NFL draft stock in 2025: winners and losers from the enlarged College Football Playoff

The college football landscape is set to undergo a seismic shift with the expansion of the College Football Playoff (CFP) from four teams to 12 beginning in the 2024 season. This change promises to have far-reaching implications not only for the teams and players involved but also for the future of the NFL Draft. With more teams now having a shot at the national championship and additional games on the schedule, it’s expected that more talent will be showcased on the biggest stage in college football. But as with any expansion, there will be winners and losers, especially when it comes to NFL Draft stock in 2025.

The 2025 NFL Draft will be the first to fully reflect the consequences of this expanded playoff format, and as more players take the field in high-pressure games, the extra exposure will offer new opportunities and challenges for prospects. Some players will see their draft stock soar as they rise to the occasion, while others may face a loss in visibility or perform poorly in the national spotlight. In this article, we’ll explore how the expanded College Football Playoff will impact NFL Draft stock, and identify some key winners and losers as a result.

Winners: Players Who Thrive in the Expanded Playoff Format

1. Quarterbacks with Big-Game Potential

The expanded CFP means more high-profile matchups for quarterbacks to display their abilities under the bright lights. Historically, quarterbacks who perform well in the postseason—especially in high-stakes games—can see a significant increase in their draft stock. The added exposure that comes with playing in multiple playoff games gives scouts and evaluators more opportunities to see how a quarterback handles pressure, leadership, and the ability to elevate his team in crucial moments.

One player who could benefit from this increased spotlight is Drake Maye, the star quarterback from the University of North Carolina. Maye, who has already been touted as one of the top quarterbacks in the 2025 class, will have more chances to shine in the expanded CFP. If he leads the Tar Heels to deep playoff runs and plays well against elite defenses, his draft stock could rise significantly, perhaps even to the point of challenging for the number-one pick.

Another quarterback whose stock could benefit is Bo Nix from the University of Oregon. Nix, a veteran quarterback who has shown impressive development in recent years, could benefit from the expanded playoff structure. Having a chance to face some of the nation’s best defenses in high-profile games will give scouts a clearer picture of his ability to compete on the NFL level. If Nix plays well in these big games, it could vault him into the conversation as one of the top quarterbacks selected in 2025.

For quarterbacks like Maye and Nix, the extra playoff games provide additional opportunities for them to prove they can perform when the stakes are high, and in turn, could significantly impact their draft projections.

2. Wide Receivers with Elite Speed and Playmaking Ability

Wide receivers are often the beneficiaries of an increased spotlight during the College Football Playoff. Many of the top wideouts in recent drafts have seen their stock rise thanks to standout performances in bowl games or playoff games, where they are showcased against elite defenses. With more teams participating in the playoff, the chances for elite receivers to demonstrate their talents under the national microscope have increased exponentially.

One player who stands to benefit is Marvin Harrison Jr. of Ohio State. Widely regarded as the top wide receiver prospect in the 2025 class, Harrison will have more chances to show why he’s one of the most dynamic playmakers in college football. His ability to make plays in crucial moments and his physicality at the position will be under constant scrutiny during a potential playoff run. If he can consistently produce in high-pressure games, it could solidify his status as a top-five pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Similarly, Rome Odunze of Washington, another top wide receiver prospect, could see his stock rise as a result of the expanded playoff. Odunze’s size, athleticism, and ability to create separation will be key factors for him in playoff games, and the more high-profile matchups he can showcase his skill set in, the more likely he is to gain significant attention from NFL teams.

As wide receivers are often judged not only on their individual stats but also on their ability to perform when it matters most, the expanded CFP gives these playmakers ample opportunities to boost their stock with spectacular performances.

3. Defensive Players on Playoff-Contending Teams

Defensive players often get lost in the shuffle when it comes to NFL Draft talk, especially with offensive players—particularly quarterbacks and wide receivers—stealing the spotlight. However, a strong performance in big playoff games can elevate a defensive prospect’s stock, especially when they show up in crucial moments or against top-tier competition. With more teams involved in the playoff, there will be more opportunities for top defensive players to demonstrate their ability to dominate on the big stage.

One potential winner here is J.T. Tuimoloau, the edge rusher from Ohio State. Tuimoloau, a player already known for his freakish athleticism and ability to disrupt offenses, will have more chances to display his skills in front of NFL scouts during the expanded playoff. If he performs well and shows that he can be a game-changer in the postseason, his draft stock could rise considerably.

Another name to watch is Dallas Turner of Alabama. Known for his ability to rush the passer and stop the run, Turner is an intriguing NFL prospect with a high ceiling. Alabama’s yearly run in the playoff could provide him with multiple opportunities to showcase his talents on the big stage. A strong playoff performance could cement him as one of the top defensive prospects in the 2025 Draft.

With the increased visibility of more teams, defensive standouts will have an opportunity to distinguish themselves as potential first-round picks by excelling in critical games.

Losers: Players Who Are Hurt by the Expanded Playoff Format

1. Players on Teams That Miss the Playoff

For some top players, the expanded College Football Playoff could have the unintended consequence of diminishing their draft stock. Teams that fail to make the 12-team playoff may not have the same exposure in the later stages of the season, meaning their players miss out on crucial opportunities to showcase their talents. While individual performances in regular-season games still matter, the added national spotlight of playoff games could be the difference between a player being a top-five pick and falling into the second or third round.

For example, Caleb Williams, the Heisman-winning quarterback from USC, may see his stock impacted if his team fails to make the expanded playoff. Despite Williams being regarded as one of the top quarterback prospects, missing out on the postseason could prevent him from having additional opportunities to demonstrate his skills in high-pressure, high-visibility games.

Similarly, Brock Bowers, Georgia’s star tight end, could see a slight dip in his stock if Georgia fails to make the playoffs, missing out on the chance to showcase his dynamic skill set in a national playoff game. While Bowers is expected to be one of the top picks in 2025, missing out on additional high-profile games could prevent him from securing that No. 1 tight end spot that many expect him to hold.

2. Underperforming Players with Limited Exposure

Players who underperform in high-stakes playoff games may also see their draft stock drop significantly. While the added exposure of the expanded CFP provides a platform to boost a player’s draft stock, it can also have the opposite effect. A poor performance in a playoff game—especially one that is nationally televised—could leave a lasting impression on scouts and evaluators, negatively impacting a player’s stock heading into the NFL Draft.

For instance, a running back or wide receiver who struggles to gain yards or fails to make an impact in a key playoff game could see their draft stock fall as teams question their ability to produce when the pressure is on. Similarly, defensive players who fail to stop key offenses or struggle to make plays on the biggest stage could see their stock slip, as teams become wary of their ability to handle NFL-level competition.

3. Players with Injuries in the Playoffs

Injuries are always a concern in football, but the risk of injury increases during high-stakes playoff games. The expanded playoff format will place more games on the schedule, and for some players, the extra wear and tear could result in injuries that derail their draft stock. For example, a player like Marvin Harrison Jr., who is expected to be a top pick in 2025, could see his stock drop if he suffers an injury in a playoff game that prevents him from fully participating in the NFL Combine or showcasing his skills during team workouts. NFL scouts are highly focused on a player’s physical health leading into the draft, and an injury in a playoff game could cause a red flag.