Ryan Day’s $38 million wager: The cost of Ohio State’s championship success is high

In the world of college football, success is measured not just by wins and losses but by recruiting classes, the quality of players, and—most importantly—the bottom line. For Ohio State University, the stakes have never been higher. With a $38 million contract extension for head coach Ryan Day, the university has made it clear that it is fully committed to contending for championships year in and year out. However, this hefty price tag raises significant questions about what Ohio State is willing to sacrifice in the pursuit of football glory, the financial cost of such an investment, and the broader implications for the program.

While Day has undoubtedly achieved success in his tenure as the head coach of the Buckeyes, leading them to multiple College Football Playoff appearances and a national championship in 2020, the expectations placed on him and the program have only increased. The path to a national championship is no longer a mere objective for Ohio State—it is a mandate. Yet, Day’s contract extension, with its eye-popping figure, brings a mix of admiration for the achievements already secured and trepidation about the weight of such expectations moving forward. For the fans, the administration, and the team, Day’s new deal could be both a blessing and a burden.

Ryan Day’s $38 Million Contract: The Context and the Pressure

In April 2023, Ryan Day’s contract extension with Ohio State placed him among the highest-paid coaches in college football, with a reported $38 million in guaranteed money over several years. At first glance, the contract speaks volumes about the university’s faith in Day and its commitment to maintaining a place at the top of college football. His track record, which includes a 45–6 record through his first five seasons and a Big Ten title, only strengthens Ohio State’s resolve to keep him in charge for the foreseeable future.

However, with such a substantial deal comes immense pressure. The $38 million wager is not just an investment in Day’s leadership and skills but also a reflection of the towering expectations of the Ohio State football program. The Buckeyes are a blue-blood program with a long history of success. As such, the level of scrutiny on Day’s performance will only intensify with each passing season.

While his resume is impressive, the glaring absence of a national championship since 2014—when Urban Meyer led Ohio State to a title—casts a shadow over Day’s tenure. The 2020 season, where the Buckeyes came within a game of the championship before being ultimately bested by Alabama, seemed like Day’s best opportunity to capture the elusive title. Despite strong recruiting, Ohio State’s failure to close the deal has fueled doubts among fans and commentators alike.

It is in this context that Day’s $38 million extension begins to take on greater significance. While it is a commitment from the university, it is also a high-risk wager. The expectation is clear: Day’s Ohio State teams must deliver a national championship, or the hefty price tag may come to symbolize a costly failure.

The Financial Commitment: A Double-Edged Sword

A $38 million investment in a college football coach is no small matter. For Ohio State, a powerhouse athletic department, the move is not only a statement of confidence but also a direct response to the increasing costs associated with building a championship-caliber program. Day’s new contract is a part of a larger trend in college football where coaching salaries have skyrocketed in recent years, reaching levels previously unimaginable.

To understand the weight of this financial commitment, consider the fact that the average salary for top-tier college football coaches has risen dramatically. The average salary for a Power Five head coach is now estimated to be around $4 million to $6 million per year, but elite programs like Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia are pushing the envelope with contract extensions and recruiting budgets that are often far above the norm.

In Day’s case, the $38 million figure is not just a salary but also a reflection of the resources that Ohio State is dedicating to recruiting, facilities, and the development of its football program. The recruitment of high-profile players, the development of state-of-the-art facilities, and the overall operation of the team come at a high cost. With Day’s contract extension, Ohio State has bet big on its future success. But whether that investment will pay off remains a critical question.

The financial outlay required to keep up with recruiting wars and player retention has driven some to question whether this kind of investment is sustainable in the long run. As college football’s most successful programs continue to break financial records, there is growing concern about the viability of such astronomical contracts, especially given the NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) era, which has dramatically altered the landscape of college sports. Schools now face the dual challenge of paying their coaches handsomely while also navigating the new world of player compensation and retention.

For Ohio State, the risk is twofold: not only must Day meet the high expectations for championships, but the university must also manage the increasingly complex financial landscape of college football.

Recruiting and the Transfer Portal: The Price of Talent

One of the reasons Day’s $38 million contract is so significant is because it reflects the necessity of constantly attracting top-tier talent to stay competitive in the Big Ten and nationally. The college football landscape has changed drastically over the last decade, with the transfer portal and NIL deals altering the way teams build their rosters. The days of a program relying solely on high school recruiting and traditional development models are long gone.

In today’s game, a coach like Day needs to balance the long-term development of recruits with the immediate needs of the transfer portal. This means that Ohio State must be willing to invest not just in coaching but also in the infrastructure needed to support a constantly evolving roster. Whether it’s paying a quarterback in the transfer portal or offering significant NIL deals to high school recruits, Ohio State must stay at the cutting edge of these developments.

For Day, this financial wager represents more than just an obligation to perform. It’s a recognition that success in college football today requires relentless recruiting, aggressive retention strategies, and state-of-the-art facilities to compete at the highest levels. The cost of bringing in elite talent is only rising, and Ohio State’s financial commitment to Day is a direct reflection of this reality. To build a championship contender, Ohio State needs a coach who can successfully navigate this new recruiting landscape, manage the roster’s evolving needs, and ensure that the program remains competitive in the ever-changing world of college football.

The Toll of Expectations: A Championship or Bust Mentality

With Day’s new contract extension comes an unspoken but clear “championship or bust” mentality. For a program like Ohio State, success is not measured by mere bowl appearances or conference titles—it is defined by national championships. The pressure to win at such a level can be overwhelming, and for Ryan Day, the expectation to bring home a national title is at the forefront of his tenure.

This expectation is not without merit. Under his leadership, Ohio State has consistently been one of the most successful programs in the country. The Buckeyes have made multiple College Football Playoff appearances, and Day has helped elevate Ohio State’s offense to one of the most potent units in the nation. However, fans and administration alike will not settle for anything less than a championship.

The cost of failure for Ryan Day is not just financial—it is reputational. College football fans are notoriously fickle when it comes to evaluating coaches. Even the most successful programs will not tolerate mediocrity for long. If Day fails to bring Ohio State another national title within a few years, his contract could quickly turn from an investment in success to a burden of unmet expectations.

Beyond Day, the players themselves also feel the weight of those expectations. With massive NIL deals becoming more common, there’s a growing sense of urgency among athletes to win now, lest they miss their chance to capitalize on their college fame. The pressure to perform is growing on both sides—the coaches and the players—and that pressure can have both positive and negative effects on performance.

A Complicated Legacy: The Future of Ohio State Football

Ryan Day’s $38 million contract is a clear message from Ohio State’s athletic department: the university is committed to being a dominant force in college football. However, the immense pressure associated with such an investment will test Day’s ability to navigate both the external pressures and the challenges within his own program.

Ohio State fans are rightly excited about their team’s future, and Day’s contract extension shows that the program has no intention of slowing down. However, the high cost of Day’s success means that anything less than a national championship will likely be seen as a failure. The balance between high expectations, financial investment, and the reality of the college football landscape is delicate.

Whether or not Day can deliver a national championship to Ohio State remains to be seen, but the $38 million wager signifies that there is no turning back. For better or for worse, Ryan Day and Ohio State are now all-in on a quest for college football supremacy, and the financial, emotional, and institutional cost of that pursuit is higher than ever before.