Dom Luszczyszyn, a statistical analyst from The Athletic, states that Leon Draisaitl’s contract is the richest in Oilers history and also one of the top bargains in the entire NHL.
In the realm of NHL contracts, particularly those of star players, the balance between financial commitment and on-ice value is critically scrutinized. Dom Luszczyszyn, a renowned statistical analyst from The Athletic, has highlighted that Leon Draisaitl’s current deal not only stands as the richest in Edmonton Oilers history but also ranks among the top bargains league-wide. This duality speaks volumes about both the player’s exceptional value and the team’s strategic acumen. To unpack this assertion thoroughly, we must analyze the contract specifics, Draisaitl’s performance metrics, comparative league data, salary cap considerations, historical context, and the broader implications for the Oilers’ competitive future.
1. Contract Details and Context
Leon Draisaitl signed an eight-year extension with the Edmonton Oilers in 2021, carrying an annual average value (AAV) of approximately $8.5 million. At the time of signing, this contract was seen as a significant commitment, underscoring the Oilers’ belief in Draisaitl’s ability to be a franchise cornerstone. The specifics are as follows:
Duration: 8 years (2022-2030)
AAV: $8.5 million
Total Value: Approximately $68 million
This contract is notable for its long-term stability, ensuring Draisaitl’s presence in Edmonton through his prime years. It is also a reflection of the team’s confidence in his sustained elite performance and leadership.
2. Player Performance and Value
Draisaitl’s on-ice production has been extraordinary, often ranked among the league’s top scorers and point producers. His advanced analytics and traditional stats reinforce his value:
Points per game: Over eight seasons, Draisaitl has averaged around 1.3 points per game, consistently ranking among the NHL’s top scorers.
Goals and Assists: Regularly surpassing 50 points annually, with seasons exceeding 100 points, showcasing his offensive dominance.
Corsi and Fenwick metrics: Elite puck possession stats that attest to his influence on puck control and offensive zone dominance.
Expected Goals (xG): High xG totals, indicating his scoring opportunities are sustainable and not merely luck-driven.
Beyond raw stats, Draisaitl’s versatility — capable of playing both center and wing, thriving in high-pressure situations, and anchoring Edmonton’s power play — amplifies his value. His leadership and hockey IQ further elevate his importance to the team.
Market Value and Comparable Players:
When evaluating whether Draisaitl’s contract is a bargain, analysts compare his AAV to other top-tier NHL centers and forwards. Players like Nathan MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby, and Auston Matthews command similar or higher salaries but differ in age, contract length, and production consistency.
3. The “Bargain” Narrative: Why It’s a Top Deal in the NHL
While $8.5 million might seem substantial, Luszczyszyn’s assertion positions this contract as a bargain relative to Draisaitl’s performance and market value. Several factors contribute:
Elite Production at a Relative Discount:
Draisaitl’s point-per-game pace and offensive impact rival or surpass many players earning significantly more. His contract provides the Oilers with premium production at a price well below what similar players are paid.
Age and Contract Length:
At signing, Draisaitl was 25, entering his prime. An eight-year deal secures his services until age 33, allowing the Oilers to capitalize on his peak years without overextending financially into declining years.
League-Wide Salary Trends:
The NHL’s escalating salary cap and rising player salaries, especially for top-line centers, mean that contracts like Draisaitl’s, which offer high performance for relatively moderate AAVs, are rare and highly valuable.
Efficiency in Cap Space Utilization:
The Oilers’ management, by locking Draisaitl into this deal, avoids bidding wars or overpayment that could inflate salaries for similar players elsewhere, effectively creating a “bargain” by securing elite talent at a prudent price.
4. Historical Context: The Richest in Oilers History
Prior to Draisaitl’s contract, Edmonton’s most lucrative deals included:
Connor McDavid’s Contract: Signed in 2017, with an AAV of $12.5 million, the highest in NHL history at the time, reflecting his status as the league’s premier player.
Taylor Hall’s Deal: Signed in 2014 at roughly $6 million, which was a bargain for his production at that time.
Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Contracts: Notable deals but nowhere near Draisaitl’s in terms of value or magnitude.
Draisaitl’s recent contract surpasses McDavid’s in terms of total dollar commitment but is considered a bargain when factoring in his on-ice contributions relative to the salary. It’s also the largest in terms of total value in Oilers history, reflecting the team’s desire to maintain their core’s stability.
5. Comparative Analysis: Draisaitl’s Contract in the NHL Landscape
Analyzing other top contracts provides perspective:
Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche): $6.3 million AAV, signed in 2016, with comparable offensive production.
Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs): $11.6 million AAV, reflecting a premium for goal-scoring.
Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins): $8.7 million AAV (pre-cap era), with comparable leadership and production.
Draisaitl’s $8.5 million positions him as one of the best “value” contracts among elite centers — delivering star-level production at a price below many of his peers. His contract’s relative bargain status stems from this comparison.
Advanced Analytics and Expected Value:
Using models like WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and xG metrics, Draisaitl consistently ranks among the top in offensive production relative to his salary. This further justifies Luszczyszyn’s claim that the deal is a league-wide bargain.
6. Broader Implications for the Oilers
Securing such a contract has multiple strategic benefits:
Cap Flexibility:
The manageable AAV allows Edmonton room for other roster improvements, signings, or extensions, maintaining competitiveness without overextending financially.
Building a Core:
Locking in Draisaitl long-term solidifies Edmonton’s core, providing stability and continuity for team development.
Competitive Edge:
The contract’s value enables Edmonton to allocate resources elsewhere, such as bolstering the defense or acquiring depth players, enhancing overall team performance.
Leadership and Morale:
Draisaitl’s leadership and status as a franchise player foster team chemistry and fan engagement.
7. Future Outlook and Contract Sustainability
While the deal is a bargain now, questions remain about sustainability:
Inflation of Salaries:
As the cap rises, the relative value of the contract might diminish, but given Draisaitl’s ongoing production, it should remain a good deal.
Potential Decline:
Aging and wear-and-tear could impact performance, but the length of the deal allows Edmonton to manage transition periods effectively.
Trade or Re-negotiation Possibilities:
The long-term deal provides flexibility, with options for extension or trade if circumstances change.
Dom Luszczyszyn’s characterization of Draisaitl’s contract as both the richest in Oilers history and among the top bargains in the NHL encapsulates a nuanced understanding of player valuation and strategic management. The deal exemplifies how a team can secure elite talent at a reasonable cost, leveraging analytics and market trends. It also underscores Draisaitl’s exceptional value to Edmonton — providing maximum return on investment and positioning the Oilers for sustained success.
In the broader context, this contract embodies a modern NHL philosophy: investing heavily in star players while maintaining flexibility through smart contract structuring. As the league continues to evolve, contracts like Draisaitl’s serve as benchmarks for balancing performance, value, and financial sustainability. For Edmonton, this deal not only signifies a historic financial commitment but also a strategic triumph in assembling a competitive, championship-caliber team.
