A major change to the college football playoffs appears to be imminent:
A significant transformation is underway in college football, with an expanded playoff system poised to reshape the postseason landscape. The current four-team College Football Playoff (CFP) is set to evolve, with discussions intensifying around a 14 or 16-team format. This shift is primarily driven by the Southeastern Conference (SEC) and Big Ten, two of the sport’s most influential conferences. Their push for expansion aims to secure more automatic playoff spots and enhance revenue opportunities.
The SEC and Big Ten are advocating for a playoff structure that would grant each conference up to four automatic bids, potentially leading to a 14-team model. This proposal also includes provisions for at-large bids, possibly for independent teams like Notre Dame, and automatic access for the highest-ranked Group of Five champion. Such a structure would significantly diminish the role of the CFP selection committee, as teams would be primarily seeded based on rankings rather than subjective decisions.
In parallel, discussions are underway about a 16-team playoff format, which would introduce a play-in system. This model could potentially replace conference championships and would require SEC teams to play nine conference games, aligning with the Big Ten’s scheduling approach.
The proposed expansion would have profound effects on various conferences and teams. For instance, Texas schools, particularly those in the SEC like Texas and Texas A&M, stand to benefit from increased playoff opportunities due to the additional automatic bids. However, this could also reduce matchups with smaller Texas programs, such as UTSA or UTEP, which rely on games against Power Four opponents for financial support.
Non-conference games, such as high-profile matchups between SEC and Big Ten teams, are expected to become more common. These games not only enhance the sport’s appeal but also offer significant financial incentives through media rights and ticket sales.
The expansion to a 14 or 16-team playoff necessitates careful consideration of scheduling to avoid conflicts with the NFL postseason. Proposed dates for first-round games include mid-December, with quarterfinals around the turn of the year. Semifinals could be scheduled in early January, and the national championship might be played on the Sunday before the Super Bowl to maximize viewership.
Financially, the expanded playoff is expected to generate substantial revenue. The current 12-team format has already led to record-breaking attendance and viewership, and further expansion could attract additional television contracts, potentially increasing annual revenue from the current $470 million.
Despite the momentum for expansion, challenges remain. Some conferences, like the ACC, have expressed concerns about the implications of a larger playoff field. ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips has indicated that while the conference supports future expansion, it believes that broader issues, such as Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) regulations and the transfer portal, need to be addressed first.
Additionally, the Big Ten’s impending television deal could influence its stance on expansion. With the potential to become the first conference to secure a $1 billion annual television contract, the Big Ten may become less reliant on CFP revenue, which could affect its position on further playoff expansion.
The transition to a 12-team playoff is set to occur by the 2026 season. Following this, discussions will continue regarding further expansion to 14 or 16 teams. The outcome of these discussions will depend on negotiations among conference commissioners, television networks, and other stakeholders. As college football evolves, the expanded playoff system promises to bring increased competition, broader fan engagement, and enhanced financial opportunities to the sport.
