Forecasts for March Madness: Will the women from Texas, TSU, and Baylor secure their spots?

The NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament—better known as March Madness—is one of the most exciting and unpredictable sporting events of the year. Teams from all over the country battle through conference play to secure a spot in the 64-team tournament, with the ultimate goal of winning the national championship. As we approach the 2025 edition of March Madness, the attention of fans and analysts is starting to turn toward which teams are likely to make the cut. Three programs that have been central to the conversation are Texas, Texas Southern University (TSU), and Baylor. Each team brings its unique strengths, and their paths to securing a spot in the tournament are taking shape.

Will these women’s teams from Texas achieve the success necessary to make the tournament? In this forecast, we will break down each team’s current standing, challenges, and opportunities as they approach the final stretch of the season.

1. Texas Longhorns: A National Contender or a Bubble Team?

The University of Texas Longhorns women’s basketball team, a program with a long history of success, is poised to make another significant run in the NCAA Tournament. The Longhorns have been a staple in women’s college basketball, regularly competing for top spots in the Big 12 Conference and earning high seeds in the NCAA Tournament. As of February 2025, Texas is firmly in the tournament conversation, but the question remains: will they be able to secure one of the coveted top-4 seeds in the tournament?

Current Position

Heading into the final month of the season, the Longhorns are ranked among the Top 15 nationally, sitting in the upper tier of the Big 12 standings. They have had some marquee wins, including victories over top-ranked teams such as UConn and Baylor, as well as a strong showing in their conference. However, Texas has also experienced some tough losses to other ranked teams, which have left some question marks around their overall consistency.

Their resume features solid victories, but there are still areas where they need to improve in order to secure a high seed come selection day. One such area is performance in close games, as Texas has struggled to finish out tight matchups, which is especially concerning as tournament games often come down to the final few possessions.

Key Players and Strengths

Rory Austin, the team’s star point guard, has been central to Texas’ success. Her ability to distribute the ball, score when needed, and defend at an elite level makes her one of the best players in the country. Austin has had several double-digit assist games and is considered one of the top floor generals in the nation.

Alongside her, forward Tasha Waller provides crucial rebounding and scoring in the paint. Waller’s versatility gives Texas the ability to mix up their offensive schemes, balancing inside play with outside shooting. Derricka Hamilton, a sharp-shooting guard, has been reliable from beyond the arc, often providing the team with much-needed momentum.

One of Texas’ greatest strengths lies in their defensive prowess. They’ve consistently ranked in the top five for team defense in the NCAA, holding opponents to low shooting percentages and dominating on the glass. If Texas can continue to lock down opponents and find more offensive consistency, they will be a tough out in March Madness.

Challenges Ahead

While Texas has significant talent and a strong résumé, there are still hurdles to overcome. Their struggles in close games could come back to haunt them, especially if they are placed in a tight regional where every possession matters. Additionally, the Big 12 Conference remains competitive, with teams like Kansas and Iowa State pushing Texas to perform at their best every night.

If Texas can capitalize on their remaining games, including key matchups against conference rivals, and secure a top finish in the Big 12 Tournament, they will most likely be solidified as a high seed. If they falter down the stretch, they may find themselves fighting for a spot in the Top 8 and could be in danger of slipping to a lower seed.

2. Texas Southern University (TSU): The Underdog with an Outside Shot

Texas Southern University (TSU) is a program that often flies under the radar in the conversation surrounding March Madness, but this season, they’ve made a strong case for consideration. Historically, TSU has had its fair share of postseason appearances, but securing an automatic bid or being considered for an at-large bid in 2025 will require an excellent finish to the regular season and a standout performance in the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) tournament.

Current Position

As of February 2025, TSU is competing at a high level in the SWAC, with a respectable record and a growing list of signature wins. They have consistently held their own in conference play, although they haven’t faced the same caliber of competition as teams from major conferences. However, the SWAC tournament often produces surprises, and TSU has the potential to be one of those surprises in 2025.

A SWAC tournament championship would secure TSU an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, and as an underdog, they could make for a dangerous team in the Big Dance. The team’s solid performances, both offensively and defensively, have positioned them as one of the top teams in their conference, but the key question remains whether they have the depth and experience to compete against higher-seeded opponents in the NCAA Tournament.

Key Players and Strengths

One of TSU’s most dangerous players is Kayla Richards, a junior forward who has been dominant on both ends of the court. Richards has the ability to stretch the floor with her shooting and also commands attention in the post, giving TSU a diverse offensive weapon. Mia Robertson, a guard who thrives in transition and plays with relentless energy, is another crucial piece to their puzzle.

Defensively, TSU has shown the ability to lock down opponents and create turnovers, often leading to fast-break opportunities. Their aggressive defense has kept them in many games, especially against stronger opponents. TSU’s ability to create chaos on defense and capitalize on transition opportunities will be critical for them as they make a push toward the NCAA Tournament.

Challenges Ahead

TSU’s biggest hurdle is competing against the top-tier teams from Power 5 conferences, where the competition is often more difficult. To truly make a case for inclusion in March Madness, TSU must not only win their conference but also prove that they can compete against high-level competition in non-conference games and potentially upset a few of their higher-ranked rivals in the SWAC Tournament.

Additionally, TSU has had issues with depth, and maintaining consistency throughout an entire tournament could be challenging for the team. They will need standout performances from their core players and contributions from others to make a deep run in March.

3. Baylor Bears: Championship Pedigree but Questions to Answer

Baylor, one of the most prestigious programs in women’s college basketball, enters the 2025 season with championship aspirations. Under the guidance of head coach Kim Mulkey, Baylor has consistently been a powerhouse, with numerous national titles and a consistent presence at the top of the Big 12 standings. The Bears are considered by many to be among the favorites to make a deep run in March Madness, but as we approach tournament time, Baylor faces some significant questions that could affect their overall performance.

Current Position

As of February 2025, Baylor is ranked inside the Top 10, with a record that includes several quality wins but also a few notable losses. The Bears have been hit with some injuries this season, which have disrupted their rhythm and forced them to adjust their lineup. Despite this, Baylor has remained competitive and poised to secure a high seed in the NCAA Tournament.

With the leadership of Naomi Oyelola, a standout center, and the scoring ability of Janae Edwards, Baylor has the talent to compete for a championship. However, their early-season losses and inconsistent play at times have raised questions about their ability to compete against elite teams, particularly when those teams bring a high level of defensive intensity and balance.

Key Players and Strengths

Baylor’s greatest strength lies in its elite frontcourt, with Oyelola anchoring the team’s defense and providing a dominant scoring presence. Janae Edwards and Sarah Pohl have provided offensive firepower, with Edwards contributing significantly as a scoring guard and Pohl as a sharpshooter from the perimeter.

Defensively, Baylor remains one of the most intimidating teams in the country, able to stifle opponents and lock down shooters. They have had success in controlling the tempo of games, using their size and depth to their advantage. If Baylor can regain their full strength and health, they will be a formidable team in the tournament.

Challenges Ahead

Baylor’s challenge will be managing their depth and health over the remaining weeks. Injuries to key players have hampered their performance at times, and to make a deep run in March Madness, they need to be fully healthy. Their offensive consistency will also be an area to watch. If Baylor can execute at a high level on offense, they will be a tough opponent for anyone.

Will Texas, TSU, and Baylor Make the Cut?

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, Texas, Texas Southern University (TSU)

, and Baylor all have the talent and potential to make their way into March Madness. For Texas, a top seed seems likely if they can navigate the remainder of their regular season and Big 12 Tournament. TSU, as an underdog, faces the daunting task of securing an automatic bid from the SWAC Tournament, while Baylor will need to stay healthy and consistent to prove they belong among the elite teams in the nation.

In the end, it’s clear that each team has its own unique challenges and strengths, but the potential to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament is certainly within reach for all three programs. Fans of Texas, TSU, and Baylor will be on the edge of their seats in anticipation as the madness of March approaches.