Baylor Over Texas A&M?

JD PicKell’s selection of Baylor over Texas A&M in the opening round caught many by surprise, especially considering the Aggies’ highly touted offseason under new head coach Mike Elko and the addition of transfer stars like wide receiver Kevin Concepcion and quarterback Marcel Reed.

But PicKell insists it’s about more than raw talent.

“Texas A&M is the more athletic team, no question,” PicKell said. “But Baylor’s continuity, discipline, and battle-tested experience give them the edge when it matters most — and that’s the postseason.”

PicKell pointed to Baylor’s revamped offensive line and the return of quarterback Sawyer Robertson as difference-makers. He also highlighted how Baylor’s defense, under coordinator Matt Powledge, has developed into one of the most opportunistic units in the Big 12.

“It’s not sexy, but Baylor doesn’t beat themselves. Texas A&M still has something to prove when it comes to performing under pressure in big moments,” PicKell added.

Texas A&M’s Case — Why Many Disagree

Many analysts and fans pushed back on PicKell’s pick, citing the Aggies’ massive improvements under Elko. The arrival of playmakers such as Concepcion, defensive lineman Shemar Stewart, and linebacker Taurean York has raised expectations to championship levels.

Texas A&M’s recruiting success and development this offseason have been among the best in the nation, and many believed the Aggies would not only win their opening playoff game but potentially reach the semifinals.

Former ESPN analyst and current SEC Network contributor Cole Cubelic commented on PicKell’s segment, saying:

“I understand loving Baylor’s discipline, but Texas A&M’s roster is too loaded. You’d be hard-pressed to find a more balanced team on both sides of the ball.”

The Full CFP Prediction Board

According to PicKell, here is how the 2025 College Football Playoff will play out:

First Round:

• (5) Baylor defeats (12) Texas A&M

• (6) Penn State defeats (11) Oregon

• (7) Ole Miss defeats (10) Notre Dame

• (8) Florida State defeats (9) Washington

Quarterfinals:

• (1) Georgia defeats (8) Florida State

• (5) Baylor defeats (4) Michigan

• (2) Ohio State defeats (7) Ole Miss

• (3) Alabama defeats (6) Penn State

Semifinals:

• (5) Baylor defeats (1) Georgia

• (3) Alabama defeats (2) Ohio State

National Championship:

• (3) Alabama defeats (5) Baylor

Why Baylor in the Semifinals?

If picking Baylor over Texas A&M was bold, selecting them to take down Michigan and then Georgia is outright daring. PicKell doubled down on his rationale.

“Baylor isn’t just sneaking into the playoff. They’re a veteran team with a ton of belief. They play like a unit with nothing to lose — and those are the most dangerous teams in the playoff,” PicKell said.

He believes Baylor’s balanced offense and opportunistic defense are tailor-made to survive the playoff grind, especially in an era where upsets will become more common under the expanded format.

Alabama’s Return to the Throne

While many expected JD PicKell to go with Georgia or Ohio State — both of whom enter the season as betting favorites — he instead backed the Crimson Tide to win it all.

“I think people forgot how fast Alabama reloaded,” PicKell said. “With Julian Sayin at quarterback and that defense flying around, they’re going to be terrifying come December.”

He pointed to the team’s energy under Kalen DeBoer, who has maintained Nick Saban’s disciplined culture while adding a more modern offensive scheme.

“This Alabama team is built to win shootouts and slugfests. I don’t think there’s a team in the country that can match that versatility.”

Fan Reaction: Mixed Emotions from Aggie Nation

As expected, Texas A&M fans did not take the Baylor pick lightly. Many took to X (formerly Twitter) to question PicKell’s credibility and accused him of dismissing A&M’s proven growth.

One Aggie fan wrote:

“This is ridiculous. A&M has five-star talent everywhere and finally has leadership. Baylor isn’t beating us, period.”

Another responded:

“Baylor is a good team, but let’s not pretend they’ve faced the SEC grind. JD PicKell is trolling.”

However, some fans appreciated the outside perspective, with one Baylor fan writing:

“We’ve been underrated before. This time, we’re bringing the receipts. Let’s shock the world.”

Could This Prediction Come True?

While the majority of analysts still favor Georgia, Ohio State, or Alabama to take home the trophy, PicKell’s bold projection shines a light on just how unpredictable the new playoff format could become.

For teams like Baylor — built around chemistry and execution — the door to glory may never be more open than it is now. For Texas A&M, it’s yet another challenge to overcome in its journey toward national contention under Mike Elko.

If nothing else, JD PicKell’s playoff prediction has succeeded in doing what all preseason takes should — igniting excitement, conversation, and the hope that anything can happen when the games begin.

JD PicKell may not have chosen the safe route in his CFP predictions, but he’s reminded fans of one crucial truth about college football: the game isn’t played on paper. Whether his Baylor over A&M pick proves prescient or laughable by season’s end, it’s another reason to tune in every Saturday this fall.

The College Football Playoff is finally wide open — and JD PicKell just threw gasoline on the fire.