The likelihood that each Vikings free agent will return to Minnesota in 2025
As the 2024 NFL season draws to a close, the Minnesota Vikings find themselves in a critical period of roster evaluation and decision-making regarding their free agents. With some key players set to become unrestricted free agents in 2025, the front office must decide which players will remain part of the franchise’s future and which ones may be moving on. Whether it’s due to salary cap considerations, positional depth, or the team’s overall long-term vision, each free agent’s situation varies in terms of likelihood to return.
This article will take a deep dive into each of the major Vikings free agents heading into the 2025 season, breaking down their current situation, their impact on the team, and the chances that they will return to Minnesota.
1. Kirk Cousins – Quarterback
Likelihood of Return: 40%
Kirk Cousins is one of the most interesting free-agent cases for the Vikings heading into 2025. On one hand, he has been the starting quarterback for Minnesota for several years and has posted solid individual statistics. On the other hand, the Vikings are clearly on the edge of a transition, especially as Cousins continues to get older and the team’s championship window narrows.
While Cousins remains an effective and productive quarterback, there’s uncertainty surrounding his future in Minnesota. He’s been a reliable leader for the team, but his contract is sizable, and the Vikings’ front office may want to explore the future of the quarterback position. Given the NFL’s trend toward younger quarterbacks on rookie contracts, it’s possible that the Vikings could decide to move on and draft a quarterback of the future or explore options like Jaren Hall, who the team drafted recently.
Cousins’ age (he’ll be 36 in 2025) and the team’s financial flexibility will play a big role in this decision. His future in Minnesota is not guaranteed, but there is still a possibility that the Vikings will want to keep him for continuity and leadership if they feel they can build a championship-contending team around him.
2. Dalvin Cook – Running Back
Likelihood of Return: 25%
Dalvin Cook is one of the more polarizing players for the Vikings heading into free agency. Over the last few years, Cook has been a dynamic running back for Minnesota, capable of taking over games and providing an explosive element to the offense. However, Cook has also been burdened by injuries, and his contract is a significant factor in the decision-making process.
With the rise of Alexander Mattison as a solid complement to Cook, the Vikings may look to move on from the 28-year-old running back. The running back market has been changing, and the value of high-paid running backs is becoming less evident, especially given the increasing focus on passing attacks and committee backfields.
Cook’s large salary might make it difficult for Minnesota to retain him, especially with salary cap constraints in mind. As the Vikings enter a critical period of roster building, it’s likely that they will not prioritize Cook’s return, especially if they can save cap space by moving on. Given Cook’s diminishing role and the rise of Mattison, the likelihood of Cook returning in 2025 seems slim.
3. Justin Jefferson – Wide Receiver
Likelihood of Return: 100%
As one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, Justin Jefferson is undoubtedly the centerpiece of the Vikings’ offense and their future. The Vikings will do whatever it takes to keep Jefferson in Minnesota for the long haul. With two years left on his current deal before he is eligible for a massive extension, Jefferson’s return to the Vikings in 2025 is virtually a lock.
Jefferson has been a superstar since entering the league, and his ability to make plays at any point in the game makes him indispensable to the Vikings’ offensive success. He is expected to command a record-setting contract extension, and the Vikings will likely prioritize keeping him happy and keeping him on the roster.
His chemistry with Cousins, his ability to stretch the field, and his versatility make him the focal point of the offense. There is no question that Jefferson will return to the Vikings, and his extension will be one of the most significant moves for the team in the near future.
4. Za’Darius Smith – Outside Linebacker
Likelihood of Return: 50%
Za’Darius Smith has been an important pass rusher for the Vikings since joining the team, and his ability to generate pressure off the edge has been crucial to the team’s defense. However, Smith will be 32 years old in 2025, and the Vikings must evaluate whether he is still a long-term solution for the pass rush.
While Smith continues to be an impactful player, his age and contract make it unlikely that he will return on the same deal unless he’s willing to take a reduced salary. The Vikings have young pass rushers like Patrick Jones II and Janarius Robinson who are developing, and the team could look to build around them in the coming seasons.
Smith’s leadership and production are valuable, but Minnesota may move on from him due to cap reasons and the long-term focus on younger, more affordable options. If Smith is open to a restructured deal, he could potentially return, but the odds are uncertain at this point.
5. Harrison Smith – Safety
Likelihood of Return: 40%
Harrison Smith is another player whose future with the Vikings could be in question as he enters free agency. Smith is one of the most respected safeties in the league and has been a cornerstone of the Vikings’ defense for years. However, like Smith, he is in the twilight of his career, and Minnesota may be looking to get younger at the safety position.
Smith has shown no signs of slowing down, but with the Vikings needing to balance their salary cap and develop younger players, it’s possible that they may look to move in a different direction. Players like Camryn Bynum have shown promise at safety, and the Vikings could choose to move forward with a younger, more cost-effective option.
That said, Smith’s leadership and ability to make game-changing plays in critical moments could keep him in Minnesota for at least one more season. However, the likelihood of him returning on a large contract is lower, as the Vikings will need to weigh his salary versus his overall impact in 2025.
6. Adam Thielen – Wide Receiver
Likelihood of Return: 20%
Adam Thielen has been a staple of the Minnesota Vikings’ receiving corps for years, but at 34 years old, his future with the team is becoming less certain. Thielen still has the ability to make plays, but he’s no longer the dominant force he once was. With the emergence of younger receivers like K.J. Osborn and the focus on Jefferson as the No. 1 option, Thielen’s role in the offense has diminished.
Financially, Thielen carries a hefty salary that may make him a candidate for release or trade, especially as the Vikings work to clear cap space for other needs. While Thielen is a fan favorite and has been a valuable player for the team, the likelihood of his return in 2025 is low unless he agrees to a significantly reduced contract.
7. Alex Mattison – Running Back
Likelihood of Return: 80%
Alex Mattison has been a reliable backup for Dalvin Cook, and he’s shown the ability to handle a larger workload when given the opportunity. His performance in relief of Cook has given the Vikings confidence in his ability to be the feature back if necessary.
Mattison is a restricted free agent, which makes it easier for the Vikings to retain him. While there’s always the possibility that another team could offer him a lucrative deal, the Vikings likely view Mattison as a key part of their future. Given his age (24 years old) and upside, there’s a strong likelihood that Mattison will return to the Vikings in 2025, whether as a starter or as part of a committee.
8. Patrick Peterson – Cornerback
Likelihood of Return: 30%
At 35 years old, Patrick Peterson is in the twilight of his career. While he has continued to play at a high level for the Vikings, the team may look to get younger at cornerback. Peterson has been a valuable mentor and leader in the secondary, but the Vikings could use the opportunity to bring in younger cornerbacks who fit their long-term plans.
Given the Vikings’ need to focus on younger talent in the secondary, it seems unlikely that Peterson will return unless he is willing to accept a veteran minimum deal. However, his leadership and experience will likely be a factor in determining whether he stays or retires.
A Year of Transition for the Vikings
The 2025 offseason for the Minnesota Vikings promises to be a pivotal one. With some key players set to hit free agency, the Vikings must carefully evaluate their roster and determine who fits into their long-term plans. While certain players like Justin Jefferson are guaranteed to return, others, such as Dalvin Cook and Harrison Smith, face uncertain futures with the team.
The decisions the Vikings make in the coming months will have a significant impact on their ability to remain competitive in the NFC North and make a playoff push in 2025. As the offseason approaches, all eyes will be on the Vikings front office as they navigate this critical period and make the necessary moves to continue building a championship-caliber team.
