JJ Redick’s analytics team validates a startling fan notion regarding rival teams, which is bad luck for the Lakers.
For decades, the NBA has been a league driven by storylines, rivalries, and, of course, statistics. As analytics have taken center stage in modern basketball discussions, former NBA sharpshooter and current analyst JJ Redick has been at the forefront of breaking down complex data to provide insightful takes on the game. Recently, Redick’s analytics team uncovered a startling trend regarding rival teams that could spell trouble for the Los Angeles Lakers—a finding that has left fans buzzing and analysts re-evaluating the Western Conference landscape.
The Analytical Revelation
According to Redick’s analytics team, rival teams in direct competition with the Lakers have shown a statistically significant pattern of outperforming their expected win totals when facing Los Angeles. The study, based on a large sample size spanning multiple seasons, suggests that teams tend to elevate their level of play when matched up against the Lakers—whether due to heightened motivation, strategic adjustments, or psychological factors tied to the prestige of facing one of the most storied franchises in NBA history.
What’s more, this trend appears to be particularly prominent among specific Western Conference opponents, namely the Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, and the Phoenix Suns. These teams, when playing against Los Angeles, have shown an increase in efficiency ratings, defensive intensity, and three-point shooting accuracy, all exceeding their season averages.
The implications of this discovery are significant, as it means that the Lakers may be facing an uphill battle even before stepping onto the court. While talent and coaching adjustments play major roles in wins and losses, if opposing teams consistently play above their typical level against Los Angeles, the Lakers will have to counteract not just the usual competitive challenges, but an added psychological disadvantage.
Why Teams Elevate Against the Lakers
The Lakers’ status as an NBA powerhouse—historically and in modern times—has made them a team that opponents circle on their calendars. However, the analytics reveal more than just a simple rivalry effect; they suggest a deeper phenomenon that combines history, psychology, and even tactical adjustments that teams deploy specifically against the Lakers.
1. The Psychological Factor
For many players, facing the Lakers, especially in marquee matchups, serves as an opportunity to showcase their talents on a national stage. With the Lakers consistently drawing high television ratings and playing in prime-time slots, rival teams know that these games offer maximum exposure. Players looking to make a statement—whether for contract considerations, All-Star selections, or simply personal pride—often treat these matchups as must-win contests.
2. LeBron James and Anthony Davis as Targets
LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers’ two biggest stars, naturally draw heightened defensive attention. Teams prepare extensively to neutralize their impact, often implementing defensive schemes that aren’t typically used in other matchups. Redick’s data suggests that teams tend to send more double-teams against LeBron and Davis than in games against other elite duos, forcing the Lakers to rely on role players who may not always rise to the occasion.
3. Defensive Adjustments and Shooting Efficiency
The analytics also point to a trend of opponents executing crisper defensive rotations and demonstrating better transition defense when playing the Lakers. This is particularly problematic for a Lakers squad that thrives in transition and on high-percentage looks in the paint. Opposing teams also seem to shoot at an unusually high clip from beyond the arc against the Lakers, which could be a combination of better shot selection, extra motivation, or even a weakness in Los Angeles’ perimeter defense that has been exploited repeatedly.
Case Studies: Teams That Have Benefited from the Lakers Effect
1. Denver Nuggets
The defending NBA champions, led by Nikola Jokić, have dominated the Lakers in recent matchups. The analytics show that Denver’s three-point shooting percentage increases by nearly 5% when facing the Lakers, and Jokić’s assist numbers jump significantly as well. The Nuggets seem to exploit the Lakers’ defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in pick-and-roll coverage and transition defense.
2. Golden State Warriors
Despite an up-and-down season, the Warriors have consistently performed at an elite level against the Lakers. Redick’s team found that Steph Curry and Klay Thompson tend to have some of their best shooting nights against Los Angeles, with Golden State’s overall ball movement metrics improving in these matchups. Whether due to their historic rivalry or the sheer tactical advantage they possess in perimeter shooting, the Warriors appear to have a built-in edge when facing the Lakers.
3. Phoenix Suns
With Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal leading their offense, the Suns have seen a notable uptick in offensive efficiency against the Lakers. Redick’s data highlights how Phoenix’s fast-paced offense particularly exploits the Lakers in transition, capitalizing on defensive lapses and forcing mismatches that lead to high-percentage shots.
What This Means for the Lakers Moving Forward
If JJ Redick’s analytics team is correct in their assessment, then the Lakers need to adjust their approach when facing rival teams who bring extra energy and precision to these matchups. This means making tactical changes, improving their defensive intensity, and developing counters for the heightened level of play they are consistently encountering.
1. Defensive Adjustments
One of the biggest takeaways from the analytics is the Lakers’ need to tighten their perimeter defense. If opponents are consistently shooting above their season averages from three-point range against Los Angeles, it signals a fundamental flaw in the team’s ability to close out shooters. The Lakers must implement more aggressive close-outs, better switch schemes, and more disciplined defensive rotations to limit wide-open attempts.
2. Supporting Cast Must Step Up
While LeBron James and Anthony Davis continue to be the focal points of the Lakers’ game plan, their supporting cast must step up against teams that overcompensate defensively against the stars. Players like D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and Rui Hachimura need to capitalize on open looks and become consistent secondary scorers to alleviate pressure on the main duo.
3. Playing with a Sense of Urgency
If opposing teams are treating games against the Lakers as high-stakes battles, then Los Angeles must match that level of urgency. Too often, the Lakers have fallen into patterns of slow starts or lapses in focus that allow their rivals to build momentum. By emphasizing early-game execution and sustaining energy throughout all four quarters, the Lakers can mitigate the advantage that their opponents seem to gain when facing them.
A New Reality for the Lakers?
JJ Redick’s analytics team has provided a fascinating and troubling insight into why the Lakers may be struggling against their biggest rivals. If these findings hold, the Lakers will need to not only address tactical flaws but also embrace the reality that teams are playing their best basketball when they face them.
The Lakers remain one of the most talented and experienced teams in the NBA, but overcoming this statistical disadvantage will require strategic adaptation and a mental shift in how they approach these key matchups. Whether they can rise to the challenge will determine their ability to compete at the highest level in an increasingly competitive Western Conference.
