Arch Manning and the defensive captain are lost by the Texas Longhorns in the far too early 2026 NFL Mock Draft.

As we dive deep into the landscape of college football, certain programs and players seem to carry an unshakable weight of expectation. The Texas Longhorns football team, once considered a perennial powerhouse in the sport, has made strides in recent seasons under head coach Steve Sarkisian. With elite talent like quarterback Arch Manning on board for the 2025 season and a growing list of recruits, Texas is aiming to return to the top of college football. However, as the 2026 NFL draft season approaches, there are murmurs of uncertainty.

In an early look at the 2026 NFL Draft, the Longhorns have found themselves in a bit of a conundrum. Despite having one of the top quarterbacks in Arch Manning, and a defensive captain that is the heart and soul of their defense, both have seemingly slipped in early projections for the draft. This article will explore why the two Texas standouts—Manning and the defensive captain—are notably absent or lower than expected in the 2026 NFL Mock Draft, and what that could mean for the Longhorns in the coming years.

Arch Manning: The Pressure and Potential Falloff

When the Manning name is attached to a player, expectations are naturally high. Arch Manning, the nephew of NFL legends Peyton and Eli Manning, has been heralded as one of the most talented quarterbacks to come out of high school in years. Manning’s commitment to Texas was met with immense fanfare, with many envisioning him as the savior of a program desperate for national relevance.

But the world of college football is a complicated one. The hype around Manning has only intensified due to his lineage, and the Texas Longhorns will be hoping that their future star can live up to it. However, the 2026 NFL Mock Draft has raised some questions. Manning, once projected as a potential top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, has seen his stock drop in some mock drafts as of early 2026.

The reasoning behind this drop can be multifaceted:

1. Adjustment to College Football: Manning is set to enter Texas as a freshman in 2025, but even with his incredible pedigree, he will still be learning how to compete at the college level. The game is faster, the defenses are more sophisticated, and the overall intensity is at a different level than anything Manning has experienced before. Even with his raw talent, it’s reasonable to believe he will go through growing pains as a first-year starter.
2. SEC Transition: With Texas moving to the SEC in 2025, Manning will be facing a new set of challenges. The SEC is home to some of the most dominant defenses in the country, and if Manning struggles to find consistency against this type of competition, it could hurt his stock. SEC defenses are known for their speed, physicality, and complexity, and it’s going to be difficult for Manning to immediately thrive in such an environment.
3. Pressure of Expectations: While the pressure on Manning is self-imposed in part due to his last name, it’s still significant. For a young player to be considered one of the top quarterbacks in the country before even playing a college snap can lead to a kind of mental block or burden. Should Manning struggle in his first few seasons, it’s possible that his draft stock could suffer as a result of those unrealistic expectations.
4. Other Quarterback Talents: The 2026 NFL Draft class is expected to be loaded with top-tier quarterbacks. Players from Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama could overshadow Manning’s potential, especially if they perform at an elite level in the lead-up to the draft. This potential overcrowding of quarterback talent could push Manning down the rankings.

While Manning is immensely talented, and his future is undoubtedly still bright, there’s a possibility that these early projections may not reflect a smooth and seamless transition from high school to college football. If Manning struggles to adjust, his stock may take a hit, causing him to drop in future projections.

The Defensive Captain: A Rising Star or a Questionable Pick?

On the other side of the ball, Texas has a player who has become the defensive captain—a leader on the field and a player expected to help anchor a defense that is still coming together. However, when looking at the 2026 NFL Mock Draft, there’s a curious absence or lower placement of the Longhorns’ defensive captain among the top prospects.

This scenario raises some important questions: Why is a player widely regarded as one of the best defenders in college football being overlooked in favor of others? Let’s break down the potential reasons for this.

1. Scheme Fit and Position Value: As important as a player’s talent is, their draft stock can often depend on the position they play and how their skills fit into the NFL. Defensive players, particularly in the front seven, are crucial to a team’s success, but they can be devalued depending on the system. If Texas’ defensive captain plays in a scheme that doesn’t highlight his individual strengths, it could hurt his stock in a draft that often favors players who thrive in high-visibility positions. In today’s NFL, there is also increasing emphasis on versatile defensive backs, and a strong linebacker or edge rusher may not receive the same kind of attention unless they are consistently dominant.
2. Injury Concerns: Injuries are a constant concern for any player, and if Texas’ defensive captain has had a history of injuries or has shown signs of vulnerability during college, it could lead NFL scouts to be more cautious. This would contribute to a drop in stock, as teams might question the durability of the player over the course of a long NFL career.
3. Lack of National Exposure: While Texas has played some big games, it’s possible that the defensive captain has not received the same national spotlight as other defensive stars playing for perennial championship contenders. As college football’s media landscape grows increasingly national, players from schools like Alabama, Georgia, and Michigan often get more exposure than those from Texas. The lack of exposure could be a factor in early mock drafts, as NFL teams are likely to focus more on players they see regularly.
4. Coaching and Development: Another crucial factor in the draft process is how a player develops during their time in college. Texas has made strides under Steve Sarkisian, but there’s still a significant gap between the Longhorns and the very best college programs in terms of consistency and player development. If Texas’ defensive captain doesn’t have the opportunity to shine in a high-caliber system, or if the coaching staff struggles to bring out the best in him, it could lead to a less-than-ideal draft projection.

The 2026 NFL Draft and Texas Longhorns’ Future

Looking at the 2026 NFL Mock Draft, it’s easy to become concerned about Texas’ two standout players, Arch Manning and the defensive captain. However, the draft predictions at this point are far from set in stone. The college football landscape can shift dramatically in the span of a season or two, and players who are underappreciated today could find their stock skyrocket with strong performances and development.

For Texas, the next few seasons are crucial. They need Manning to develop into the player everyone expects, and they need their defensive captain to dominate the line of scrimmage or the secondary to show scouts that he has the skill set to thrive at the next level. As Texas continues its transition to the SEC, they will face the type of competition that can make or break players, with the added pressure of being under the spotlight of the nation’s best defenses.

Ultimately, whether Manning and the defensive captain rise or fall in the 2026 NFL Draft will depend on their ability to adjust, develop, and perform at a level that matches their potential. While the early mock drafts may be harsh on Texas, the ultimate success of both players—and the future of the Longhorns—remains an exciting narrative to watch as the college football season unfolds.