Cooper Flagg’s $50 million decision to remain with Duke Basketball is “not a smart move.”

In recent years, the world of college basketball has witnessed the emergence of players who transcend the typical college experience, becoming household names even before they don the professional jerseys of the NBA. One such player is Cooper Flagg, a prodigious talent who has quickly become one of the most coveted prospects in the nation. Flagg’s exceptional combination of size, skill, and basketball IQ has made him an undeniable star at Duke University. However, despite his already high profile and the lucrative future awaiting him in professional basketball, there is growing concern about the decision Flagg has reportedly made to remain at Duke for another season.

According to reports, Flagg has chosen to bypass the allure of the NBA and instead opt to stay at Duke, where he will continue to hone his skills under the tutelage of head coach Jon Scheyer. While this may seem like a sensible decision to some, many analysts and basketball experts argue that Flagg’s $50 million decision could ultimately be a mistake, not only for his immediate financial future but also for his long-term development as a player. In this article, we’ll delve into the reasons why staying at Duke for another year may not be the smartest move for Cooper Flagg, considering both the broader context of his career trajectory and the current landscape of college and professional basketball.

The $50 Million Question: Why is Cooper Flagg’s Decision Under Scrutiny?

At first glance, the decision to stay at Duke might seem like a rational choice. Flagg has been a standout for the Blue Devils, making an immediate impact on the college basketball scene. His impressive performances, particularly in high-profile games, have helped elevate his status as a top-tier NBA prospect. As a potential top 3 pick in the NBA Draft, Flagg’s decision to stay in college may be motivated by a desire for more exposure, a desire to develop his game further, or even the chance to capture a national title with a team that looks poised for a deep tournament run.

However, despite these factors, there are significant financial and career-related risks associated with remaining in college for an additional season. The most obvious consideration is the $50 million potential he stands to lose by postponing his entry into the NBA. The NBA operates on a system where players are paid handsomely, with rookie contracts for top draft picks often worth millions of dollars. For Flagg, the longer he stays in college, the more he risks being injured or seeing his stock drop due to unforeseen circumstances.

The Financial Opportunity: NBA Rookie Contracts and the Financial Reality

One of the primary reasons why staying in college may not be the best move for Flagg is the substantial financial opportunity that the NBA offers. Players selected in the first few picks of the NBA Draft often receive lucrative contracts, with guaranteed money that can set them up financially for life. The NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) outlines the salary structure for rookies, with players drafted in the top 3 guaranteed a substantial sum over the course of their first few years in the league.

If Flagg were to declare for the NBA Draft and get selected in the top 3—a highly probable outcome given his talent—he could be looking at a rookie contract worth upwards of $50 million over the first few years of his career. This would provide him with an immediate financial boost that staying in college simply cannot match.

While the allure of college basketball’s culture and camaraderie is undeniable, the financial realities of the professional world are even more pressing. $50 million is a life-changing amount of money that Flagg would likely receive through the NBA’s salary cap structure. Furthermore, NBA rookies receive substantial signing bonuses and endorsement opportunities, providing additional income streams that would help him secure a more lucrative future than remaining in college would offer.

The Risk of Injury: A Constant Threat in College Basketball

Injuries are an unfortunate reality of any sport, and college basketball is no exception. Flagg has demonstrated a remarkable level of athleticism and skill, but the longer he plays in a high-intensity, physically demanding environment like college basketball, the greater the risk of injury. Every game played and every practice session brings with it the possibility of sustaining a major injury that could derail his career and financial future.

In the past, college basketball players who chose to stay for multiple seasons have experienced injuries that ultimately harmed their draft stock. Most notably, players like Shabazz Muhammad, Jabari Parker, and Zion Williamson—all of whom were highly regarded as college players—faced injury setbacks that impacted their NBA careers and earnings potential. While injury is always a risk, the more time a player spends in college, the greater the chance that something could happen that affects their professional prospects.

Flagg’s case is particularly concerning because, as a top-tier prospect, his injury risk is exacerbated by the attention that will be placed on him. NBA teams will be watching closely and evaluating not only his performance on the court but also his durability and long-term potential. One significant injury, whether it occurs during a regular-season game or in the NCAA tournament, could cause Flagg’s stock to drop. If he were to declare for the NBA after his freshman year, he would already be established as one of the top picks in the draft, allowing him to bypass this risk entirely.

The Evolution of the NBA Draft: Is College Experience Still Beneficial?

In the past, the college experience was viewed as an essential stepping stone to the NBA. Players spent multiple seasons in college, developing their skills and maturing both physically and mentally before making the leap to the pros. However, the landscape of the NBA Draft has changed in recent years. With the rise of the G-League and Overseas basketball leagues, the traditional college route is no longer the only viable path to professional basketball.

Many recent NBA stars have chosen to forgo college basketball entirely in favor of other routes, including LaMelo Ball and Jalen Green, who both spent time playing in international leagues or the G-League before being drafted. The rise of these alternatives has led many to question the necessity of playing multiple seasons in college. For top-tier prospects like Flagg, the developmental benefits of staying in college for another year may not outweigh the risks of missing out on a significant financial opportunity.

Furthermore, the NBA has evolved into a league where players often make an immediate impact in their rookie seasons. The days of players needing multiple seasons to adjust to the NBA’s level of competition are over. With advancements in training, nutrition, and player development, NBA teams are better equipped than ever to help young players succeed right away. Given Flagg’s talent, it is highly likely that he would be able to step into an NBA lineup and contribute immediately, making his decision to stay in college even more perplexing.

The Pressure to Win at Duke: Does it Help or Hurt?

Duke University is known for its rich basketball tradition, and expectations are always high for its players. As the head coach of Duke, Jon Scheyer is tasked with leading a team that has consistently been among the best in the nation. However, with that success comes a unique kind of pressure that could ultimately harm a player’s development. Cooper Flagg, as the star player, will undoubtedly be under intense scrutiny both on and off the court.

At Duke, the stakes are high every season. The expectation of winning a national championship is always present, and anything less is considered a disappointment. For a player like Flagg, who already has NBA aspirations, this kind of pressure can be both motivating and detrimental. Flagg’s development as a player will likely be scrutinized more closely than his peers, and he will be expected to lead Duke to victory in every game.

The demands of playing at a program like Duke can be overwhelming, and while the experience can provide valuable exposure and development opportunities, it can also become a burden. This intense spotlight could ultimately hinder Flagg’s growth as a player, especially when compared to the more relaxed environment of professional basketball, where the pressure to perform is still immense but far less centered around college-level expectations.

The Case for Going Pro: The Right Move for Cooper Flagg

Given the financial, developmental, and risk factors at play, it appears that declaring for the NBA Draft is the best decision for Cooper Flagg. The $50 million he stands to earn as a top-three pick would set him up for financial success immediately, while his development could continue with NBA-level coaching and competition. While college basketball offers a valuable platform, it no longer holds the same developmental advantages it once did, especially for elite talents like Flagg.

The NBA offers a faster, more lucrative path to success, and Flagg’s decision to stay at Duke could be a missed opportunity. The risks associated with staying in college—such as injury or a drop in stock—are too great when weighed against the potential rewards of entering the NBA immediately.