Tennessee football was excluded from the early projections for the 2025 college football playoffs.
As the 2025 College Football Playoff (CFP) picture begins to take shape, the exclusion of the Tennessee Volunteers from the early projections has raised eyebrows and sparked discussions across the college football landscape. Tennessee, under head coach Josh Heupel, has made significant strides over the past few seasons, culminating in a resurgence of competitiveness within the Southeastern Conference (SEC). However, the exclusion from the early CFP projections has left many questioning what the Volunteers need to do to break into the playoff picture and how they can further elevate their program on the national stage.
In this article, we will dive into the factors that led to Tennessee’s exclusion from the early 2025 CFP projections, analyze the challenges and hurdles they face in their quest for playoff contention, and offer a roadmap for the Vols to reestablish themselves as legitimate national contenders.
Tennessee’s Recent Success Under Josh Heupel
Before we explore why Tennessee was excluded from early CFP projections for 2025, it’s important to acknowledge the progress that the Volunteers have made in recent years. Under the leadership of head coach Josh Heupel, Tennessee has returned to national prominence, largely thanks to a high-powered offense, a rejuvenated defense, and solid recruiting efforts. Heupel’s offensive system, known for its up-tempo, pass-heavy approach, has made the Volunteers one of the most dangerous teams in the SEC.
In 2022, Tennessee had a breakthrough season, finishing with an 11-2 record, including a dramatic win over Alabama, a program-defining victory for the Vols. Quarterback Hendon Hooker’s stellar play and the emergence of standout wide receivers like Jalin Hyatt were key to the Vols’ success. The offense, which was already one of the most prolific in the country, hit new heights with explosive plays and high-scoring affairs, and Tennessee’s defense showed noticeable improvement.
Despite a strong 2022 campaign, the Volunteers ultimately fell short of making the College Football Playoff due to a few key losses, including a tough defeat to Georgia. Nevertheless, Tennessee’s resurgence in 2022 earned them a spot in a major bowl game, and they ended the season ranked No. 6 in the AP Poll.
The 2023 season was somewhat of a rebuilding year, with key departures in the form of NFL-bound players like Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt. However, Heupel and his staff continued to bring in talented recruits and retained a solid core of players. Tennessee finished the regular season with a respectable 9-3 record, though they faced struggles in key SEC matchups, and those losses contributed to their exclusion from the 2024 CFP projections.
The Early 2025 College Football Playoff Projections
As the 2025 college football season approaches, analysts and pundits are already making their predictions for the teams that are likely to contend for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Given Tennessee’s recent success under Heupel and their rapid rise in the SEC, many expected them to be a part of the early discussions.
However, when the first CFP projections for 2025 were released, Tennessee was noticeably absent from the list of top contenders. This exclusion may come as a surprise to fans and analysts who expected the Vols to continue their upward trajectory, but a closer look reveals several factors that contributed to this snub.
Factors Contributing to Tennessee’s Exclusion from Early CFP Projections
- SEC’s Strength and Depth
One of the biggest challenges for Tennessee in the early 2025 projections is the sheer strength and depth of the Southeastern Conference (SEC). The SEC remains the most competitive and talent-laden conference in college football, with perennial powers like Alabama, Georgia, LSU, and now even teams like Ole Miss and Arkansas emerging as contenders.
While Tennessee has made significant strides in recent years, the competition within the SEC is daunting. Georgia, in particular, has been the dominant force in the SEC, winning national championships in recent years under head coach Kirby Smart. Alabama, despite recent struggles, remains a perennial powerhouse under Nick Saban, and LSU has emerged as a formidable contender with Brian Kelly at the helm.
For Tennessee to break through the SEC’s elite, they will have to overcome these perennial contenders, and the early projections reflect skepticism about whether the Volunteers can consistently compete with the SEC’s best.
- Quarterback Uncertainty
Another key factor in Tennessee’s exclusion from the early 2025 CFP projections is the uncertainty surrounding the quarterback position. While Tennessee has historically been known for producing top-tier quarterbacks, the departure of Hendon Hooker to the NFL leaves a significant void. Hooker’s leadership and exceptional playmaking ability were pivotal to Tennessee’s offensive success, and his absence presents a challenge for the Vols heading into the 2025 season.
As of now, Tennessee is expected to rely on a mix of quarterbacks with potential but unproven track records. While players like Joe Milton and Nico Iamaleava have shown flashes of talent, neither has proven to be as consistent or game-changing as Hooker was. In a high-stakes, high-pressure conference like the SEC, having a reliable, elite quarterback is often a determining factor in playoff contention. Until Tennessee can establish a quarterback that can consistently execute Heupel’s offense at a high level, the team’s playoff hopes will remain uncertain.
- Inconsistent Defensive Play
While Tennessee’s offense under Josh Heupel has been one of the most explosive in college football, the defense has been a more significant area of concern. Despite improvements over the years, the Volunteers’ defense has often been inconsistent, and they have struggled to stop high-powered offenses in critical games. Tennessee’s inability to slow down powerful offenses like Alabama and Georgia, especially in the second half of games, has been a key factor in their losses.
In the SEC, where games often come down to physicality and defensive prowess, a lack of a consistently strong defense can hinder Tennessee’s playoff aspirations. Teams that can dominate both sides of the ball, especially in key SEC matchups, have a better chance of securing a CFP spot. Tennessee’s inability to consistently get stops, particularly against elite offenses, remains a major concern for the 2025 season.
- Recruiting Trajectory
Another important factor in Tennessee’s exclusion from the early 2025 CFP projections is the program’s recruiting trajectory. While Heupel has done a tremendous job of bringing in top talent, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, Tennessee’s recruiting class for the 2024 and 2025 seasons has not quite matched the level of some of the SEC’s most elite programs.
Teams like Alabama, Georgia, and LSU continue to sign highly ranked recruiting classes year after year, and their sustained success in talent acquisition gives them an edge when it comes to depth and long-term success. Tennessee has made strides in recruiting, but it will need to keep pace with the SEC’s heavyweights to remain competitive at the highest level. Until the Volunteers consistently sign top-5 recruiting classes, their ability to break into the top tier of the CFP will remain in question.
How Tennessee Can Reestablish Itself as a CFP Contender
While the early projections for the 2025 College Football Playoff may not favor Tennessee, the Vols still have the potential to make a strong push for a spot. Here are several ways they can reestablish themselves as legitimate CFP contenders:
- Develop a Consistent Quarterback
Tennessee’s first order of business is to establish a reliable, game-changing quarterback. The Volunteers need someone who can lead the offense with poise, accuracy, and the ability to make plays in crucial moments. If they can find a quarterback who can execute Heupel’s high-tempo offense at a high level, Tennessee will be in a much stronger position to compete for a playoff spot.
- Strengthen the Defense
Improving the defense should be a top priority for Tennessee. The Volunteers need to find ways to consistently stop opposing offenses and get off the field on third downs. Strengthening the defensive line and secondary, as well as improving defensive depth, will be key to Tennessee’s success. A more balanced team, with a potent offense and a stouter defense, will be much more competitive in the SEC and nationally.
- Recruiting Excellence
Tennessee must continue to invest in recruiting and develop a pipeline of elite talent. By securing more top-tier recruits, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, the Volunteers can build a more well-rounded and competitive team. Competing with the likes of Alabama and Georgia on the recruiting trail will be essential to their success in the years to come.
- Winning Key SEC Games
Finally, Tennessee will need to win the critical SEC matchups. Victories over teams like Alabama, Georgia, and LSU will go a long way in proving that they belong in the playoff conversation. The Volunteers have shown they can win big games, but they need to do so more consistently to earn the respect and recognition necessary for a playoff berth.
