Tennessee football was excluded from the early projections for the 2025 college football playoffs.

The College Football Playoff (CFP) has evolved into one of the most anticipated events in sports, shaping the trajectory of college football programs each season. Every year, teams across the nation look to secure one of the coveted four spots in the playoff bracket, which ultimately decides the national champion. The excitement surrounding the playoff race is immense, and as soon as the season concludes, projections for the following year’s CFP inevitably begin to surface.

However, for Tennessee Volunteers football, a surprising exclusion from early projections for the 2025 College Football Playoffs has sparked conversation. While the Vols have enjoyed a resurgence under head coach Josh Heupel, the exclusion from early CFP discussions has led to questions regarding the team’s standing within the broader landscape of college football. Despite their strong performance in recent years, Tennessee appears to be on the outside looking in when it comes to the 2025 projections.

This article will explore the reasons behind Tennessee’s exclusion from the early 2025 College Football Playoff projections, analyzing the Vols’ recent performance, roster status, competition in the SEC, and the broader landscape of college football. By understanding the factors contributing to Tennessee’s exclusion, we can better assess where the program stands and what needs to happen for them to break into the playoff conversation.

Tennessee’s Resurgence Under Josh Heupel

Before delving into the reasons for Tennessee’s exclusion from early CFP projections, it’s important to acknowledge the progress the program has made under the leadership of head coach Josh Heupel. When Heupel took over in 2021, Tennessee was coming off a turbulent period, with coaching changes, player transfers, and underperformance on the field. The Vols were far from the national powerhouse they once were in the 1990s under coaches like Phillip Fulmer.

However, Heupel’s offensive system—built around a high-tempo, fast-paced, pass-heavy attack—quickly gained traction in the SEC. In just his second year, Tennessee posted an 11-win season and a prominent bowl victory, marking the program’s first 11-win season since 2001. The Vols also saw a surge in offensive production, with quarterback Hendon Hooker emerging as a legitimate Heisman candidate.

The 2023 season saw Tennessee remain competitive, with the offense continuing to put up impressive numbers. The arrival of freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava in 2023, along with the return of key playmakers, indicated that the program was well-positioned to continue its upward trajectory. The expectations surrounding Heupel’s offense, combined with the potential of the roster, led many to believe that Tennessee was not far from the playoff conversation.

Yet, despite the program’s resurgence and the excitement surrounding its future, early projections for the 2025 College Football Playoff have excluded Tennessee from the top-tier rankings.

Reasons Behind the Exclusion: Why Tennessee Was Left Out

1. The Intense Competition in the SEC

One of the most significant factors contributing to Tennessee’s exclusion from early CFP projections is the brutal competition they face within the SEC, the most dominant and competitive conference in college football. The SEC has long been home to some of the most powerful programs in the country, with teams like Alabama, Georgia, LSU, and others vying for playoff spots year in and year out.

In particular, Georgia and Alabama have established themselves as perennial playoff contenders under head coaches Kirby Smart and Nick Saban, respectively. The Bulldogs, fresh off national championships in 2021 and 2023, are expected to remain one of the most dominant teams in college football. With a loaded roster, a stout defense, and a stable quarterback situation, Georgia has all the tools to contend for a playoff spot in 2025.

Alabama, while undergoing some transition with quarterback changes and new offensive schemes, remains a powerhouse in recruiting and overall talent acquisition. Even when the Crimson Tide might be in a “down” year, their overall talent and coaching make them dangerous. Thus, for a program like Tennessee, which resides in the SEC East, the competition for playoff spots is particularly fierce.

As a result, the Vols face a nearly impossible task of navigating through the regular season and securing one of the four coveted CFP spots. While Tennessee could certainly have a strong season, competing for a playoff spot within the SEC is a significant hurdle, and the volume of strong SEC teams often leads to playoff exclusions for teams that don’t secure a conference championship.

2. The SEC East vs. SEC West

While the SEC has been an incredibly competitive conference, the division alignment also plays a role in Tennessee’s exclusion from early projections. The Vols compete in the SEC East, a division that, in recent years, has often been overshadowed by the strength of the SEC West.

In particular, Georgia has dominated the SEC East in recent seasons, making it difficult for Tennessee to establish themselves as the premier program in the division. While the Vols have made strides under Heupel, the challenge of dethroning Georgia as the dominant team in the SEC East is a major factor in their exclusion from the playoff conversation.

On the other hand, the SEC West remains a powerhouse, with teams like Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss constantly in the mix for playoff contention. This imbalance in strength between the two divisions creates a situation where teams in the SEC East, like Tennessee, must not only contend with each other but also the juggernauts from the SEC West, who often dominate the national rankings and earn spots in the playoff conversation.

For Tennessee to break into the playoff discussion, they will need to overcome Georgia and secure a spot in the SEC Championship Game. That would put them in direct competition with the top teams from the SEC West, which is no easy task.

3. The Vols’ Uncertainty at Quarterback and Key Positions

Another critical factor in Tennessee’s exclusion from early CFP projections is the uncertainty surrounding the quarterback position and other key roster spots. While Nico Iamaleava has the potential to be a star, he is still a young quarterback who has yet to face the intensity of SEC defenses. His development, while promising, is still a question mark. The pressure of starting as a freshman—or possibly sophomore—quarterback in the SEC could prove difficult, especially if Tennessee’s offensive line or receiving corps does not fully live up to expectations.

In addition to Iamaleava’s development, Tennessee also faces uncertainty at other key positions. Injuries, player development, and roster turnover can all affect a team’s chances of contending for a playoff spot. While the Vols have talent, they are not immune to the challenges that every team in college football faces, and the potential for stumbles in key positions—such as defensive line, linebacker, or secondary—could derail their hopes for a CFP berth.

Given the importance of having a reliable quarterback and strong overall roster depth, Tennessee’s lack of proven consistency at these positions raises questions about their ability to consistently compete with the best teams in the nation.

4. Early Preseason Projections Favor Established Programs

Finally, early College Football Playoff projections tend to favor programs with a more established track record of success. Teams like Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, and Michigan consistently dominate preseason polls due to their sustained success over multiple seasons. These programs have proven coaching staffs, recruiting prowess, and elite talent that make them automatic contenders for the CFP year after year.

In contrast, while Tennessee has shown promise under Heupel, they still have a relatively short history of success compared to these established powerhouses. Until they can prove they can consistently perform at the highest level and compete with the best teams on a national scale, Tennessee will likely be excluded from early playoff projections, even if they have a strong season.

This lack of consistency and sustained excellence, especially in high-pressure moments, plays a key role in Tennessee’s exclusion. The Vols will need to prove they can compete for an SEC championship and remain competitive in the national spotlight to break into the CFP conversation.

Looking Ahead: What Needs to Happen for Tennessee to Break Into the Playoff Race?

While Tennessee’s exclusion from early College Football Playoff projections might seem disappointing, it also provides an opportunity for the Vols to prove themselves on the field. The team is headed in the right direction under Heupel, and with a talented roster and a high-powered offense, there is potential for Tennessee to make a push for a playoff spot in 2025.

For Tennessee to break into the CFP race, several things need to fall into place:

• Winning the SEC East: The Vols must find a way to dethrone Georgia as the top team in the SEC East. A division championship will give them a chance to compete for an SEC title and the automatic playoff bid that comes with it.
• Developing Consistency at Quarterback: Nico Iamaleava’s development will be crucial. If he can live up to his potential and perform at a high level, Tennessee’s offense will have the firepower to compete with the best teams in the country.
• Staying Healthy and Developing Depth: Tennessee will need to stay healthy across the roster, especially at key positions like offensive line, quarterback, and defensive back. Depth will be critical as the season progresses.
• Securing Key Wins: Tennessee will need to secure statement victories over top teams in the SEC, including Georgia and other potential contenders from the SEC West. These wins will boost their resume and make them more attractive to the selection committee.