ESPN’s Bill Connelly thinks the Oklahoma Sooners could be ready for a rise in 2025.
The Oklahoma Sooners, a program once considered the gold standard in college football, have experienced a rollercoaster ride in recent seasons. After the departure of Lincoln Riley to USC, Oklahoma found itself in a transitional phase under the leadership of Brent Venables, who took the reins in 2022. With the program struggling to regain its former dominance, many pundits and fans have questioned how soon the Sooners can return to national championship contention. However, ESPN’s Bill Connelly, known for his deep dive analytics and unique perspective on college football, believes that 2025 could be the year Oklahoma is ready to rise again.
Connelly’s optimism for the Sooners is grounded in the idea that, although they have faced adversity in the post-Riley era, the program has the foundational elements in place to make a significant leap. Here, we’ll break down why Connelly believes 2025 could be the turning point for Oklahoma and the factors that will play a role in the Sooners’ resurgence.
A Deep Dive Into the Numbers: Why 2025 is the Target Year
Bill Connelly, ESPN’s leading college football analytics guru, has long been known for his ability to analyze teams through statistical models that focus on efficiency, recruiting trends, and historical performance. When he speaks about Oklahoma’s rise, his analysis centers on the following key areas: recruiting, defensive improvements, player development, and the program’s overall trajectory under Brent Venables.
- Recruiting Excellence and the 2023 Class
Connelly is quick to point out that Oklahoma’s recruiting efforts under Venables have been among the best in the Big 12. Despite a rocky start to his tenure, Venables has shown a commitment to building a solid foundation through high-quality recruits. As of 2023, Oklahoma has secured top-tier players, especially on defense, which was Venables’ calling card during his time as the defensive coordinator at Clemson. With a focus on both five-star and four-star prospects, Oklahoma’s 2023 class has the potential to be one of the best the program has seen in recent years.
According to Connelly, the defensive talent coming to Norman is a critical aspect of Oklahoma’s resurgence. Venables has been tasked with fixing one of the biggest weaknesses of the Riley-era Sooners: defense. After years of subpar defensive performances, recruiting elite players who can make an immediate impact in that area will be key for turning things around.
Connelly notes that if the program continues to recruit at this level and can develop this talent effectively, 2025 could see the Sooners’ defense transform into a formidable unit. When combined with offensive talent that still remains from previous recruiting cycles, Venables will have the tools necessary to compete at the highest levels.
- Defensive Overhaul: Venables’ Calling Card
As one of the premier defensive minds in college football, Brent Venables’ ability to field a stout defense is perhaps the most important factor in Oklahoma’s potential return to prominence. Connelly believes that Oklahoma’s defense showed flashes of improvement during Venables’ first two years, but the results haven’t yet been as consistent as fans expected.
However, the key to Oklahoma’s 2025 resurgence lies in the defensive line, linebacker corps, and secondary. Venables, known for his aggressive schemes and relentless pursuit of the ball, will need to establish more depth and consistency across the defense. The program has brought in solid recruits and transfers to fill the gaps left by previous years’ struggles, and Connelly believes that by 2025, the defensive unit will be far more competitive on the national stage.
Venables is known for his ability to develop defensive players into elite contributors, and the high level of defensive recruits in the pipeline suggests that the Sooners will have the athletes to compete against the big dogs of the SEC once they officially join the conference.
- Player Development: A Crucial Year Ahead
One of the most important aspects of Connelly’s analysis is player development. While Oklahoma has consistently attracted top talent, the development of that talent has been hit or miss in recent years. Under Riley, the Sooners often relied on high-powered offenses to win games, while their defensive players seemed to regress or simply didn’t develop at the same rate as those at other elite programs.
Venables has already begun the difficult task of reshaping Oklahoma’s player development process, with an emphasis on building a tougher, more disciplined program. Connelly points to the fact that the defensive line and linebacker positions should see marked improvement over the next two years, particularly if players are allowed to mature and progress in Venables’ system.
The rise in player development in both offense and defense will be essential for the Sooners. In the competitive landscape of college football, where top-tier players need to maximize their potential to compete at the highest levels, Venables’ reputation for developing talent will be a significant asset moving forward.
- Offensive Potential: Building on What’s Left
While the defense remains the focal point of Venables’ rebuild, Connelly does not overlook Oklahoma’s offensive potential. Despite the loss of key players to the NFL and transfer portal, Oklahoma’s offense is still brimming with talent. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who transferred from UCF, showed promise during his first season with the Sooners and has the potential to elevate his play with another year under his belt.
Connelly also notes the importance of the running back position, where the Sooners have consistently produced elite athletes. The program has a solid offensive line that has the potential to open up running lanes for a dynamic backfield. If Gabriel and the offensive line continue to grow together, Oklahoma could possess one of the more balanced offenses in the Big 12 and possibly beyond.
While offensive production has been a strength for Oklahoma historically, the key for Venables is maintaining a balance between explosive offense and a defense that can stop opposing teams in crucial moments. If the offense takes the next step in 2024 and carries that momentum into 2025, Oklahoma could once again be viewed as a serious contender.
The Schedule and External Factors: A Roadmap to 2025
Beyond the internal improvements in recruiting, player development, and defensive performance, the external factors play an equally important role in Oklahoma’s 2025 rise. Connelly’s analysis takes into account Oklahoma’s future schedule, which will include its much-anticipated move to the SEC. This will undoubtedly present new challenges, but it could also provide opportunities for Venables to prove that his system can succeed in one of the toughest conferences in college football.
Connelly points out that Oklahoma’s future in the SEC could serve as a springboard for the program to face better competition and thus improve its chances of building depth and confidence in critical situations. Though the move to the SEC may seem daunting, it could serve as the ultimate proving ground for the Sooners to showcase their growth and competitive spirit. If Oklahoma can hold its own during its transition into the SEC, it will be a testament to Venables’ ability to adapt and lead a program into the new era of college football.
The Confidence in Venables: Belief in Long-Term Success
Despite the challenges faced during his first two seasons, Connelly remains confident that Venables is the right coach to lead Oklahoma back to elite status. His defensive prowess, ability to recruit at an elite level, and focus on player development all position him as a coach who can return Oklahoma to its rightful place among college football’s elite.
While 2023 and 2024 may not fully meet the high expectations set for Oklahoma, 2025 presents the perfect window for the Sooners to rise once again. With a stronger defense, an offense that can carry the load, and a roster of recruits ready to step into key roles, the 2025 season could be the year Oklahoma makes its triumphant return to national championship contention.
Connelly’s belief that 2025 could be Oklahoma’s year to rise is not based merely on hope; it’s grounded in a careful evaluation of the program’s trajectory, its recruiting efforts, and the internal improvements that Venables has set in motion. The Sooners are poised for a turnaround, and if the pieces fall into place, they could once again find themselves atop the college football landscape, ready to contend for championships.
In summary, while 2025 might seem like a long way off, the foundation for Oklahoma’s success is being laid in the present. With Brent Venables at the helm and the program’s commitment to growth, the future is indeed bright for the Sooners. The climb back to prominence may take time, but the journey is well on its way. The rise of the Oklahoma Sooners in 2025 is a story that fans are eager to see unfold.
