Josh Pate considers Oklahoma a major wildcard team for the 2025 college football season, with high potential and uncertainty.

As college football gears up for the 2025 season, experts and analysts have been weighing in on which programs will rise, which will fall, and which squads are shrouded in uncertainty. Among the teams generating buzz, Oklahoma has emerged as one of the biggest wildcard programs, according to veteran analyst Josh Pate. This perspective stems from a mix of compelling potential, key roster changes, coaching dynamics, and the challenge of navigating the fiercely competitive SEC landscape.

In this article, we dive into why Pate views Oklahoma as a wildcard, unpack the factors that fuel this uncertainty, and explore what the Sooners must do to capitalize on their promise—or avoid a stumble.

The Context: Oklahoma’s Transition to the SEC and Recent Performance

Oklahoma’s 2025 campaign will mark its third season competing in the Southeastern Conference, widely regarded as the toughest conference in college football. The move from the Big 12 to the SEC has been met with high expectations but also significant growing pains.

• Performance Challenges: Oklahoma’s offense struggled at times in 2024, and the defense faced tough matchups against elite SEC opponents.

• New Coaching Staff Dynamics: Head coach Brent Venables is still imprinting his identity on the team, with his defensive background slowly transforming the roster’s culture and strategy.

• Roster Turnover: Transfer portal activity and recruiting classes have brought in talent, but integrating new players remains a challenge.

These factors set the stage for a season where the potential is high, but so too is the risk of inconsistency.

Why Josh Pate Sees Oklahoma as a Wildcard

Josh Pate’s wildcard designation for Oklahoma is rooted in the following key elements:

1. Quarterback Play: The Mateer Effect

John Mateer, the Washington State transfer, is widely seen as a game-changer for Oklahoma’s offense. His dual-threat ability and proven production (over 3,000 passing yards and nearly 900 rushing yards in 2024) give the Sooners a dynamic leader.

• High Ceiling: Mateer’s skills could elevate Oklahoma to a potent offensive force capable of competing with SEC powerhouses.

• Adjustment Period: The unknown is how quickly Mateer adapts to the new system, coaching style, and level of competition.

Pate notes that Mateer’s mental approach—such as deleting social media and limiting distractions—could play a critical role in his success.

2. Defensive Transformation Under Venables

Brent Venables, a defensive guru, is slowly reshaping Oklahoma’s defense. The transition requires players to learn complex schemes and execute with precision against SEC offenses.

• Potential for Improvement: If the defense rises to the challenge, it could become a formidable unit that keeps the Sooners competitive.

• Learning Curve: The system’s complexity and new personnel bring uncertainty about consistency and execution.

Pate highlights this as a crucial factor that could tip Oklahoma either toward a breakout or another middling season.

3. Depth and Roster Composition

The depth chart includes a mix of experienced players and promising newcomers. However, injuries and attrition, common in football, could expose weaknesses.

• Key Position Battles: Several starting spots remain open or competitive, adding uncertainty.

• Transfer Portal Impact: While bringing in talent, transfers can disrupt chemistry or take time to gel.

Josh Pate believes roster depth will be tested heavily, making it a wildcard element.

4. SEC Competition and Scheduling

The SEC’s toughness cannot be overstated. Oklahoma’s schedule includes matchups against perennial powerhouses and rising programs.

• Tough Road Games: Travel and hostile environments test team resilience.

• Opportunity for Statement Wins: Upsetting top SEC teams could vault Oklahoma into serious contention.

Pate argues that how Oklahoma navigates this gauntlet will define their season.

Potential Scenarios for Oklahoma in 2025

Given these factors, Oklahoma’s season could unfold in several ways:

Scenario 1: Breakout Success

• Mateer flourishes as an SEC quarterback, leading a balanced, explosive offense.

• Defense gels under Venables, forcing turnovers and limiting big plays.

• Key players stay healthy and role players contribute depth.

• Oklahoma secures signature wins against ranked SEC foes.

This scenario puts Oklahoma back into College Football Playoff conversations, validating Pate’s belief in their high ceiling.

Scenario 2: Mediocre Middling

• Mateer performs well but occasionally struggles adapting to pressure.

• Defensive inconsistencies lead to close losses.

• Injuries or lack of depth limit late-season effectiveness.

• Oklahoma finishes middle of the SEC standings, competitive but not dominant.

This outcome reflects Oklahoma’s “wildcard” nature—solid but not spectacular.

Scenario 3: Disappointing Season

• Offense stalls due to system adjustment or personnel issues.

• Defense fails to improve, surrendering big plays.

• Injuries and roster turnover destabilize team chemistry.

• Oklahoma finishes near the bottom of the SEC standings.

This scenario is the risk Pate warns about, emphasizing the precariousness of Oklahoma’s position.

Key Players and Coaches to Watch

Josh Pate identifies several individuals critical to Oklahoma’s 2025 fortunes:

• John Mateer (QB): The linchpin of the offense whose performance will largely dictate team success.

• Brent Venables (Head Coach): His ability to manage game situations and continue defensive improvement is paramount.

• Supporting Skill Players: Wide receivers and running backs who can exploit Mateer’s playmaking.

• Defensive Standouts: Linebackers and secondary players tasked with executing Venables’ schemes.

These figures embody the team’s potential and vulnerability.

The Role of Fan and Media Expectations

Oklahoma football carries a storied legacy, and fan expectations remain sky-high despite recent struggles. This pressure can be motivating but also daunting.

Josh Pate notes that managing expectations, especially amid uncertainty, will be key. The “wildcard” tag means the Sooners could defy or succumb to external pressure, affecting team morale and focus.

Josh Pate’s assessment of Oklahoma as a wildcard team is a nuanced one. The Sooners boast immense potential, spearheaded by a talented quarterback and a visionary coach, yet face substantial hurdles from SEC competition, roster turnover, and the challenge of integrating new systems.

The 2025 season will test Oklahoma’s resilience, adaptability, and execution. Should everything click, they could surprise many and reassert themselves as a national powerhouse. Conversely, struggles with consistency and injuries could relegate them to the lower tier of the conference.

For fans, analysts, and opponents alike, Oklahoma’s 2025 campaign promises to be a compelling story of possibility and uncertainty—a true wildcard in the college football landscape.