Major Program Named by Paul Finebaum He doesn’t think he will win the 2025 college football playoffs.

Paul Finebaum Predicts a Major Program Won’t Win the 2025 College Football Playoffs: Analyzing the Unlikely Contender

In the world of college football, where there are always intense debates about who will win the national championship, one voice stands out for its often bold and controversial takes: Paul Finebaum. The well-known ESPN analyst and host of the Paul Finebaum Show has been a fixture in college football media for years. Known for his blunt, sometimes polarizing opinions, Finebaum has built a reputation for making bold predictions — and when it comes to the 2025 College Football Playoff (CFP), he has already named a major program that he doesn’t believe will win it all.

In this article, we’ll dive into the rationale behind Finebaum’s opinion and analyze why he believes this particular major program won’t be able to capture the 2025 national title. We’ll look at factors like recruiting, player development, coaching stability, and the increasingly competitive landscape of college football to understand whether Finebaum’s take holds water, or if it’s just another hot take in a sport full of uncertainty.

The Major Program Finebaum Believes Won’t Win It All

While Finebaum has long been critical of certain programs, his comments on the 2025 College Football Playoff have garnered significant attention. In his recent predictions and analysis, he pointed to Alabama as the program he doesn’t think will win the national championship in 2025. The Crimson Tide, led by legendary head coach Nick Saban, have been one of the most dominant programs in college football for over a decade. Alabama has secured six national championships under Saban since 2009, and consistently finishes with top-tier recruiting classes.

However, Finebaum has expressed skepticism about Alabama’s ability to win it all in 2025, pointing to several factors that he believes will prevent the Tide from hoisting the CFP trophy next season.

1. The Rise of Other Elite Programs

One of Finebaum’s main reasons for predicting that Alabama won’t win the 2025 national title lies in the rise of other elite programs. While Alabama has long been the gold standard in college football, other schools — particularly Georgia, Ohio State, and Clemson — have made significant strides in recent years. Georgia, in particular, has emerged as Alabama’s biggest challenger in the SEC and nationally, winning back-to-back national titles in 2022 and 2023.

Finebaum’s argument centers around the fact that Alabama is no longer the undisputed leader in college football. As Georgia’s program has reached new heights, it has attracted elite recruits, developed a powerhouse defense, and consistently competed at the highest level. Kirby Smart, a former Saban assistant, has turned Georgia into a juggernaut that poses a serious challenge to Alabama’s supremacy. Finebaum believes that Georgia’s momentum, combined with Ohio State’s perennial talent pool and Clemson’s ability to recruit and develop, will ultimately create a more competitive environment in 2025 — one in which Alabama may struggle to assert its dominance.

The ability for programs like Georgia to maintain success year in and year out, in part through NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) and the transfer portal, is something Finebaum notes. The Crimson Tide may have once been able to maintain an edge through traditional methods of player recruitment, but in a world where NIL deals and the transfer portal significantly impact team-building, Alabama faces competition like never before.

2. Changes in Alabama’s Coaching Staff and Player Development

Alabama’s coaching staff has seen some changes in recent years. While Nick Saban remains the undisputed leader of the program, Finebaum has pointed to possible concerns surrounding the transition and development of the team’s assistants. Saban has had to navigate coaching turnover, as multiple assistants have moved on to head coaching jobs at other programs, which has led to adjustments in his staff.

Most notably, Bill O’Brien, the former offensive coordinator, left after the 2022 season to become the offensive coordinator for the New England Patriots, and Pete Golding, the defensive coordinator, departed for the same position at Ole Miss. These departures create a degree of uncertainty about the overall chemistry and consistency within the program. Finebaum sees this as a significant hurdle for Alabama in 2025 because it disrupts the program’s ability to maintain the same level of development across the board, particularly on both sides of the ball.

While Kevin Steele has returned to take over as defensive coordinator and Tommy Rees was hired as offensive coordinator, Finebaum believes that it takes time for these new coordinators to adapt to Saban’s system and culture. Coaching turnover and adapting to new systems may make it more difficult for Alabama to be as sharp and polished as they have been in the past. In an era of intense competition, especially with programs like Georgia, Alabama may struggle to regain the same dominance they once had when their coaching staff was more stable.

Additionally, Finebaum questions the long-term effectiveness of Saban’s player development system. While Alabama has certainly developed some top-tier NFL talent, Finebaum has pointed out that some of their recent recruiting classes have been inconsistent when it comes to producing immediate impact players. Finebaum believes that without the usual stream of top-tier, game-changing talent — particularly on offense — Alabama may struggle to win a national championship in 2025.

3. Quarterback Play and Offensive Questions

Another key factor in Finebaum’s assessment of Alabama’s chances in 2025 is the uncertainty surrounding the quarterback position. Alabama has had great success with quarterbacks like Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, and Mac Jones, all of whom led the Crimson Tide to the playoff or national championship contention. However, 2023 saw inconsistency at the position with Jalen Milroe and Ty Simpson splitting time under center. While Milroe showed flashes of brilliance, he also struggled with consistency at times, particularly in key moments.

Finebaum notes that the Tide’s quarterback play will be crucial in determining their success in 2025. If Milroe or Simpson do not develop into a steady, reliable leader under center, Alabama may not have the offensive firepower to keep up with teams like Georgia, who have elite quarterbacks like Carson Beck (assuming he stays for the 2025 season). The Crimson Tide has always been known for its dominant running game and defense, but in recent years, the offense has needed strong quarterback play to keep up with the evolving nature of college football, which is increasingly built around high-powered offenses.

If Alabama’s quarterbacks continue to struggle with accuracy or decision-making, Finebaum argues that they may struggle to keep pace with other playoff contenders in 2025. In such a competitive landscape, quarterback play is often the difference between making it to the championship and falling short.

4. NIL and Recruiting Competition

The introduction of NIL and its impact on recruiting is a topic Finebaum has discussed extensively. Programs like Texas, USC, and Miami have been able to make significant strides in recruiting through NIL deals that attract top-tier talent. With the increased availability of NIL compensation, many recruits are looking for schools where they can not only develop their athletic careers but also secure substantial financial opportunities during their college careers.

While Alabama has certainly kept up with the NIL landscape, Finebaum believes that other programs may be better positioned to take advantage of the new system. Schools in major media markets or those with strong boosters backing NIL deals may be able to offer more lucrative opportunities to recruits, potentially drawing talent away from traditional powerhouses like Alabama.

Finebaum points to the increased competition in the recruiting space as a factor that may prevent Alabama from maintaining its recruiting dominance in the years ahead. With so many schools offering competitive NIL opportunities, Alabama’s success in recruiting the best players is no longer guaranteed.