Dodgers’ $182 Million Gamble on Trevor Bauer Now Seen as One of the Worst Contracts in MLB Free Agency History

When the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Trevor Bauer to a three-year, $102 million contract in February 2021, with an opt-out after each season and incentives that could push it well over $182 million, they believed they were acquiring the reigning National League Cy Young winner at the peak of his powers. Instead, they inherited controversy, chaos, and what is now widely regarded as one of the worst financial decisions in Major League Baseball history.

At the time, the deal was historic — the highest annual average value (AAV) for a pitcher in MLB history. Bauer, fresh off a dominant pandemic-shortened season with the Cincinnati Reds, was supposed to be the final piece in a rotation that already included Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Julio Urías. The Dodgers, coming off their first World Series title in 32 years, envisioned a dynasty built around elite pitching.

But within months, the investment unraveled in spectacular fashion. Bauer’s 2021 season ended abruptly amid allegations of sexual assault, triggering legal investigations, a prolonged administrative leave, and eventually a record-breaking 324-game suspension (later reduced). He never pitched again for the Dodgers. He never addressed the clubhouse. And the franchise never recovered its financial or reputational losses.

More than three years later, as other mega-contracts yield All-Star performances and playoff success, the Dodgers’ gamble on Bauer remains a cautionary tale — a stunning blend of poor judgment, PR disaster, and contractual mismanagement that continues to cast a long shadow over one of baseball’s most glamorous organizations.

The Allure of Trevor Bauer

To understand how such a costly mistake occurred, you have to consider the allure that surrounded Bauer in early 2021. He had just posted a 1.73 ERA in 11 starts during the COVID-shortened 2020 season and won the Cy Young with the Reds. He was a former top prospect with electric stuff, elite spin rates, and a deep arsenal of pitches.

He was also a polarizing figure — outspoken, active on social media, and known for feuds with teammates, media members, and even fans. But for Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, who had long succeeded with analytically-driven decisions and calculated risks, Bauer represented value: a high-strikeout ace in his prime.

The front office reportedly vetted Bauer’s personality and off-field behavior. What they found didn’t deter them. Neither did his reputation as a clubhouse loner or the accusations of online harassment levied against him in the past.

“We believed in his talent and his ability to help us win,” Friedman said at the time. “That’s always our goal.”

The Dodgers beat out the Mets and others to land Bauer with a complex, incentive-laden deal that paid him $40 million in 2021 — more than the entire payrolls of several MLB teams.

That investment would haunt them almost immediately.

The Scandal That Shattered the Deal

In June 2021, a San Diego woman came forward with allegations that Bauer had sexually assaulted her during two encounters. The allegations included disturbing descriptions of physical violence and coercion. Bauer maintained the interactions were consensual and denied any wrongdoing. Legal proceedings followed, and a temporary restraining order was denied by a judge. No criminal charges were filed.

But the damage to Bauer’s reputation — and the Dodgers’ — was done.

Major League Baseball placed him on administrative leave, and the Dodgers, already facing intense public backlash, distanced themselves. Players reportedly didn’t want him back in the clubhouse. Sponsors pulled support. The team’s once-pristine image took a direct hit.

In April 2022, MLB suspended Bauer for 324 games — the longest non-lifetime suspension in league history under the league’s domestic violence policy. Bauer appealed and later had the suspension reduced to 194 games. The Dodgers released him in January 2023, eating the final year of his contract.

He never threw another pitch in Major League Baseball.

The Financial Fallout

The Dodgers ended up paying Bauer more than $60 million for 17 starts. That breaks down to over $3.5 million per appearance — and nearly $9,000 per pitch thrown in a Dodgers uniform.

But the financial loss was only part of the story. Equally damaging was the roster disruption and the reputational blow. The contract limited the team’s flexibility in the 2021 and 2022 seasons, preventing potential moves at the trade deadline and creating clubhouse uncertainty.

More importantly, it forced the organization to reckon with its identity. The Dodgers had long been seen as a model franchise — a perfect blend of analytics, development, spending, and character. The Bauer saga cracked that image.

“It went against everything we say we stand for,” said one anonymous team official in a post-mortem interview with The Athletic. “We bet on talent over character, and it blew up.”

Even the structure of the deal — which was praised at the time for its short-term opt-outs — backfired. It front-loaded Bauer’s salary, making the cost more painful when he was sidelined. Had the Dodgers offered a more traditional long-term deal, they might have been able to spread out the hit.

Instead, they were stuck — financially, ethically, and publicly.

A Legacy Still Felt

To this day, the Trevor Bauer contract remains a flashpoint among Dodgers fans and analysts. Some still defend the initial decision as a calculated risk. Others call it an unforgivable lapse in judgment.

From a performance standpoint, it clearly ranks among the worst contracts in recent history — on par with Carl Crawford’s $142 million deal, Jacoby Ellsbury’s lost years with the Yankees, or Chris Davis’ $161 million disaster in Baltimore.

But unlike those deals, which were derailed by injury or regression, the Bauer contract imploded because of character — the very trait Friedman and the Dodgers were once praised for prioritizing.

Now, it’s a lesson carved into the organization’s playbook: no amount of talent is worth ignoring warning signs.

“It’s something we all had to learn from,” Friedman later admitted. “We’ll do better.”

Bauer’s Post-MLB Path

Since his release, Bauer has pitched in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars and in 2024 signed a deal in Mexico. He has continued to proclaim his innocence and remains active on social media, producing YouTube content and attempting to shape his narrative.

No MLB team has expressed serious interest in signing him again, despite his talent. The stigma — and the risk — remains too great.

For the Dodgers, the goal is simple: move forward. The organization has returned to the postseason, continued developing elite talent, and made splashy free-agent signings (including Shohei Ohtani’s historic $700 million deal).

But the Bauer contract stands as a warning: even the smartest franchises can make grave errors when blinded by upside.

The Dodgers’ $182 million bet on Trevor Bauer wasn’t just a financial failure — it was a foundational misstep that compromised the culture of one of baseball’s most respected franchises.

It serves as a reminder that in the modern MLB landscape, winning isn’t just about WAR and ERA — it’s about integrity, due diligence, and aligning your actions with your stated values.

For the Dodgers, Becoming Andy represents a rising star, a future hope.

But Remembering Trevor will always represent a mistake — one they’ll never repeat.