Tennessee Football Snubbed from Early 2025 College Football Playoff Projection

The landscape of college football is constantly shifting, with teams rising and falling in the rankings based on both performance and perception. As the 2024 season approaches, Tennessee football was expecting to build on the momentum of its successful 2023 campaign, but the Volunteers have recently found themselves on the outside looking in when it comes to the early projections for the 2025 College Football Playoff (CFP).

Despite a strong showing in 2023, Tennessee’s failure to make the top spots in the early 2025 CFP projections has caused a stir in both Knoxville and the broader college football community. After a season where Tennessee finished with a respectable record, including some impressive wins, not being featured in the early CFP conversation is a blow to the Volunteers’ aspirations. For Tennessee fans, coaches, and players, this snub raises several important questions: Why is Tennessee left out of these projections? How did we get here? And what steps can the program take to change its trajectory and secure a spot in the 2025 College Football Playoff?

In this article, we’ll take an in-depth look at the situation, analyze the reasons behind Tennessee’s exclusion from the early 2025 College Football Playoff projections, and explore the implications for the program moving forward. By examining the factors influencing the decision-making process and Tennessee’s place in the evolving college football hierarchy, we can better understand what lies ahead for Josh Heupel’s Volunteers.

The 2024 Season’s Hopes and Dreams for Tennessee

The Tennessee Volunteers, under head coach Josh Heupel, have made remarkable strides in recent seasons. The dynamic, high-powered offense that Heupel has instilled in the program has been a major selling point, and the team has been competitive in the SEC—arguably the toughest conference in college football. With the likes of Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt leading the charge, Tennessee was one of the most entertaining and high-scoring teams in 2023.

However, despite their offensive prowess, Tennessee’s defense has remained an area of concern. While improvements have been made in recent years, they’ve struggled to consistently stop high-powered offenses, especially in crucial moments. This inconsistency, particularly against top-tier opponents in the SEC, has been one of the reasons Tennessee hasn’t been able to push its way into the CFP conversation.

What is the College Football Playoff Projection and Why Does It Matter?

The College Football Playoff projections are crucial for teams looking to secure one of the coveted four spots in the playoff bracket. These projections help shape expectations for both teams and their fanbases, as well as the recruiting landscape. Early projections are often based on several key factors, including:

• Previous Season Performance: How well a team performed in the prior season, including overall record, strength of schedule, and bowl game results.
• Recruiting and Roster Composition: The talent a team brings into the season, particularly how effective it is in replacing key players who have moved on to the NFL or graduation.
• Coaching Stability and Reputation: The consistency and success of the coaching staff, including whether a program is building momentum or experiencing instability.
• Preseason Rankings: Often influenced by expert opinions, these rankings give an early snapshot of where teams stand heading into the season.

In Tennessee’s case, despite the program’s notable progress under Heupel, a variety of factors have left the Vols out of the early 2025 projections, including competition from perennial powerhouses in the SEC and nationwide. But let’s break this down more specifically.

Why Tennessee Was Snubbed from the 2025 CFP Projections

1. Uncertainty at the Quarterback Position

After the departure of Hendon Hooker, who was one of the most dynamic and experienced quarterbacks in Tennessee’s recent history, the Vols are entering a period of uncertainty under center. While Joe Milton is expected to be the starting quarterback in 2024, questions linger about his ability to continue the high-level production seen under Hooker’s leadership.

Milton has the physical tools—he’s tall, has a cannon for an arm, and possesses impressive athleticism. However, his track record as a starting quarterback is mixed, and he hasn’t shown the same consistency as Hooker in leading the offense. His struggles with accuracy and decision-making in limited action during the 2023 season have raised concerns among analysts and fans alike. These uncertainties around the quarterback position may have contributed to Tennessee being left out of the early College Football Playoff projections, as a shaky quarterback situation can significantly impact a team’s ability to compete at the highest level.

2. Defensive Inconsistencies

Tennessee’s defense has been a glaring issue for much of the Heupel era. While the offense has exploded, the defense has often struggled to keep up. The Volunteers ranked 71st nationally in total defense in 2023, allowing over 400 yards per game. Against high-level SEC competition, this has been a major hindrance.

For Tennessee to take the next step and become a true College Football Playoff contender, it must make improvements on the defensive side of the ball. Key areas of concern include pass rush, secondary play, and the ability to get off the field on third downs. Without these improvements, Tennessee’s defense will continue to be a liability in big games, especially against explosive offenses from teams like Georgia, Alabama, and LSU. If the Vols cannot prove that they can stop high-caliber offenses, it’s difficult to see them making a playoff run, which likely contributed to their exclusion from early projections.

3. Intense Competition in the SEC

One of the biggest factors working against Tennessee is the intense competition in the SEC, particularly in the SEC East and overall conference strength. Even though Tennessee has made considerable strides, the SEC is still dominated by heavyweights like Georgia, Alabama, and LSU.

• Georgia, the defending national champions, remains the team to beat in the SEC and college football as a whole. Under Kirby Smart, the Bulldogs have created a powerhouse that’s expected to remain at the top for the foreseeable future.
• Alabama, despite some questions regarding their offense, remains an elite program with a historically strong defense and a proven track record of success.
• LSU, under Brian Kelly, has also emerged as a top-tier program with a high-powered offense and a stout defense, making them a contender for a playoff berth.

With these programs still dominating the SEC, it’s easy to see how Tennessee could get lost in the shuffle. As long as the Vols continue to face off against juggernauts in the SEC, especially in the East against Georgia, their margin for error is razor-thin.

4. Lack of Dominance in Key Games

Tennessee’s performance in big games has been another reason why it has been snubbed from the early 2025 CFP projections. While the Vols have shown the ability to compete, they’ve failed to secure the big-time wins necessary to solidify their playoff positioning.

In 2023, Tennessee’s loss to Georgia—though expected—was a critical blow to their playoff chances, as was their loss to South Carolina. In these games, Tennessee failed to make enough plays to compete with the SEC’s elite programs. This inability to win when it matters most leaves lingering doubts about the Vols’ ability to contend at the highest level.

The College Football Playoff selection committee tends to favor teams that dominate their competition, particularly in the regular season. For Tennessee to be included in future CFP projections, they’ll need to prove that they can consistently win against elite teams and perform in high-pressure situations.

5. Recruiting and Roster Development

While Tennessee has made significant strides in recruiting, they still find themselves competing for top talent against schools with long-established winning cultures and deep rosters. Schools like Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State continue to land elite recruiting classes, which gives them a distinct edge in terms of overall roster talent.

Tennessee has made great strides, particularly under Heupel’s leadership, and has landed some key recruits. However, they must continue to build depth, especially in areas like the offensive line, defensive line, and secondary, to compete with the top programs in college football. Without an influx of elite talent, it will be hard for Tennessee to break through and secure a CFP spot in 2025.

The Road Ahead for Tennessee Football

While the early 2025 College Football Playoff projections may not favor Tennessee, it’s important to remember that there is plenty of time for the Vols to prove themselves. Here’s what the Volunteers need to focus on moving forward:

1. Quarterback Development: Joe Milton must step up and prove that he can lead the offense with consistency. If he thrives, it could elevate the entire team and put Tennessee back in the CFP conversation.
2. Defensive Improvement: Tennessee needs to invest heavily in its defense, improving key areas such as pass coverage and the pass rush. A top-tier defense will be crucial for competing with SEC heavyweights.
3. Big Game Performance: The Vols need to prove that they can win the big games, particularly against Georgia, Alabama, and other national championship contenders.
4. Recruiting: Tennessee’s recruiting efforts must continue to evolve, particularly as it competes with elite programs for top talent. The future success of the program will be heavily dependent on bringing in game-changing players.