What are Alabama and Auburn’s chances of winning the 2025–26 CFP national championship?

The College Football Playoff (CFP) has become the ultimate stage for college football teams to showcase their abilities, with the national championship up for grabs every season. As the 2025-2026 season approaches, both Alabama and Auburn, two of the most storied programs in the SEC, find themselves at critical junctures in their respective programs. Alabama, under legendary head coach Nick Saban, has consistently remained in the championship conversation for years, while Auburn, under new leadership, is looking to rebuild and compete for a title in the near future.

In this article, we will examine the chances of both Alabama and Auburn winning the 2025-2026 CFP national championship. We will look at factors such as team composition, coaching, recruiting, historical success, and the competitive landscape of college football as a whole to assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams.

Alabama Crimson Tide: A Legacy of Success

1. Nick Saban’s Continued Dominance

Alabama’s chances of winning the 2025-26 CFP national championship are undoubtedly enhanced by the presence of Nick Saban, one of the most successful and respected head coaches in college football history. Since Saban took over the program in 2007, Alabama has won six national championships, and they have consistently been one of the most dominant programs in the country. Saban’s ability to recruit elite talent, develop players, and maintain a winning culture makes Alabama one of the top contenders for the national title every year.

In 2025, Saban will likely still be at the helm, continuing to utilize his coaching expertise to mold Alabama into a championship-caliber team. While Saban is in his 70s, his influence on the program remains as strong as ever, and Alabama will continue to benefit from his leadership. As long as Saban is the head coach, Alabama will always be a team to watch in the College Football Playoff race.

2. Quarterback Situation and Offensive Development

One of the primary factors that will determine Alabama’s chances of winning the 2025-26 CFP national championship is the quarterback position. After the departure of Heisman winner Bryce Young to the NFL, Alabama has had to rely on quarterbacks such as Jalen Milroe and Ty Simpson, who have shown potential but have yet to fully realize their potential as elite quarterbacks.

Jalen Milroe, a dual-threat quarterback, has flashed his athleticism and arm strength but has struggled with consistency at times. Ty Simpson, on the other hand, is a former five-star recruit who has the tools to be an elite passer but still needs time to develop. Alabama’s success in the 2025-26 season will largely depend on whether Milroe or Simpson can emerge as the next great Alabama quarterback. If either player can take the reins and perform at a high level, Alabama’s chances of winning the national championship increase significantly.

Additionally, the Alabama offense has always been well-coached and capable of putting up big numbers. The team’s offensive line, wide receivers, and running backs are consistently among the best in the nation. With a balanced offensive attack and a proven system, Alabama will remain a formidable force on that side of the ball.

3. Defensive Powerhouses and Recruiting

On the defensive side, Alabama has consistently been one of the best programs in the country, and the 2025 defense should be no exception. Under Saban’s guidance, Alabama has produced numerous NFL-caliber defensive players, and their recruitment of defensive talent remains elite.

Alabama’s defensive front will be one of the most formidable in college football, with pass rushers and interior linemen that can disrupt opposing offenses. The secondary, which has been a strength of the program for years, should also remain a key asset for the team. Alabama’s ability to recruit elite talent across the defense will be critical in their pursuit of another national title.

With an elite defense, a talented offense, and a legendary head coach, Alabama’s chances of winning the 2025-26 CFP national championship remain high. If their quarterback situation stabilizes and the team stays healthy, Alabama will be one of the favorites to win the national title.

4. Competition in the SEC and National Landscape

One of the challenges Alabama faces in its quest for the 2025-26 national championship is the competitive nature of the SEC. Teams like Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee are expected to remain strong contenders, and the SEC Championship Game will be a crucial hurdle for Alabama to clear in order to make it to the playoff. Additionally, the rise of other top programs like Ohio State, Michigan, and Clemson further complicates Alabama’s path to the championship.

Despite this stiff competition, Alabama’s historical success, elite talent, and coaching stability give them a strong chance to make a run at the 2025-26 CFP national championship.

Auburn Tigers: A New Era Under Hugh Freeze

1. Hugh Freeze’s Impact and Rebuilding Process

Auburn is entering a new era under head coach Hugh Freeze, who took over the program in 2023. Freeze, known for his offensive prowess and ability to turn around struggling programs, will look to restore Auburn to its former glory and make the Tigers a legitimate contender in the SEC and beyond. Freeze’s reputation as a quarterback whisperer and his success in developing explosive offenses at previous stops make him an intriguing hire for Auburn.

While it’s unlikely that Auburn will be a national title contender in the immediate future, Freeze’s presence and vision for the program could lead to significant progress in the next few seasons. Auburn’s recruiting efforts have already taken a step forward under Freeze, and as he builds the program and adds more talent, Auburn’s chances of competing for a national championship will improve. However, Auburn will need to rebuild its roster and ensure that they have the depth and talent to compete with the elite teams in the SEC and the country.

2. Quarterback and Offensive Development

Like Alabama, Auburn’s quarterback situation will play a pivotal role in their chances of winning the 2025-26 national championship. Auburn has struggled with quarterback stability in recent years, and Freeze will need to find a reliable signal-caller to lead the team to success. The Tigers are likely to rely on a combination of transfers and recruits to address this position.

Auburn’s offense, under Freeze, is expected to be more dynamic and balanced than it has been in recent years. Freeze’s offensive philosophy should improve Auburn’s ability to score points and execute in the passing game. If Auburn can develop a competent quarterback and surround him with playmakers, their offense could be dangerous and capable of keeping up with some of the top teams in the country.

However, the development of the quarterback position and the overall consistency of the offense will be key to Auburn’s success. If Freeze can quickly establish a high-functioning offense, Auburn will have the chance to become more competitive in the SEC and in the national landscape.

3. Defensive Potential

Auburn has traditionally been known for its strong defense, and that should remain a strength under Hugh Freeze. The Tigers have a solid defensive foundation, with strong pass rushers, solid linebackers, and a capable secondary. While Auburn’s defense may not be as elite as Alabama’s, it should still be competitive enough to give them a chance in big games.

To compete for a national championship, Auburn’s defense will need to play at a consistently high level. Freeze will likely lean on his defensive coordinators to keep the Tigers competitive in the SEC, where high-scoring offenses are common. A strong defense, combined with an efficient offense, could make Auburn a dangerous team in the 2025-26 season.

4. Challenging SEC Landscape and National Expectations

Auburn faces a significantly tougher path to the CFP than Alabama, particularly due to the dominance of teams like Alabama, Georgia, and LSU in the SEC. The Tigers will need to not only beat their rivals but also secure key wins in the regular season and potential SEC Championship Game in order to have a shot at the CFP. Even if Auburn can improve its team under Freeze, it will be a significant challenge to outpace the top programs in the SEC and the rest of the nation.

Given the competitive nature of the SEC and the strength of other college football programs, Auburn’s chances of winning the 2025-26 CFP national championship are lower than Alabama’s. However, if Freeze can establish a winning culture and build a competitive team, Auburn could emerge as a strong contender in the years to come.