Hugh Freeze needs to show significant improvement in his third season, with at least 8 wins likely required to keep his job, depending on Auburn’s competitiveness in the SEC.

When Auburn University hired Hugh Freeze as their head football coach in 2022, the expectations were sky-high. The Tigers, with their rich football tradition, had gone through a series of transitions in recent years, and Freeze was brought in to bring stability, improve recruiting, and most importantly, restore the program to its rightful place in the SEC pecking order. However, after two seasons, Freeze’s tenure has not yet yielded the kind of success that many anticipated, leaving many fans and analysts questioning how long Auburn’s administration will stick with the former Ole Miss coach.

At 11-17 after his first two seasons at Auburn, Freeze has shown flashes of potential, but he has also struggled to make his mark in the fiercely competitive SEC. With the pressure mounting, a key question looms over the program: How many wins does Hugh Freeze need to keep his job in year three?

In this article, we will break down Freeze’s tenure so far, the expectations he faces in his third season, and the realistic number of wins he must achieve to avoid the dreaded “hot seat” in 2025. We’ll also discuss how his performance will be evaluated within the broader context of Auburn’s long-term goals and SEC dynamics.

Hugh Freeze’s Auburn Tenure So Far

When Auburn hired Hugh Freeze, they were hoping to see a significant turnaround after the tumultuous end of Bryan Harsin’s brief stint as head coach. Harsin, who took over in 2021, was unable to get the Tigers to the levels of success expected by the Auburn fanbase and was ultimately dismissed after a disappointing 2022 campaign.

Freeze’s arrival brought a sense of optimism. Known for his ability to recruit talent and his offensive acumen, Freeze was seen as the kind of coach who could quickly turn Auburn into a more competitive force in the SEC West. His success at Ole Miss, where he turned the program into a perennial contender and helped develop standout quarterbacks like Chad Kelly and Bo Wallace, led many to believe that Freeze could replicate that success at Auburn. Additionally, his ability to recruit on a national level, especially in talent-rich states like Alabama and Georgia, was seen as a major strength.

However, the results in his first two seasons at Auburn have not matched those high expectations. In his first year (2023), Freeze’s Tigers finished with a 5-7 record, missing out on bowl eligibility. In 2024, the team showed modest improvement but still finished with a 6-6 record, once again failing to make a significant mark in the SEC. While there were some positive signs, particularly in individual player performances, Auburn was largely inconsistent throughout both seasons.

The major question now is how Freeze can elevate Auburn in 2025 and avoid the potential fallout from a third straight season of mediocrity.

The Pressure to Win in the SEC

One of the biggest challenges for Hugh Freeze at Auburn is the extremely high expectations of the program, particularly within the context of the SEC West. Auburn is not just competing within one of the toughest conferences in college football, but within a division that includes perennial powerhouses like Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M. The SEC is known for its depth, both in talent and competition, and it is not a forgiving environment for coaches who fail to meet expectations.

To make matters more challenging, Auburn’s program has had a rich history of success, including national championships in 1957 and 2010 and numerous SEC titles. The Tigers’ fanbase expects their program to be competitive year in and year out. As such, the pressure to win is immense. This is not a team that will be content with mediocrity for long.

For Freeze, this means that a third consecutive season of underperformance would not be easily tolerated. Auburn fans and boosters would likely begin to grow impatient with Freeze if he cannot show consistent improvement, especially if the team fails to make a bowl game for a third straight year.

How Many Wins Does Freeze Need in 2025?

Given the current trajectory of his program, it’s clear that Freeze needs to win more than just a few games in 2025. Auburn must show tangible improvement in order for Freeze to keep his job. But how many wins will it take for Freeze to avoid the hot seat?

8 Wins: The Baseline for Stability

A good starting point to assess Hugh Freeze’s performance in 2025 is the expectation of at least 8 wins. For Auburn to take a step forward in 2025, Freeze must deliver a competitive, winning record. The SEC West, as competitive as it is, is not immune to surprises, and Auburn will have opportunities to take advantage of teams that may be in transition or rebuilding.

An 8-win season would mark significant progress for the program. It would demonstrate that Freeze has not only gotten Auburn back on track but has also begun to establish a foundation for future success. This would likely include several signature wins, such as taking down a rival or knocking off a top-10 team.

The 8-win threshold is also a reasonable expectation considering Auburn’s talent level. While Freeze’s recruiting has been solid, he will need to prove that he can maximize the potential of his roster. His offensive schemes must start showing more consistency, especially in the quarterback play, where Auburn has lacked stability in recent seasons. If Freeze can manage to win 8 games in 2025, it would signal that he is capable of meeting the competitive demands of the SEC and building a competitive Auburn program.

9 Wins: A Strong Case for Retention

If Hugh Freeze can push Auburn to 9 wins in 2025, it would go a long way toward solidifying his position as the head coach moving forward. Nine wins would almost certainly mean a bowl berth and could very well push Auburn back into the upper tier of the SEC standings. If Freeze were to lead Auburn to 9 wins, including potentially an upset over an SEC powerhouse like Alabama or LSU, it would indicate that Freeze has built a more consistent, competitive team capable of achieving success against top-tier opponents.

Nine wins would also serve as a statement to Auburn fans and boosters that Freeze is the right man for the job, capable of leading Auburn back to its championship-contending ways. This would likely buy Freeze another year or two to continue building the program and possibly contend for an SEC title in the near future.

10 Wins or More: Long-Term Security

A 10-win season would almost certainly secure Hugh Freeze’s future as Auburn’s head coach. If Freeze could win 10 games, it would mean that he had not only led the team to a successful record but also helped Auburn become a legitimate contender within the SEC West. A 10-win season could mean that Auburn has beaten at least one top-5 opponent, likely at home, and shown that it can compete with the elite programs of college football.

With 10 wins, Freeze would have silenced many of his critics and proven that he is capable of building a sustainable winner in a challenging conference. It would provide a much-needed boost to his reputation, both within Auburn and nationally. A 10-win season would give Auburn’s administration the confidence to fully commit to Freeze as the long-term leader of the program.

Evaluating Auburn’s Schedule in 2025

For Freeze to reach these win totals, Auburn’s 2025 schedule will be crucial. The SEC’s regular schedule, coupled with out-of-conference games, provides Freeze with both opportunities and challenges.

• Non-Conference Games: Auburn’s non-conference schedule is often filled with matchups against lower-tier teams that offer the Tigers a chance to pad their win total. Freeze must take advantage of these games to build momentum and avoid any embarrassing losses.
• SEC Rivalries: Auburn’s rivalry games against teams like Alabama, LSU, and Georgia will be pivotal in determining the Tigers’ season. Winning even one or two of these rivalry matchups would be a huge boost to Freeze’s standing. The rivalry with Alabama, in particular, is one of the most significant in college football, and a win over the Crimson Tide could be a career-defining moment for Freeze.
• Tough SEC West: Auburn must navigate the gauntlet of SEC West opponents, including Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Mississippi State. The competition in the West is relentless, and Freeze will need to show that his team is capable of competing with these high-caliber programs.

The Importance of Recruiting and Development

It’s important to note that while the number of wins is critical, so too is Freeze’s ability to develop players and recruit top-tier talent. Auburn’s future success is heavily dependent on Freeze’s ability to improve his recruiting efforts, particularly at key positions like quarterback, offensive line, and defensive back. A strong 2025 season would give him the opportunity to build on his recruiting successes, ensuring that Auburn remains competitive for years to come.

 The Road Ahead for Hugh Freeze

As Hugh Freeze enters his third season at Auburn, the pressure is on. With the Tigers finishing 11-17 in his first two years, there’s no question that Freeze must show tangible improvement in 2025. A baseline of 8 wins is likely required to maintain his job, while 9 wins would strengthen his case for retention, and 10 or more wins would secure his long-term future at Auburn.

The next season will be critical not just for Freeze, but for the future of Auburn football. If he can meet the challenge head-on and begin to turn the program into a consistent SEC contender, Auburn fans will finally see the results they’ve been waiting for. But if the struggles continue, Freeze could find himself on the hot seat, with the pressure to deliver mounting each year.

In the cutthroat world of college football, particularly in the SEC, nothing is guaranteed. But for now, the ball is in Freeze’s court. The 2025 season is his chance to prove that he’s the right man to lead Auburn back to its place among the SEC elite.