‘Rocky’ Start for Texas Longhorns 2025 Season Prediction by Paul Finebaum

The Texas Longhorns football program, which has been through its fair share of ups and downs in recent years, has begun to show signs of resurgence under head coach Steve Sarkisian. With the influx of elite recruits, most notably the commitment of highly coveted quarterback Arch Manning for the class of 2025, Texas appears to be in position to make a serious push for a return to prominence in college football. However, not everyone is ready to crown the Longhorns as the next powerhouse in the sport. Paul Finebaum, ESPN’s renowned college football analyst, recently weighed in on the 2025 Texas Longhorns season and offered a rather sobering prediction: a rocky start for the Longhorns as they prepare to take on the challenges of the upcoming season.

Finebaum’s prediction raises several important questions: Is Texas truly ready to compete at the highest level in 2025, or are there still too many obstacles to overcome? How will the pressures of being in the SEC affect the team’s trajectory? What factors are likely to contribute to the rocky start that Finebaum foresees? In this article, we will analyze the components of Finebaum’s prediction and break down why Texas could face a tough road ahead in 2025, despite the excitement surrounding the program.

The Expectations and Realities of Texas Football in 2025

The Texas Longhorns are entering the 2025 season with a great deal of anticipation. The commitment of Arch Manning, widely regarded as one of the best quarterback prospects in recent years, has the potential to turn the Longhorns into national championship contenders. Additionally, Steve Sarkisian’s offensive scheme, which has already begun to show promise in his early years as head coach, appears to be evolving into something more potent with each passing season. However, the question remains: are the Longhorns truly ready for the immense challenges that lie ahead, particularly when they face the top-tier competition they’ll encounter in the SEC?

Finebaum’s prediction of a rocky start likely stems from the combination of factors that could hinder the team’s performance early on. Texas has not been consistently elite in recent years, and while they have certainly taken steps in the right direction under Sarkisian’s leadership, a program that has struggled for over a decade is unlikely to suddenly emerge as a juggernaut overnight. Additionally, Arch Manning, despite being a generational talent, will be a freshman in 2025 and will inevitably face growing pains as he adjusts to the rigors of college football.

Finebaum’s analysis of Texas’ 2025 season highlights a critical reality: while the excitement surrounding the program is palpable, the Longhorns are still a team in transition. A rocky start, in his view, could be expected as the team faces the challenges of integrating new talent, overcoming existing weaknesses, and navigating the gauntlet that is SEC football.

Arch Manning’s Transition to College Football

The most obvious reason why Finebaum is predicting a rocky start for Texas is the introduction of Arch Manning at quarterback. While Manning is undoubtedly one of the most highly anticipated recruits in recent memory, it’s important to remember that college football is a different animal from high school football, even for a player as talented as Manning. The pressure on Manning to perform right away will be immense, especially given his family’s legacy and the lofty expectations that have followed him throughout his recruiting process.

Manning’s transition to college will be the focal point of Texas’ 2025 season. While he has an outstanding pedigree, having come from a football family that includes Peyton and Eli Manning, and Archie Manning, he will be stepping into a Texas Longhorns program that has not been able to capitalize on its talent in recent years. The SEC will provide a level of competition that Manning has not yet faced, and the adjustment from high school to college football is often difficult even for the most elite quarterbacks.

Some key questions surrounding Manning’s development are whether he can handle the physicality and speed of the college game, especially against top-tier SEC defenses. It’s one thing to dominate in high school, but quite another to succeed in one of the most competitive and demanding conferences in the country. Manning will have to adjust to faster defensive schemes, new offensive line dynamics, and an increased level of pressure on every throw he makes. These challenges could lead to mistakes early on in the season, resulting in a rocky start to 2025.

Moreover, the Longhorns will be relying heavily on Manning to lead their offense. As a freshman, it is likely that Manning will face ups and downs, and Texas will need him to step up in big moments. Finebaum’s concern is that, as highly skilled as Manning may be, the Longhorns are asking a lot from him right away, which could result in some early struggles. The development of Manning as a leader will be pivotal for Texas’ long-term success, but it may take time before he truly finds his rhythm.

The Challenge of Transitioning to the SEC

While the Big 12 has been a competitive conference over the years, it is widely considered that the SEC is the gold standard in college football. Beginning in 2025, Texas will officially join the SEC, and the challenges that come with this transition cannot be understated. The SEC is home to some of the most formidable teams in college football, including the defending national champions, Georgia, perennial powerhouses like Alabama, and rising contenders like LSU.

The physicality and speed of SEC football will be a major adjustment for the Longhorns, and it’s reasonable to expect that Texas could experience a rocky start to the season as they begin to face tougher competition on a weekly basis. Under Steve Sarkisian, the Longhorns will need to adapt quickly to the rigors of SEC play, which often requires a different level of intensity, depth, and consistency.

One of the biggest challenges for Texas in the SEC will be maintaining line play on both sides of the ball. While the Longhorns have recruited well in recent years, and have some talented offensive and defensive linemen, the SEC is known for its dominant lines of scrimmage. The physical nature of SEC football will test Texas’ ability to establish a running game and protect Manning in the pocket. If the Longhorns are unable to win the battle in the trenches, it will be difficult to compete with the upper echelon of the SEC.

Additionally, the SEC’s grueling schedule will present a new set of obstacles for Texas. With its full slate of conference games, including matchups against powerhouses like Alabama, LSU, and Auburn, the Longhorns will be thrown into the fire immediately. Finebaum’s prediction of a rocky start is likely tied to the difficulty of these early games, which could prove too much for a program still finding its footing in the SEC.

Texas’ Depth and Development

While Texas is certainly talent-rich, one area where Finebaum’s prediction of a rocky start may hold weight is depth. Although the Longhorns have recruited well under Sarkisian, there is still a question of whether they have the kind of depth needed to compete at the highest level in the SEC. Injuries and inconsistent performances from key players can derail any team’s season, and Texas could find themselves struggling if they are unable to adequately replace talent at key positions.

The Longhorns’ depth at linebacker, defensive back, and along the offensive line could prove to be a challenge. Additionally, while Texas has solid players in skill positions such as running back and wide receiver, it remains to be seen whether they can consistently perform at the level required to compete with the top SEC teams.

The development of key recruits will also play a major role in Texas’ performance during the 2025 season. While players like Arch Manning and Jaden Greathouse are expected to make an immediate impact, the Longhorns will need to develop their younger talent quickly in order to avoid a rocky start to the season.

 Why a Rocky Start May Be Inevitable

There are certainly reasons for optimism surrounding the Texas Longhorns’ football program, particularly with the addition of Arch Manning and the team’s overall trajectory under Steve Sarkisian. However, Paul Finebaum’s prediction of a rocky start to the 2025 season is not without merit. The transition to the SEC will be a difficult adjustment for a team that has not yet consistently competed at the highest level, and Arch Manning will have to navigate the growing pains of being a freshman quarterback in one of the most competitive conferences in the nation.

While Texas has the potential to become a national championship contender in the near future, 2025 may represent a year of transition, where they face early struggles as they acclimate to SEC football. Finebaum’s prediction reflects the realities of college football—no team, no matter how talented, is immune to challenges, and Texas may need time to build the necessary depth and experience to compete with the best.

That being said, the future of Texas Longhorns football is undeniably bright. With elite talent coming in, a rising star at quarterback, and a coach who has the potential to turn the program around, the Longhorns may just need to weather the storm in 2025 before truly making their mark on the national stage.