Texas basketball is on the verge of the NCAA Tournament bubble, according to March Madness bracketology.

As March approaches and the NCAA Tournament becomes a reality for most of college basketball, the Texas Longhorns find themselves teetering on the brink of the NCAA Tournament bubble. While Texas has consistently been a respected program in college basketball, their season has been a rollercoaster, filled with highs and lows that have led to the team being on the bubble in the latest March Madness bracketology projections. For fans, coaches, and analysts, this precarious position has left many wondering whether the Longhorns will make the tournament field or whether they will have to rely on selection committee discussions and potential conference tournament success to earn an at-large bid.

This article will dive into Texas basketball’s current position within the NCAA Tournament bubble, examine key factors affecting their chances of making the tournament, and analyze the broader picture of their season so far. Additionally, we will look at how the Longhorns can improve their standing in the coming weeks, how their roster has performed, and what challenges they still face before the March Madness selection process officially begins.

Texas Basketball’s Bubble Position: The Bracketology Snapshot

In the world of college basketball, bracketology is an ever-evolving process that tracks the NCAA Tournament field and predicts which teams are likely to earn a spot. Currently, Texas is on the bubble—meaning they are right on the edge of qualifying for the tournament and will need to prove themselves in the coming weeks to avoid being left out of the bracket.

As of the latest bracketology projections, Texas is consistently listed as a bubble team—in the mix for an at-large bid, but still at risk of being excluded. This is not a new position for the Longhorns, as they’ve had seasons where they narrowly missed the cut or were just barely included in the tournament field. However, the 2024 season feels particularly intense given the uncertainty surrounding their final stretch of games.

Texas currently sits in the middle of the Big 12 standings, which is widely regarded as one of the toughest conferences in college basketball. Their overall record has been inconsistent, with some impressive wins but also head-scratching losses. This has left the selection committee and bracketologists debating whether the Longhorns’ resume is strong enough to earn a bid.

Key Metrics: RPI, Net Rankings, and Strength of Schedule

In determining whether a team deserves an at-large bid, the NCAA selection committee places a significant emphasis on key metrics such as RPI (Ratings Percentage Index), the Net Rankings, and the strength of schedule. These numbers often serve as the deciding factors for borderline teams like Texas, who are fighting to prove they deserve a place in the tournament.

1. RPI and Net Rankings: Texas has been hovering around the 40-50 range in both the RPI and Net Rankings—solid numbers for a team on the bubble, but far from a guarantee of an NCAA Tournament spot. A strong showing in these rankings usually correlates with a team’s chances of making the field, but it’s not the sole determinant.
2. Strength of Schedule: One of the Longhorns’ strengths this season has been their non-conference schedule, which included some tough matchups against top-tier programs. The Big 12 itself is a gauntlet, with teams like Kansas, Baylor, and Texas Tech offering formidable competition. Texas has earned respect for competing in this competitive environment, but the quality of wins remains the central question.
3. Quad 1 and Quad 2 Wins: Another crucial aspect for bubble teams is the number of Quad 1 wins they’ve secured. Quad 1 victories are those earned against ranked teams or high-caliber opponents on the road. Texas has secured several Quad 1 wins, but they’ll need to continue building this resume as they close out the season. The selection committee often prioritizes teams with strong records in these high-quality matchups, as they reflect the ability to perform in difficult circumstances.

Texas’ Ups and Downs: What’s Holding Them Back?

While the Longhorns are on the bubble, their journey to this point has been anything but predictable. Texas has had both flashes of brilliance and frustrating losses that have prevented them from solidifying a more secure spot in the field. Understanding the key moments of their season provides insight into what they need to improve in the coming weeks.

The Highs: Impressive Wins and Big-Time Performances

Texas has delivered some standout performances, showcasing their potential and reminding everyone why they are considered one of the top programs in the nation. Some of these moments include:

• Wins Over Top Teams: The Longhorns have notched several impressive wins over top-ranked teams, including a road win against Kansas, which immediately raised their stock in bracketology projections. A victory like this is crucial, as it demonstrates the ability to perform in high-pressure situations and gives the team a strong victory to point to in their tournament resume.
• Key Player Contributions: The performances of Marcus Carr, the team’s standout guard, and Timmy Allen, a versatile forward, have been vital to Texas’ success this season. Carr, in particular, has been the team’s offensive leader and has delivered in clutch moments, while Allen has been a reliable scorer and rebounder. These two veterans give the Longhorns a strong core to rely on.
• Defensive Resilience: Under head coach Chris Beard, Texas has shown a commitment to defense, with their ability to lock down opposing teams a key factor in some of their victories. The team’s defensive schemes have often neutralized high-scoring offenses, which has been a huge asset in a conference filled with talented players.

The Lows: Costly Losses and Inconsistent Play

While the high points have been encouraging, there have been significant struggles that have kept Texas on the bubble and prevented them from securing an easier path to the NCAA Tournament.

• Inconsistent Play: One of the biggest issues for Texas this season has been its inconsistency. The team has gone through stretches where they’ve looked like one of the top programs in the country, only to follow it up with frustrating losses to lower-ranked opponents. This inconsistency is a hallmark of bubble teams, and the Longhorns will need to find a way to develop more stability as the season comes to a close.
• Losses to Lower-Ranked Teams: Texas has dropped some crucial games against lower-ranked opponents, which has hurt their Net Rankings and overall tournament chances. These losses can be particularly damaging because they don’t carry the weight of a win over a top team, and in bracketology, the committee looks closely at a team’s ability to beat teams they should beat. Falling to these teams raises red flags for a team on the bubble.
• Turnover Issues: Another struggle for Texas has been their tendency to turn the ball over in key moments, leading to unforced errors that derail their momentum. In a tightly contested Big 12 conference, mistakes like these can be fatal, especially when every win is critical to securing an at-large bid.

Looking Ahead: What Needs to Happen for Texas to Make the NCAA Tournament?

With only a handful of games remaining in the regular season and the Big 12 Tournament on the horizon, Texas still has the opportunity to secure their place in the NCAA Tournament. However, their margin for error is slim, and they will need to focus on a few key areas to improve their chances.

Finish Strong in Big 12 Play

The Big 12 conference has been one of the toughest in college basketball this season, and finishing strong in conference play is essential for Texas. With a tough schedule ahead, the Longhorns will need to close out the regular season with wins over teams like Baylor, Texas Tech, and others near the top of the standings. Securing a few more Quad 1 victories will help them greatly, as these games have the most weight when it comes to resume-building.

Avoiding Bad Losses

Equally important for Texas is avoiding any more bad losses to lower-ranked teams. Texas’ NCAA Tournament hopes are already in a delicate position, and a loss to a bottom-tier Big 12 team could be the final blow to their chances of making the field. Maintaining focus and discipline in every game is critical.

Rely on Veteran Leadership

With players like Marcus Carr, Timmy Allen, and Christian Bishop leading the way, the Longhorns have the experience and talent needed to succeed in the postseason. In high-pressure moments, relying on their leadership will be key to securing victories and making a push for the NCAA Tournament.

Perform Well in the Big 12 Tournament

The Big 12 Tournament will likely serve as a last chance for Texas to secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament. A strong showing in the conference tournament, perhaps by making it to the finals or securing a few wins over high-ranked teams, could be the boost the Longhorns need to solidify their place in the tournament field.

 The Road Ahead for Texas Basketball

As the season enters its final stretch, the Texas Longhorns find themselves on the NCAA Tournament bubble, with everything still to play for. They have shown flashes of brilliance, but inconsistency has kept them on the edge of tournament contention. The good news is that the **Big

12 Tournament** and a few crucial games remain, giving Texas the opportunity to prove they belong in March Madness.

For Texas to make the tournament, they must build on their strengths, avoid costly losses, and finish strong in the regular season and conference tournament. With a talented roster and experienced leadership, they have the potential to make a run—but it will take focus, discipline, and execution in the final weeks to ensure their spot in the 2024 NCAA Tournament field.