Tennessee’s Josh Heupel can only hope their transfer portal estimate was correct | Adams

The transfer portal has become one of the most critical aspects of college football recruiting and roster building, and Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel has certainly felt the weight of that. The dynamic nature of player movement in and out of the portal presents both challenges and opportunities, with Heupel needing to stay ahead of the curve while ensuring his program remains competitive in the fiercely competitive Southeastern Conference (SEC).

As the transfer portal has evolved, it has grown from a tool for disgruntled players seeking new opportunities to a vital piece of roster management for coaches nationwide. The sheer volume of players entering the portal annually is staggering, and Tennessee, as one of the top programs in college football, is expected to take full advantage of its ability to attract talent from this ever-growing pool. But with such opportunity comes risk, and Heupel’s program is walking a fine line between revitalizing his team with talented newcomers and ensuring that his core roster stays intact and effective.

A Deep Dive into Tennessee’s Approach to the Transfer Portal

When Heupel took over as Tennessee’s head coach in 2021, one of his first tasks was to rebuild a program that had fallen on hard times, underperforming relative to the school’s history and expectations. It was evident early on that recruiting high school players would not be the only avenue through which Tennessee could bolster its roster. Given the chaos of roster turnover across college football, the transfer portal provided a fast-track solution to filling immediate needs. Heupel wasted no time in tapping into this resource, securing players who could contribute right away and add depth to the roster.

In the years following, Tennessee’s approach to the transfer portal continued to evolve. Instead of merely filling spots, the Vols have been more strategic, targeting players who align with Heupel’s high-tempo offense and defensive schemes. While the previous staff had dealt with turnover through traditional recruiting, Heupel embraced the opportunity to bring in ready-made talent that could immediately fit in and make a difference on the field.

For example, in 2023, Tennessee landed a mix of players with experience at key positions, including skill positions and the trenches. Players who could immediately contribute on offense, defense, and special teams were identified, and the hope was that they would plug the holes that existed due to graduation, injury, or lack of depth in certain areas. The Vols were able to find immediate contributors who played prominent roles in helping them secure another strong season.

That said, the transfer portal also means that Tennessee has to carefully balance the intake of new players with the development of their younger, homegrown talent. In other words, Heupel needed to ensure that the influx of portal players didn’t disrupt the development of Tennessee’s recruits. The team needed both immediate contributors and players who would stay long-term and become integral parts of the program’s future.

The Role of Data in Tennessee’s Transfer Portal Strategy

As the transfer portal continues to dominate the college football landscape, analytics and data have taken on a larger role in helping teams navigate these waters. Heupel and his staff rely heavily on data-driven approaches to assess potential transfer candidates, considering not only athleticism but also fit within the team culture and system.

Heupel’s team must evaluate multiple factors before offering a scholarship to a portal player. These factors include positional need, on-field performance at their previous school, injury history, work ethic, and academic standing. Evaluating fit goes beyond just the numbers, however. Heupel and his staff need to ensure that players coming in can handle the pressures of playing for Tennessee and buying into the team-first mentality that Heupel preaches.

The staff also works closely with Tennessee’s analytics department, which has grown in importance under Heupel. These analysts break down game tape, review metrics on players’ performance, and predict how incoming transfers would adjust to Tennessee’s unique system. The sheer volume of transfers makes it impossible to evaluate every potential player, so this data-driven approach becomes crucial for identifying the right players to target. It’s a strategy built on probability and optimization rather than pure guesswork.

Tennessee’s Transfer Portal Estimate: A Matter of Risk

One of the key aspects of Heupel’s transfer portal strategy has been establishing an internal “estimate” or projection for each player. In simple terms, this estimate involves a careful calculation of how a player is likely to perform based on their previous collegiate experience, physical metrics, and compatibility with Tennessee’s style of play. It’s an attempt to forecast how a player will contribute to the program over their remaining eligibility.

However, the transfer portal is not an exact science, and even with the best estimates, there are always unknowns. For example, players coming from lower-tier schools or different systems might take longer to adapt to the speed and complexity of SEC football. On the flip side, a player from a premier program might not translate as expected. Sometimes, these transfers turn into major contributors, but other times they fail to make an impact, either due to injuries, personal issues, or an inability to adapt to the new system.

As Heupel continues to build Tennessee into a national contender, the pressure on him to make the right transfer portal decisions only intensifies. A misstep in the transfer portal could leave the program in a difficult spot, especially when considering how much money and time are invested in building a competitive team.

The Risks of Over-Reliance on the Portal

Heupel’s approach to the portal isn’t without risks. While the transfer portal has allowed programs like Tennessee to accelerate roster rebuilding, there are dangers in over-relying on transfers. The best programs are still built primarily through high school recruiting, with transfers supplementing those efforts. Coaches must ensure that the culture of the team remains strong and that there is continuity within the roster. Overloading the team with transfers can disrupt this balance.

Moreover, a heavy reliance on the transfer portal can result in a lack of player development, especially if coaches focus too much on the short-term gains that transfers provide. Players who enter the program through the transfer portal may not have the same long-term commitment to the team that homegrown recruits do. Tennessee’s success hinges not only on the immediate impact of portal players but also on continuing to develop and nurture players who stay through the entirety of their college careers.

For Heupel, it’s crucial that the portal serves as a supplement to the long-term vision for Tennessee, not as a crutch. While the immediate benefits can be alluring, the ultimate goal is to build a program that doesn’t rely too heavily on external additions.

Looking Ahead: Will Heupel’s Estimates Pay Off?

As the 2025 season approaches, all eyes are on Tennessee’s ability to navigate the transfer portal once again. With an updated roster featuring several key additions, the Vols’ expectations will be higher than ever. Heupel’s ability to secure talent from the transfer portal will play a significant role in whether or not Tennessee can challenge for an SEC title and, potentially, a playoff spot.

The success or failure of Tennessee’s transfer portal strategy will ultimately depend on how well Heupel’s team performs in 2025. If their estimates were correct and the newcomers live up to their potential, Tennessee could be poised for a major breakthrough. If not, it could prove to be another step in an ongoing rebuilding process that never quite reaches its full potential.

In college football, success is measured in championships, and with the fierce competition of the SEC, Heupel’s window to prove that his transfer portal strategy is sound is narrowing. For now, he can only hope that the risk they took—relying heavily on the transfer portal—pays off. Heupel and his staff will be watching closely as they evaluate the results of their estimates in the coming season. If they’ve calculated correctly, Tennessee’s program could be well on its way to returning to national prominence.

But as in all of college football, one thing is certain: the portal will continue to be an unpredictable and ever-evolving part of the landscape. The key to success will be adaptability, as Heupel and his staff remain vigilant in tracking the portal’s ebb and flow, hoping that their strategic moves will pay off both now and in the future.