Some Duke fans believe Cooper Flagg could miss out on up to $400 million if he doesn’t declare for the NBA draft. Do you think he should declare?
Cooper Flagg is widely regarded as one of the most highly anticipated basketball prospects in recent memory. At just 17 years old, he’s already drawn comparisons to some of the NBA’s future superstars, and his dominant high school career has led many to believe he is ready for the professional ranks. However, despite the attention and excitement surrounding Flagg’s potential, one of the most pressing questions that has emerged for the Duke-bound prospect is whether he should declare for the NBA Draft or return for another season in college. Some Duke fans believe that if Flagg decides to return for another year in college, he could miss out on as much as $400 million in future earnings due to the financial incentives of entering the NBA Draft early. This debate involves many moving pieces: potential draft positioning, the financial realities of entering the NBA, and the long-term development of Flagg’s skills, as well as his mental and physical readiness for the rigors of professional basketball.
Let’s examine the factors at play in Flagg’s decision and explore whether he should declare for the NBA Draft or take another year to develop at Duke University.
The Stakes: What Does $400 Million Really Mean?
The claim that Cooper Flagg could miss out on up to $400 million is rooted in the reality that NBA contracts—particularly for high draft picks—can be incredibly lucrative, and the earlier a player enters the league, the earlier they start earning at that elite level. The NBA, like many other professional leagues, operates with a salary scale for rookies based on their draft position. While the exact figures can vary depending on the length of the contract, endorsement deals, and the player’s ability to perform immediately, top draft picks can sign contracts worth tens of millions of dollars, even if they aren’t immediately signing max contracts.
A player like Flagg—who is projected to be one of the top picks in the upcoming NBA Draft—could earn a significant amount of money right off the bat. The first overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft is expected to sign a rookie contract worth upwards of $10 million in the first year alone, with total compensation over the course of a four-year deal easily reaching $40-50 million. For someone as highly regarded as Flagg, endorsements could push this total much higher, with top-level rookie contracts often accompanied by lucrative deals with major brands like Nike, Adidas, or Under Armour. In fact, some estimates suggest that the total value of a top pick’s rookie contract, including endorsements, could surpass $100 million over the course of a few years.
From a purely financial perspective, declaring for the NBA Draft and securing a high pick could be a chance for Flagg to set himself up for generational wealth. If he waits another year, however, he risks potentially being passed over by teams that may be looking to draft other players, or even the possibility that the team he’s projected to go to might already have its future roster set.
But there’s more to this decision than just the numbers on a contract.
The Case for Declaring for the NBA Draft: Financial and Career Motivation
The most obvious case for Flagg declaring for the NBA Draft revolves around the financial opportunities that await him. As mentioned earlier, entering the NBA Draft early offers the chance to start earning millions right away. Flagg, who is one of the most hyped prospects in the country, will likely be a top pick, which means he’s almost guaranteed a lucrative contract and potentially a host of endorsement deals to supplement his income. In a world where NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) deals have completely changed the landscape of college sports, athletes like Flagg are positioned to earn not just from their team’s success but also from their personal brand. By entering the NBA Draft, Flagg could accelerate the trajectory of his career and start reaping the financial rewards much earlier than if he stayed in college.
There’s also the matter of playing against the best competition. The NBA is a completely different level of basketball, and the sooner a player gets their feet wet in the professional ranks, the quicker they can adjust and improve. Flagg’s incredible potential already suggests he is more than capable of making an immediate impact in the league, and there’s a valid argument that getting into the NBA sooner rather than later could allow him to develop faster than if he were to stay in college another year.
Furthermore, the concept of “generational wealth” is extremely appealing for many young athletes. Entering the NBA Draft guarantees financial stability for both Flagg and his family. Given the limited number of years that most athletes have in their playing careers, the financial rewards of an early entry are undeniably tempting. If Flagg were to declare for the draft and secure a multi-million dollar contract, he would be set for life and able to focus solely on maximizing his potential in the NBA.
The Case for Returning to College: Development and Long-Term Success
On the flip side, returning to college for another season presents its own advantages—especially when we consider Flagg’s long-term development as a player and the inherent risks of entering the NBA too early. Despite his incredible skills and potential, Flagg is still just a teenager, and there’s no denying that professional basketball can be a harsh and unforgiving environment for young players. NBA teams are filled with veterans who have been in the league for years and who bring a wealth of experience and physical maturity that is difficult for even the most talented young prospects to match immediately.
Returning to Duke for another season could allow Flagg to further hone his game in a familiar environment, under the tutelage of world-class coaches and alongside other elite-level prospects. His physical development, especially as it pertains to adding muscle, improving his conditioning, and fine-tuning his shooting mechanics, could all be enhanced with another year of focused development. Duke’s coaching staff, along with the resources available to Flagg as a Blue Devil, would be invaluable in preparing him for the NBA’s demands, whether it be in terms of physicality, basketball IQ, or leadership skills.
Moreover, another year in college could allow Flagg to develop mentally and emotionally. The jump from high school to the NBA is often underestimated in terms of the pressure it places on players. While some players thrive under such pressure, others struggle with the transition. Flagg would benefit from the opportunity to continue growing in a less chaotic, college-focused environment before stepping into the intense spotlight of the NBA. Additionally, playing for a program like Duke, which consistently competes at the highest level, could provide Flagg with invaluable experience in high-pressure situations—something that would serve him well in the NBA.
From a career perspective, staying another year in college could help Flagg solidify his draft stock. While he’s currently projected to be a high lottery pick, there are always uncertainties in the draft process, and teams may shift their priorities depending on how the draft class evolves over the next year. By returning for another season, Flagg has the opportunity to further solidify his reputation as one of the top players in college basketball, potentially raising his stock even higher by showing improvement in key areas such as his shot creation, playmaking, or defensive prowess.
Moreover, by playing another season, Flagg might avoid the “bust” label that can sometimes be unfairly placed on young players who enter the NBA too early. A year in college could help him become more well-rounded as a player and more prepared for the intense pressure that comes with playing in the NBA.
Ultimately, the decision of whether Cooper Flagg should declare for the NBA Draft is a deeply personal one that hinges on a variety of factors, not just the potential for a massive payday. While the financial reward of entering the NBA early is certainly compelling, Flagg’s long-term career success should be considered as well. Should he declare for the draft, he will face the pressures of living up to lofty expectations and potentially struggling with the adjustment to the NBA’s speed, intensity, and competition. On the other hand, returning to Duke for another year could provide him with the opportunity to develop further, both physically and mentally, which may set him up for a more successful and sustainable NBA career in the future.
At the end of the day, this decision isn’t just about money; it’s about what will best position Flagg for success in the long run. The opportunity to build his game in a college environment, compete for championships, and refine his skills may be the wisest course of action for his long-term development. Given that he is projected to be a future NBA star no matter when he enters the league, the real question isn’t about his immediate earnings, but about his potential for sustained success at the highest levels of basketball.
Cooper Flagg has the world at his feet, and regardless of whether he declares for the NBA Draft or returns for another season at Duke, his future looks incredibly bright.
