Late for Work: Evaluating Lamar Jackson’s draft position, where does he stand among the top quarterback draft values of the millennium based on performance and upside?
In the ever-evolving landscape of the NFL, the valuation of players—particularly quarterbacks—often hinges on draft position, perceived upside, and on-field performance. Among these, Lamar Jackson stands out as a compelling case study: a quarterback who entered the league with questions about his passing ability but quickly proved his worth with his dynamic dual-threat style. To truly appreciate Jackson’s draft value, we must analyze his journey, performance, and how he compares to other top quarterbacks selected in the 2000s and beyond, considering both initial draft position and subsequent impact.
This comprehensive exploration aims to evaluate where Lamar Jackson ranks among the best quarterback draft values of the millennium, based on his draft position, performance, and potential upside, while also reflecting on the broader context of NFL drafting strategies.
I. The Context: NFL Drafting and Quarterback Valuations
The NFL Draft is a complex process driven by scouting, team needs, perceived upside, and risk assessment. Quarterbacks tend to command the most attention because they often determine a franchise’s success or failure. Historically, quarterbacks drafted early—often in the first round—are expected to be franchise changers, but the draft has also seen numerous late-round or undrafted quarterbacks outperform their initial valuations.
Draft value refers to the difference between a player’s expected contribution based on their draft position and their actual performance. A “draft value pick” is typically a player who exceeds expectations relative to their draft slot, often considered one of the best “value picks” of their draft class.
II. Lamar Jackson: Draft Profile and Expectations
Lamar Jackson was selected by the Baltimore Ravens with the 32nd overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft—initially a first-round pick, but famously the last selection of that round. The selection drew attention because Jackson was a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback from Louisville, known for his electrifying rushing ability but with questions about his passing accuracy and overall NFL readiness.
Draft Position: A Late First-Round Pick
Jackson’s selection at 32nd overall was significant. It was the final pick of the first round—often seen as a “value” position, but also one that carried uncertainty. Many analysts questioned whether Jackson’s skill set could translate fully to the NFL, especially his passing accuracy and decision-making.
Initial perception: Jackson was viewed as a high-ceiling, high-risk pick. Some teams prioritized his athleticism and potential to be a dual-threat, while others doubted his ability to develop as a consistent passer. His draft position reflected both excitement about his potential and skepticism about his limitations.
III. Lamar Jackson’s Performance and Impact
Despite these concerns, Lamar Jackson has exceeded many expectations, becoming one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league.
1. MVP and Performance
Jackson won the NFL Most Valuable Player (MVP) award in 2019, just his second season, showcasing his incredible impact. His unique skill set—blazing speed, agility, and arm strength—transformed the Ravens’ offense.
Key performance highlights:
2019 MVP season: 1,206 rushing yards, 36 passing touchdowns, and a 113.3 passer rating.
Multiple Pro Bowl selections.
Franchise record-holder for rushing yards by a quarterback.
Consistent playoff appearances, with notable wins.
2. Evolving Passing Game
Initially criticized for his passing accuracy, Jackson improved significantly, demonstrating growth in his decision-making, accuracy, and reading defenses. This development has been critical in elevating his status from a mere rushing threat to a well-rounded quarterback.
3. Durability and Leadership
Jackson’s athleticism and resilience allowed him to stay healthy, and his leadership qualities have been praised by teammates and coaches.
IV. Quantifying Jackson’s Draft Value
To assess Lamar Jackson’s draft value, we compare his performance metrics, accolades, and impact against his draft position.
1. Performance Metrics and Achievements
MVP Award (2019): Rare for a player drafted outside the top 10.
Pro Bowl selections: Multiple.
Rushing yards: One of the few quarterbacks to regularly compile over 1,000 yards rushing in a season.
Passing efficiency: Improved significantly, with a career passer rating often above league average.
2. Impact Relative to Draft Cost
Jackson’s early-round selection cost the Ravens a first-round pick, which typically commands high expectations. His performance, especially his MVP-winning season, indicates that he has provided extraordinary value—outperforming other quarterbacks drafted later and even some drafted higher.
3. Longevity and Upside
While Jackson’s career is still in progress, his ability to stay healthy, evolve, and maintain high performance suggests a high ceiling—making him one of the most valuable quarterbacks relative to his draft position.
V. Comparing Lamar Jackson to Other Top Quarterback Draft Values of the Millennium
To contextualize Jackson’s draft value, we must compare his journey with other quarterbacks drafted in the last two decades who have exceeded expectations relative to their draft positions.
A. Notable Quarterbacks with High Draft Value
1. Tom Brady (6th Round, 2000)
Drafted: 199th overall.
Achievements: 7 Super Bowl titles, 3 MVPs, considered the GOAT.
Impact: Undeniably the most valuable late-round pick in NFL history.
Comparison: Brady’s story is the epitome of draft value—an unheralded pick who became the greatest of all time. Jackson’s impact, while significant, is more in the context of a top-32 pick, but his MVP and offensive influence mirror Brady’s early promise.
2. Dak Prescott (4th Round, 2016)
Drafted: 135th overall.
Achievements: Multiple Pro Bowls, franchise leader in several passing categories.
Impact: Transformed the Cowboys’ offense and exceeded expectations for a mid-round pick.
Comparison: Prescott’s rise from a mid-round pick to a franchise cornerstone aligns with Jackson’s trajectory as a late first-round pick who became a league MVP-caliber player.
3. Russell Wilson (3rd Round, 2012)
Drafted: 75th overall.
Achievements: Super Bowl champion, multiple Pro Bowls, high passer rating.
Impact: Wilson outperformed his draft position significantly.
Comparison: Wilson’s late-round selection and subsequent superstar status make him a prime example of draft value. Jackson’s early first-round status puts him ahead in initial valuation but similar in impact.
4. Patrick Mahomes (First Round, 2017)
Drafted: 10th overall.
Achievements: Super Bowl MVP, multiple Pro Bowls, league MVP.
Impact: One of the most talented and impactful quarterbacks of his generation.
Comparison: Mahomes was drafted early, but Jackson’s MVP and impact in fewer seasons highlight his exceptional value relative to his draft position.
B. Evaluating Jackson Against These Benchmarks
Lamar Jackson’s MVP season, combined with his offensive influence and ongoing development, makes him one of the best quarterback draft values of the millennium. He shares traits with Wilson and Prescott—players who exceeded expectations from mid-to-late rounds—though his early first-round status makes him somewhat unique.
Key points:
Jackson’s draft position (32nd overall) was relatively high compared to Wilson or Prescott but below Mahomes or Brady.
His impact, especially as a dual-threat QB, rivals or surpasses many quarterbacks drafted higher.
His potential upside remains significant, given his age and development trajectory.
VI. Limitations and Considerations
While Jackson’s impact is impressive, it’s important to recognize limitations:
Durability and consistency: Injuries and inconsistency could affect his long-term value.
Passing development: Continued evolution as a passer is crucial for sustained elite status.
Team context: The Ravens’ offensive scheme and supporting cast influence his performance.
Furthermore, the landscape of quarterback evaluation is nuanced, with teams weighing athleticism, passing ability, leadership, and system fit differently.
Lamar Jackson was drafted 32nd overall in 2018—initially perceived as a high-upside but risky pick.
He has exceeded expectations with an MVP season, Pro Bowl honors, and evolving as a passer.
His draft value is comparable to other notable quarterbacks who outperformed their draft slots, such as Wilson and Prescott.
While not yet on the level of all-time legends like Brady or Mahomes, Jackson’s impact relative to his draft position qualifies him as one of the premier quarterback draft values of the millennium.
Lamar Jackson stands among the top quarterback draft values of the last two decades, especially considering his early-round selection and subsequent performance. His combination of athleticism, leadership, and upside makes him a standout example of how a player can surpass initial expectations and significantly impact a franchise.
As his career progresses, Jackson’s potential to solidify his legacy and further elevate his draft value remains high. In the broader context of NFL history, he exemplifies the importance of evaluating talent beyond just draft position, highlighting the dynamic nature of quarterback valuation.
