Where the Tennessee Vols are expected to finish in the 2024 college football season’s final AP Top 25 poll

As the 2024 college football season draws to a close, one of the most anticipated questions is where the Tennessee Volunteers (Vols) will land in the final AP Top 25 poll. This is a natural question to ask for a team that has built a reputation for explosive offensive play, solid recruiting, and significant historical success. To forecast the Vols’ position in the final rankings, we need to analyze their performance throughout the season, the state of their roster, and the competitive landscape of college football as a whole.

Tennessee’s 2024 Season Overview

The Tennessee Volunteers entered the 2024 season with high expectations after a strong showing in 2023, when they made significant strides under head coach Josh Heupel. The offense, spearheaded by quarterback Joe Milton, impressed many with its high-powered attack, which ranked among the best in the country. With Heupel’s offensive system fully integrated and a top-tier recruiting class from recent years, Tennessee had the pieces to challenge the top teams in the Southeastern Conference (SEC) and beyond.

Key Players and Standouts

The Vols’ success was always going to hinge on a few key players, particularly at the quarterback position. Joe Milton, despite his inconsistency at times in 2023, showed flashes of brilliance and has been regarded as one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks in the country. By the 2024 season, Milton’s development was expected to be one of the determining factors in Tennessee’s success. With a cannon arm, mobility, and experience, Milton had all the tools to lead the Vols to a strong finish.

Another key player for Tennessee’s offense was running back Dylan Sampson, who had emerged as a potential star after impressive performances in 2023. Along with a stable of talented wide receivers, including Bru McCoy and Squirrel White, Tennessee had the weapons to put up points against nearly any team in the country. The Vols’ offensive line, which had been a work in progress in the past, showed improvement in 2024, offering better protection for Milton and creating lanes for Sampson and the running backs.

On the defensive side of the ball, Tennessee was focused on improving its consistency. While the Vols had talent on defense, particularly in the secondary and at linebacker, their success would depend on the ability to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks and limit big plays. The defensive line was a bit of a question mark heading into the season, but the return of experienced players and some highly touted newcomers helped improve the defense’s ability to slow down high-scoring offenses.

The SEC and National Landscape

To understand where the Vols are likely to land in the final AP Top 25, we must also consider the broader college football landscape. The Southeastern Conference, known for its dominance in college football, remained as competitive as ever. Teams like Alabama, Georgia, and LSU continued to be powerhouses, and the rise of teams such as Ole Miss and Missouri presented further challenges for Tennessee’s positioning.

The SEC East, in particular, was always going to be a tough battleground. Georgia, reigning national champions, remained the team to beat in the division, with a roster full of elite talent. The Vols would need to be nearly perfect in their division games, including their matchup with Georgia, in order to position themselves for a top-tier ranking.

Moreover, Tennessee would also face tough challenges from out-of-conference opponents, including matchups with teams from the ACC and other Power Five conferences. How they fared against these teams would impact their standing, as non-conference wins or losses carry weight in the rankings, especially if the Vols were in contention for a playoff spot.

The Road to the Top 25

Given the Vols’ talent, potential, and Heupel’s offensive system, Tennessee had a reasonable path to a Top 25 finish in the AP Poll. However, several factors would play into how high they could land in the final poll.

1. Strength of Schedule: Tennessee’s performance against SEC opponents, especially in marquee games against Georgia, Alabama, and LSU, would significantly impact its final ranking. If the Vols were able to pull off an upset or two in these high-stakes matchups, it would bolster their standing.
2. Losses and Close Games: College football rankings are heavily influenced by losses. While the Vols had the potential to win big games, they also had to avoid bad losses against teams they were favored to beat. Close losses against highly-ranked teams, particularly in competitive SEC matchups, would not necessarily hurt them too badly in terms of ranking but could impact their playoff hopes.
3. Offensive Performance: The Vols’ offensive style, predicated on fast-paced, high-scoring plays, would need to be consistent and efficient throughout the season. If Tennessee’s offense were able to light up the scoreboard, particularly in key games, it could make a case for a higher ranking. Conversely, struggles on offense, especially in tough matchups, would drag down the Vols’ ranking.
4. Defensive Improvements: Tennessee’s defense, while talented, had room for improvement. If the defense made significant strides under defensive coordinator Tim Banks, it would greatly improve the team’s overall competitiveness and help Tennessee secure wins against ranked opponents. A high-ranking finish for the Vols would likely require a stronger defensive showing than in past years.
5. National Perception: The AP Poll is not only about wins and losses but also the perception of a team’s ability to contend for the national title. If Tennessee could prove itself to be a legitimate contender, especially in close games against elite teams, voters would take notice and elevate the Vols accordingly.

Projected Final Ranking

By the time the 2024 season reached its final stages, Tennessee had likely found itself in a position where a New Year’s Six bowl game was within reach. The Vols’ performance would have them hovering around the 15-20 range in the AP Poll, with the possibility of finishing higher depending on how their season ended. In this scenario, Tennessee would likely land between No. 15 and No. 20, with a solid 9-3 or 10-2 record depending on how they performed in their final regular season games and bowl appearances.

This projection assumes that Tennessee would have had at least one significant win over a ranked opponent, but also suffered a couple of losses to higher-ranked teams like Georgia or Alabama. Despite these losses, the Vols’ high-scoring offense and improved defense would give them enough momentum to finish the season ranked within the Top 20, if not slightly higher. A win in a prominent bowl game could potentially push Tennessee up to the low teens in the rankings.

A Path to Higher Rankings

While a finish between No. 15 and No. 20 in the final AP Poll is a reasonable projection, it’s important to note that Tennessee’s ranking could rise significantly if the team overachieved in big moments. For example, if Tennessee were to upset Georgia or Alabama, it could vault up to a spot in the Top 10, perhaps even breaking into the Top 5 if the season concluded with a conference championship appearance.

On the flip side, a disappointing finish to the season—such as a loss in a bowl game or multiple defeats to rivals—could drop the Vols out of the Top 25 entirely, or at least cause them to fall into the 20s. However, given their talent and coaching staff, Tennessee would be a team that voters would be hesitant to overlook.