Although Duke basketball continues to win, are the Blue Devils’ offensive difficulties cause for concern?

The 2025 Duke basketball season has been a successful one thus far, with the Blue Devils sporting a strong 18-2 record, sitting atop the ACC standings, and continuing to assert themselves as one of the premier programs in college basketball. While the team’s defense has been suffocating, and its roster is filled with exceptional young talent, there are growing concerns regarding the team’s offensive inefficiency.

Duke’s offensive difficulties, while not necessarily derailing their overall success, have surfaced as a significant topic of discussion among fans, analysts, and even Coach Jon Scheyer. Although they have continued to win games, the Blue Devils’ struggles on the offensive end raise the question: Are these difficulties merely a temporary issue that will correct itself as the season progresses, or are they indicative of a deeper, more systemic problem that could haunt them come tournament time?

Offensive Challenges: A Close Look at the Numbers

Duke’s offense has been one of the most potent in the country in some areas but has struggled with consistency in others. The Blue Devils are averaging 82 points per game, which ranks them among the top offenses in the country. However, when you dig deeper into the numbers, there are significant inefficiencies that raise concerns.

1. Shooting Percentages

One of the most notable areas of concern for Duke’s offense is their shooting efficiency. As of the midpoint of the season, Duke is shooting just 44.7% from the field, which ranks outside the top 50 in Division I basketball. This figure is especially problematic when considering their reliance on their frontcourt players, such as Kyle Filipowski and Dereck Lively II, who both have a considerable presence in the paint. While both players are capable of finishing near the rim, the team’s overall shooting struggles are evident when it comes to perimeter shooting and shot selection.

In particular, Duke’s three-point shooting has been a weak point. The Blue Devils are shooting a mere 30.1% from beyond the arc, ranking them near the bottom of the ACC in this category. In an era of modern college basketball that heavily emphasizes three-point shooting, Duke’s inability to consistently hit from the outside puts added pressure on their interior game. Opponents can afford to pack the paint and focus on defending the rim, knowing that Duke has not shown the ability to consistently punish them from long-range.

2. Turnovers and Ball Control

Another troubling aspect of Duke’s offense has been their struggles with ball control. Through 20 games, the Blue Devils have averaged 14.7 turnovers per game, which places them among the higher end of teams in this category. Turnovers are a critical issue because they not only result in wasted possessions but also fuel fast-break opportunities for opposing teams. Given that Duke has several freshmen who are still learning the nuances of college basketball, their turnover issues can be attributed, in part, to inexperience.

However, even some of the team’s veteran players, like Tyrese Proctor and Jacob Grandison, have shown occasional lapses in ball security. Duke’s ball control problems often disrupt their offensive flow and can make them more susceptible to runs from their opponents, as turnovers lead to easy transition opportunities.

3. Lack of Offensive Diversity

While Duke’s offense is certainly potent at times, it can also be predictable. Much of their offensive scheme runs through Filipowski, Proctor, and Lively, which, when successful, can create matchup problems for opposing defenses. However, when those players are neutralized, or when Duke’s shooting is off, the Blue Devils have struggled to find consistent scoring options.

Kyle Filipowski has been the team’s most reliable scorer, but when he is double-teamed or facing tough defensive matchups, Duke’s offense tends to stagnate. Tyrese Proctor has shown flashes of brilliance as a playmaker and scorer, but as a freshman, he is still developing and can sometimes be inconsistent. Dereck Lively II, while a tremendous defensive presence, is still a work in progress on offense. His ability to finish in the paint is solid, but he lacks the polished offensive game of a go-to scorer.

Duke’s lack of offensive depth has been exposed during some of their tougher matchups, particularly against teams with strong defenses. Against those teams, the Blue Devils have struggled to generate easy scoring opportunities and have had to rely too heavily on individual efforts from their stars, which is not always a sustainable formula.

Impact of Offensive Struggles on Duke’s Success

While Duke’s offensive difficulties are evident, it’s important to acknowledge that they have continued to win games, thanks in large part to their dominant defense. The Blue Devils have been one of the best defensive teams in the country, ranking in the top 10 in both scoring defense and defensive efficiency. Their ability to shut down opposing offenses has allowed them to survive their offensive inconsistencies and still secure victories, often by wearing down opponents and making timely plays.

Duke’s defense, led by the rim protection of Dereck Lively II, the perimeter defense of Proctor and Grandison, and the rebounding prowess of Filipowski, has been a major reason for their success. Their defensive schemes have allowed them to stifle opposing offenses and force turnovers, which in turn generates fast-break opportunities for the offense.

However, the Blue Devils cannot rely on their defense alone for a deep run in March. As the competition stiffens in the ACC tournament and the NCAA Tournament, teams will exploit any weaknesses in Duke’s offense, especially if the Blue Devils continue to struggle with shooting and ball control. Against teams with strong defenses and high-scoring offenses, Duke may find themselves in situations where they need to outscore opponents in tight, high-pressure games—something that has not always been their strength.

Potential Solutions: Can Duke Fix Their Offensive Issues?

Although Duke’s offensive difficulties are a concern, the team has the potential to improve in several areas. With a blend of veteran leadership and talented freshmen, there are key adjustments that Coach Jon Scheyer can make to address these issues and make the Blue Devils more dynamic offensively.

1. Improving Perimeter Shooting

One of the most straightforward solutions to Duke’s offensive struggles would be to improve their three-point shooting. Currently, the Blue Devils are relying too heavily on their interior game, which, while effective, is not always sustainable against teams with strong big men or those that can neutralize their frontcourt players.

Encouraging players like Tyrese Proctor, Jacob Grandison, and even Kyle Filipowski to be more aggressive and confident from beyond the arc could help open up the offense. If Duke can develop more of a threat from the perimeter, it would force opponents to stretch their defense, creating more opportunities for penetration and post-ups. Proctor, in particular, has shown flashes of being able to hit outside shots but has yet to develop a consistent three-point stroke.

2. Enhancing Ball Movement

Duke’s offense would also benefit from more fluid ball movement. While Proctor has been a solid playmaker, there have been instances where the offense has become stagnant, with players holding onto the ball too long or relying too heavily on isolation plays. By improving their ball movement, Duke can create more open looks and find easier baskets. Ball movement could also help alleviate some of the pressure on Filipowski, who often faces double-teams in the post.

Spreading the floor and making quick decisions will help Duke’s offense become more unpredictable and difficult to defend. More off-the-ball movement could also allow players like Mark Mitchell and Grandison to get easier shots, rather than depending on contested mid-range jumpers or tough finishes at the rim.

3. Increasing Offensive Depth

Another potential solution would be for the supporting cast, particularly players like Mark Mitchell and Dereck Lively II, to become more consistent scoring options. While Mitchell has been solid as a forward, his scoring has not always been reliable. Lively, on the other hand, needs to continue developing his offensive game in order to be a legitimate scoring threat. His size and athleticism are a tremendous asset, but he is still raw offensively and struggles to consistently score outside of put-backs and lob finishes.

If these players can develop more scoring consistency, it would take some of the burden off Filipowski and Proctor. Duke could then diversify their offensive attack and become more difficult to defend.

The Road Ahead: March Madness and Beyond

As Duke heads into the second half of the season, their offensive difficulties remain an area of concern. However, it’s not all doom and gloom. With an elite defense, talented players who are capable of improvement, and a coaching staff that is adept at making adjustments, Duke still has the tools to address their issues.

The road to the ACC Tournament and NCAA Tournament will be a challenging one, and the Blue Devils will need to step up their offensive game in order to compete with the best teams in the country. If they can become a more balanced team, with improved shooting, ball movement, and offensive depth, Duke will be a force to be reckoned with in March.