Mailbag 196: Auburn’s position in the preliminary bracket forecasts?
Mailbag 196: Auburn’s Position in the Preliminary Bracket Forecasts
As college basketball heads into the heart of conference play, the race for March Madness intensifies. Teams across the nation are jostling for position in the NCAA Tournament, and the preliminary bracket forecasts have become a hot topic among fans, analysts, and coaches alike. For Auburn basketball, a program that has consistently been competitive in recent years, their placement in these early bracket projections is of particular interest.
In this installment of Mailbag 196, we will take a deep dive into Auburn’s current standing in the NCAA Tournament preliminary bracket forecasts. We’ll examine the team’s performance this season, the factors influencing its seeding, and what the Tigers need to do to improve their chances as March approaches. We’ll also take a look at Auburn’s strengths and weaknesses, the competition they face within the SEC, and how the team might be positioned come Selection Sunday.
Auburn’s Performance This Season: A Snapshot
As of mid-January, Auburn has shown flashes of brilliance but also faced challenges. Under head coach Bruce Pearl, the Tigers have maintained their competitive edge, especially within the Southeastern Conference (SEC), which is known for its intensity and depth. Auburn has developed into one of the more consistent programs in the league, making the NCAA Tournament in most of the past seasons, and it has been a fixture in the upper half of the SEC standings.
Key to Auburn’s performance this season has been the dynamic play of its core players, most notably in the backcourt. Players like Wendell Green Jr., Zep Jasper, and K.D. Johnson have been crucial in guiding the Tigers through tough matchups, both in and outside of conference play. However, the team has also faced some setbacks, particularly when dealing with injuries and a lack of depth in certain positions.
Auburn’s non-conference schedule was filled with high-stakes games, including matchups against powerhouses such as Indiana, North Carolina, and Houston. Their performance in these games gave fans and analysts a clearer picture of the Tigers’ potential, but also exposed weaknesses that could be exploited by stronger teams come tournament time.
The Tigers have also showcased their defensive prowess, a hallmark of Bruce Pearl’s coaching philosophy. Auburn has often been among the top teams in the SEC when it comes to scoring defense, and their ability to stifle opposing offenses has allowed them to win close games. However, their inconsistency on offense, particularly in shooting and ball movement, has left them vulnerable against higher-caliber opponents.
With that said, Auburn is firmly in the conversation for an NCAA Tournament berth, and its standing in preliminary bracket forecasts reflects both its potential and its limitations.
Position in the Preliminary Bracket Forecasts
In the early bracket projections for the 2024 NCAA Tournament, Auburn is consistently listed as a No. 6 seed. This seeding reflects the Tigers’ solid play throughout the first half of the season but acknowledges their occasional struggles with consistency. While not yet a lock for a top-four seed, which would guarantee a more favorable path to the Final Four, Auburn’s positioning as a 6 seed places them in the upper tier of the tournament field, with a legitimate chance to make a deep run.
The No. 6 seed is often a sweet spot in the tournament, as it avoids the pressure of a play-in game or a potentially brutal first-round matchup with a higher-seeded team. However, it’s also in the middle of the pack, meaning that a strong performance in the final stretch of the season could push Auburn into the upper-echelon of seeds, while any slip-ups could push them down to a No. 7 or No. 8 seed.
Auburn’s current No. 6 positioning is a reflection of several factors. One key element is the team’s win-loss record so far. At the time of the bracket forecast, Auburn had secured several notable victories but had also dropped games to top-tier teams in competitive environments. Bracketologists weigh both the quality of victories and the strength of losses when assessing teams for the tournament, and Auburn’s schedule has proven to be a double-edged sword.
Additionally, Auburn’s standing in the SEC plays a major role in its position in these preliminary forecasts. The SEC is widely regarded as one of the toughest conferences in the country, and a solid performance in SEC play typically guarantees a team a higher seed. For Auburn, a strong finish in the SEC standings—potentially securing a top-four finish—would significantly improve its chances of earning a better seed in the tournament.
What Auburn Needs to Do to Improve Their Seed
While Auburn’s current position is favorable, there are several key areas in which the Tigers need to improve if they want to secure a better seeding and avoid an early exit in the tournament. Let’s break down what Auburn needs to focus on in the coming months:
1. Improve Offensive Efficiency
One of the most glaring weaknesses in Auburn’s season so far has been offensive efficiency. The Tigers have shown they can be a high-scoring team at times, but they often struggle with consistency. Their shooting percentage, particularly from beyond the arc, has been erratic, and they have sometimes relied too heavily on individual efforts rather than team-oriented play.
For Auburn to climb up the seeding ladder, improving offensive efficiency is paramount. Bruce Pearl needs to ensure that his team plays within their offensive system, focusing on ball movement, spacing, and creating open shots for their best shooters. If Auburn can develop a more fluid offense that capitalizes on their strengths, they’ll become a more dangerous team come tournament time.
2. Stay Healthy
Like many college basketball programs, Auburn has dealt with injuries this season, and while it hasn’t been catastrophic, staying healthy will be critical to their postseason aspirations. Key players like Jabari Smith (now in the NBA) and Walker Kessler (also in the NBA) were pivotal to their past successes, and while this year’s roster doesn’t have those same high-level prospects, they need to stay at full strength to have a shot at advancing far in the tournament.
Injuries to players like Jaylin Williams and Allen Flanigan have highlighted Auburn’s depth issues, and a sustained run of good health will be key for the Tigers to maintain their competitive edge. If players like Zep Jasper and Wendell Green Jr. continue to lead while the younger players develop, Auburn could make a significant run.
3. Perform Well Against SEC Competition
The SEC is one of the premier conferences in college basketball, and games within the league are often the most telling when it comes to evaluating teams for the NCAA Tournament. Auburn’s remaining SEC schedule will be a critical component of their NCAA Tournament prospects.
Auburn will need to secure victories in some of their more challenging matchups against teams like Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee, and Arkansas—teams that are also vying for top spots in the tournament. Wins against these highly-ranked teams would not only improve Auburn’s resume but would also boost their confidence as they head into March.
4. Defensive Dominance
Auburn’s defense has long been a hallmark of Bruce Pearl’s coaching philosophy, and this season is no different. The Tigers are still one of the top defensive teams in the SEC, holding opponents to low shooting percentages and disrupting their offensive flow. However, while Auburn’s defense is a strength, they need to ensure they don’t become overly reliant on it at the expense of offensive execution.
As Auburn’s offensive efficiency improves, the team will become even more formidable on both ends of the floor. If the Tigers can continue to shut down opposing offenses while simultaneously improving their scoring output, they’ll be a difficult team to beat in the tournament.
Potential Matchups in the NCAA Tournament
Based on the preliminary bracket forecasts, Auburn is projected to be placed in a region that could feature tough matchups in the early rounds. As a No. 6 seed, Auburn would likely face a No. 11 or No. 12 seed in the first round, which often leads to an exciting and unpredictable game.
In the second round, Auburn could potentially face a higher-seeded team, which would test their mettle. A potential matchup with a No. 3 or No. 4 seed could give the Tigers an opportunity to prove they belong among the elite teams in the nation. Given their blend of defensive prowess and emerging offensive firepower, Auburn could be well-positioned to make a run to the Sweet 16 or even the Elite Eight, depending on the matchups they face.
