Major Program Named by Paul Finebaum He doesn’t think he will win the 2025 college football playoffs.

As the 2024-2025 college football season heats up, analysts and pundits across the country are offering their predictions on which teams have the best shot at making it to the College Football Playoff (CFP). One of the most well-known voices in college football media, Paul Finebaum, has weighed in on the upcoming season with a notable and controversial stance. In a recent segment, Finebaum boldly declared that one of college football’s most prominent programs, the Texas Longhorns, will not win the 2025 College Football Playoff, despite their continued rise to national prominence.

This assertion from Finebaum sent shockwaves through the college football world. Texas, once a powerhouse in the mid-2000s under head coach Mack Brown, is a program that has faced years of rebuilding after its last national title in 2005. Under the guidance of Steve Sarkisian, the Longhorns have shown promising growth, improving steadily each season. However, Finebaum’s comments come at a crucial juncture, as Texas enters the next phase of its revival, a phase that includes a move to the SEC in 2024, which is set to dramatically raise the level of competition the Longhorns will face.

The Current State of Texas Football: A Program on the Rise

Before diving into the reasons behind Finebaum’s skepticism, it’s important to understand where Texas currently stands in the landscape of college football. Since the days of Vince Young and Mack Brown’s national championships, the Longhorns have had a tumultuous run of seasons marked by coaching changes, inconsistency, and underperformance. However, the hiring of Steve Sarkisian in 2021 marked a turning point for the program, with the former Alabama offensive coordinator bringing a dynamic offensive system to Austin.

Texas has seen tangible improvements in recent seasons. The Longhorns boasted an impressive 2023 campaign, finishing the season with a 10-3 record, which included significant wins over rival Oklahoma and a strong showing against top-ranked opponents. Players like Quinn Ewers, the highly touted quarterback, and Bijan Robinson, who was a dominant force in the backfield before moving on to the NFL, were pivotal in raising the program’s national profile.

Moreover, Sarkisian has been steadily assembling one of the more talented rosters in college football, with elite recruiting classes, top-tier transfers, and strong development of young talent. Texas’ offense, led by Ewers, is one of the more explosive units in the country, capable of scoring in bunches and challenging defenses through the air. With a solid defense and a returning group of key contributors, the Longhorns have legitimate aspirations to compete for an SEC title and a CFP berth in the coming years.

The Move to the SEC: More Competition, Bigger Challenges

Texas is set to join the Southeastern Conference (SEC) in 2024, an inevitable step that could either elevate the program to new heights or put its future aspirations on hold. The SEC, widely regarded as the most competitive and physically demanding conference in college football, has long been dominated by programs like Alabama, Georgia, and LSU, with other contenders like Tennessee and Ole Miss also rising in prominence.

Finebaum’s criticism of Texas largely stems from the challenges that the program will face in the SEC. Historically, the Longhorns have dominated the Big 12, but the SEC is an entirely different beast, with its grueling schedule, elite teams, and deep talent pools. Finebaum is skeptical that Texas is fully prepared to compete at the highest level of college football, particularly when it comes to winning national titles.

Finebaum pointed out that while Texas is undeniably talented and on an upward trajectory, the jump from the Big 12 to the SEC is one that should not be underestimated. In the SEC, Texas will face not just one or two elite teams each season, but a slate of competition week in and week out. Programs like Alabama, Georgia, and LSU have been battle-tested in the SEC, and they bring a level of physicality, depth, and coaching that can overwhelm even the most well-prepared teams.

Alabama and Georgia: The Unmovable Giants of the SEC

At the core of Finebaum’s reasoning lies the fact that two SEC teams—Alabama and Georgia—are the gold standard of college football. Both teams have dominated the landscape of college football for the past decade, and both teams are not expected to slow down any time soon. Alabama, under Nick Saban, has consistently been a national title contender, while Georgia, led by Kirby Smart, has established itself as a juggernaut with back-to-back national championships in 2022 and 2023.

Alabama, despite a brief rebuilding period, remains one of the most dangerous teams in the country. The Crimson Tide are built on a foundation of elite recruiting, top-notch coaching, and the ability to thrive in big games. With Jalen Milroe at quarterback and an outstanding defense, Alabama will continue to be a dominant force in the SEC and a major contender for the national title. Texas will face an uphill battle when they encounter Alabama, as the Crimson Tide are known for suffocating offenses and exploiting weaknesses, something that could hinder Texas’ championship aspirations.

Georgia, meanwhile, has emerged as the premier program in college football over the last few seasons. With a defense that has been historically dominant and an offense capable of keeping pace with the best in the country, Georgia is a national powerhouse that is difficult to dethrone. Their ability to recruit at the highest level and maintain a championship-winning culture is something Texas will have to match in order to contend for SEC titles and playoff berths.

Both Alabama and Georgia have extensive championship pedigrees, deeply entrenched coaching staffs, and recruiting advantages that Texas will need to overcome if they want to win the SEC and ultimately, the College Football Playoff. According to Finebaum, Texas will struggle to assert itself in this new and much more challenging environment.

The Big-12 to SEC Transition: Texas’ Growing Pains

While it’s clear that Texas has a ton of talent, Finebaum is unconvinced that the program will be able to make an immediate impact in the SEC, especially in 2025. He raised concerns about how the Longhorns will handle the transition to playing against the SEC’s elite defenses and physical teams, particularly with an SEC schedule that doesn’t allow for “gimme” games.

Texas’ move from the Big 12 to the SEC will result in tougher competition, and that’s something Finebaum believes will test the team’s resolve and maturity. The Big 12, although competitive, doesn’t feature the depth of elite teams that the SEC does. In the SEC, Texas will face perennial powerhouses like Alabama, Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee. All of these teams are capable of beating the Longhorns, especially in the heightened pressure of a playoff race.

The SEC schedule is unforgiving. While Texas has historically been a dominant force in the Big 12, the SEC’s level of physicality and its ability to expose weaknesses in teams has been a major factor in determining champions. Texas may win some big games during the regular season, but when it comes to the SEC Championship and playoff-level competition, Finebaum believes the Longhorns will struggle to assert themselves. The gauntlet that is the SEC could prove too much for Texas to overcome in their first few years, and this is why Finebaum doesn’t see them as a contender to win the CFP in 2025.

Texas’ Key Areas of Concern: Depth and Consistency

While Texas certainly has the talent to compete, Finebaum pointed out that they lack the depth and consistency necessary to win the College Football Playoff, especially in comparison to Alabama and Georgia. The Longhorns have recruited well in recent years, but the SEC is notorious for its ability to build depth across the roster, and that’s something Texas will need to develop if they hope to compete.

In particular, Texas’ offensive line and defensive backfield remain areas of concern. While the offense is explosive, the line has been inconsistent at times, and the defense has had lapses in big games. Against SEC powerhouses, where mistakes are amplified and every play counts, Texas cannot afford to be outmatched in these crucial areas.

Additionally, Texas’ ability to adapt to the SEC’s unique challenges will be tested. In the Big 12, teams often play a more up-tempo style, and Texas has been able to thrive in that system. However, the SEC is known for its grind-it-out, physical brand of football. If Texas struggles to adjust to the style of play in the SEC, they may find themselves overwhelmed, particularly in crucial moments.

Finebaum’s Prediction and Texas’ Path Forward

In conclusion, Paul Finebaum’s declaration that Texas will not win the 2025 College Football Playoff is rooted in his belief that the Longhorns are not yet ready to compete at the highest level in the SEC. While the program has shown tremendous growth under Steve Sarkisian, Finebaum argues that Texas’ lack of depth, the difficulty of the SEC schedule, and the dominance of teams like Alabama and Georgia will prevent the Longhorns from winning the CFP in 2025.

Despite these challenges, Texas fans should take hope in the fact that the Longhorns are moving in the right direction. The 2024-2025 season marks a new chapter in Texas football, and while Finebaum’s skepticism may seem harsh, it could serve as a motivating factor for the program to prove its doubters wrong. However, unless Texas can continue to develop its roster, improve its consistency, and handle the physicality of the SEC, Finebaum’s prediction may prove to be accurate, at least for the 2025 season.

Ultimately, the path to a College Football Playoff title for Texas is still within reach, but the road will be long, and the competition will be fierce. It will take time, adjustments, and significant growth for the Longhorns to match the giants of the SEC and challenge for a national championship in the near future.