Josh Pate casts doubts over Brent Venables’ Oklahoma Sooners due to strength of schedule for 2025

As the 2025 college football season rapidly approaches, expectations for the Oklahoma Sooners are sky-high. Under the leadership of head coach Brent Venables, the Sooners are expected to bounce back from previous struggles on the defensive side of the ball and return to national prominence. Venables, known for his defensive acumen, has made significant strides in recruiting and developing talent on defense, which has been a point of focus since he took over the program. However, despite the optimism surrounding the program’s direction, there are concerns about whether the Sooners will be able to compete at the highest level in 2025. College football analyst Josh Pate has expressed doubts about Oklahoma’s ability to meet those expectations, largely due to the strength of their schedule and how it could affect their overall performance.

The Optimism Surrounding Brent Venables and the 2025 Season

When Brent Venables took over as head coach of Oklahoma in 2022, he inherited a program with an explosive offense but a defense that was often a liability. In his first two seasons, Venables began working on shifting the program’s identity back toward defensive dominance, as he had done at Clemson. Venables’ goal was simple—transform the Sooners into a well-rounded, balanced team capable of winning championships, not just outscoring opponents. This ambition was especially important after Oklahoma’s defensive shortcomings had been exposed in critical moments, particularly during high-profile games like the College Football Playoff and Big 12 Championship.

The program took a significant step forward in recruiting for the 2025 season. Oklahoma’s 2025 class was one of the top-ranked in the nation, with a specific emphasis on defensive recruits. With a new batch of talented defensive players coming in, including high-profile defensive linemen, linebackers, and secondary talent, there’s a sense of excitement surrounding the potential improvements. Along with Venables’ defensive system, which emphasizes aggressive play and player development, the hope is that Oklahoma can finally field a defense that can compete with the Big 12’s high-powered offenses and, ultimately, make a deep run into the College Football Playoff.

However, despite these positive developments, one of the major concerns that has emerged is whether the Sooners will be able to truly compete for a national title in 2025. And for Josh Pate, this concern boils down to one key issue—the strength of schedule.

Josh Pate’s Concerns About Oklahoma’s Schedule

Josh Pate, a respected college football analyst known for his insightful commentary and analysis, has raised questions about whether Oklahoma’s schedule in 2025 could undermine the program’s championship aspirations. Pate is particularly concerned about the balance between strength of schedule and how the Sooners will perform in their quest to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff.

The Big 12 Conference, where Oklahoma has long been one of the top teams, has seen significant changes in recent years. The departures of key programs like Texas and Oklahoma itself to the SEC will have a ripple effect on the competitive balance of the conference, and some analysts believe the level of competition within the Big 12 will be impacted as well. While Oklahoma is still a favorite in the Big 12, questions remain about whether the conference will be able to produce enough elite-level competition to adequately prepare the Sooners for the national spotlight.

Moreover, Pate’s concerns are compounded by the fact that Oklahoma’s non-conference schedule in 2025 may not provide the kind of rigorous challenges needed to truly test the team’s readiness for the playoffs. Non-conference matchups are often a crucial litmus test for teams seeking a spot in the College Football Playoff, as they provide a unique opportunity to face teams from other Power Five conferences and showcase the strength of a program’s roster. If Oklahoma’s non-conference opponents are not up to par, it could be difficult for the Sooners to build a compelling case for a playoff spot if they don’t dominate their conference slate.

The Potential Pitfalls of a Weak Schedule

The lack of a challenging schedule is a concern for many reasons, especially when it comes to how the selection committee evaluates teams for the College Football Playoff. Historically, the playoff committee places a high value on the quality of a team’s opponents, especially in non-conference play. Teams that schedule marquee matchups against other national contenders often benefit from the committee’s perception of strength. On the other hand, teams that face weaker competition can find themselves in a precarious situation if their in-conference performances aren’t dominant enough.

Pate’s analysis suggests that the Sooners’ schedule may not allow them to build the necessary resume to warrant a playoff berth. While Oklahoma has historically been dominant in the Big 12, their strength of schedule will be scrutinized more than ever in 2025, especially as they transition into the SEC in the near future. The Sooners will have to demonstrate that they can handle a tough slate of games, both within the Big 12 and outside of it. If they are unable to do so, even with a potentially improved defense and high expectations for the team, Oklahoma could find themselves on the outside looking in when the playoff rankings are released.

Key Factors That Could Impact Oklahoma’s 2025 Schedule

There are a few key elements to consider when evaluating Oklahoma’s strength of schedule in 2025, and these factors could directly influence how well the Sooners perform and how they’re perceived by the College Football Playoff selection committee.

1. Big 12 Changes and the Lack of Heavyweight Teams

One of the primary concerns with Oklahoma’s schedule is the shifting landscape of the Big 12. As Oklahoma and Texas prepare for their transition to the SEC, the Big 12 will have to adapt. The departure of these two powerhouses creates a gap in the conference’s overall strength. While teams like Baylor, Kansas State, and TCU have been competitive in recent years, there is no clear-cut, consistent challenger to Oklahoma’s dominance within the conference.

If Oklahoma is playing in a conference where the competition is less challenging, their ability to impress the selection committee will be diminished. While the Sooners may have the talent to cruise through the conference, there may not be enough marquee matchups within the Big 12 to elevate their resume.

2. Non-Conference Schedule Weakness

Beyond conference play, Pate also points out that the Sooners’ non-conference slate may not provide the necessary challenges to boost their playoff credentials. Non-conference games against Power Five teams are often used as a way to gauge how a team will fare against elite competition. If Oklahoma’s non-conference opponents are not strong enough, it could be difficult for the Sooners to prove that they are worthy of a spot in the playoff, even if they dominate the Big 12.

3. The Pressure of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee

Each year, the College Football Playoff selection committee evaluates teams based on several factors, including overall record, strength of schedule, conference championships, and head-to-head results. In the past, Oklahoma has had difficulty securing a playoff berth due to their lack of a truly dominant defense, even when their offense was one of the best in the nation. In 2025, if Oklahoma does not have a strong enough schedule to boost their resume, they could be left out of the playoff, even if they perform well in the Big 12.

4. Potential Surprises in the Big 12

While Oklahoma is still expected to be one of the top teams in the Big 12, the league has produced several surprises in recent years. Teams like Baylor and Kansas State have been able to pull off major upsets, which means that Oklahoma could face some unexpected challenges. While these games may offer opportunities for the Sooners to strengthen their playoff case, they also present potential pitfalls that could derail an otherwise strong season.

Venables’ Strategy: Will It Be Enough?

Brent Venables has been vocal about his commitment to improving Oklahoma’s defense and building a balanced team capable of competing with the best. The Sooners’ defensive overhaul, especially with the influx of elite recruits in the 2025 class, is designed to address the vulnerabilities that have plagued them in recent seasons. However, as Josh Pate has pointed out, Oklahoma’s defensive improvements may not be enough if the team doesn’t face the kind of competition needed to prepare them for the national stage.

Venables’ ability to develop defensive talent will be tested more than ever in 2025. Oklahoma’s defense will need to shine against what could be a lackluster Big 12 slate, and the Sooners will need to prove themselves in non-conference play. If they are unable to do so, even a well-coached team under Venables might not be able to meet expectations in the eyes of the College Football Playoff committee.