Who will miss Ohio State vs. Notre Dame in the 2025 CFP National Championship?

The 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship is shaping up to be one of the most highly anticipated games in recent memory. With powerhouse teams like Ohio State and Notre Dame set to square off, fans and analysts alike are already speculating about which teams will make it to the title game. Both programs have established themselves as perennial contenders, boasting elite recruiting classes, historic legacies, and championship aspirations.

However, despite the hype surrounding the potential clash between the Buckeyes and the Fighting Irish, not every team in the country will make the cut for the College Football Playoff (CFP) in 2025. With only four spots available in the playoff, some deserving programs will undoubtedly be left on the outside looking in. This raises the question: Who will miss out on a chance to compete for the national championship when Ohio State and Notre Dame make their runs?

In this article, we’ll examine some of the top teams that could be on the bubble for a spot in the 2025 CFP, exploring their chances of securing a playoff berth and the reasons they may fall short in their pursuit of the title. The landscape of college football is constantly evolving, and the race for playoff spots is often more complex than it initially seems. As teams battle it out over the course of the 2025 season, we will highlight a few programs with the potential to miss out on the chance to compete for the ultimate prize.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

Why They Might Miss the CFP:

As one of the most successful programs in college football history, Alabama is always in the mix for a CFP berth. However, in 2025, the Crimson Tide may face some challenges that could prevent them from securing a spot in the playoff.

First and foremost, Alabama’s quarterback situation could be a significant obstacle. With Jalen Milroe or a new signal-caller stepping in for the departing Bryce Young, there will be uncertainty under center. While Milroe has shown flashes of potential, he’ll need to prove he can lead the team with consistency, particularly in big games against SEC opponents. Additionally, Alabama’s receiving corps, though talented, might not have the same depth and star power as in years past, which could hinder their offensive output.

Furthermore, Alabama is part of the SEC, arguably the toughest conference in college football. With fierce competition from teams like Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee, Alabama will likely face a tough path to the SEC Championship Game, where they would need to secure a win to strengthen their playoff chances. A couple of early-season losses in the ultra-competitive SEC could be enough to keep Alabama from reaching the CFP, especially if other top teams remain undefeated or only suffer one loss.

Final Thoughts:

While Alabama is always a contender, the quarterback uncertainty and tough competition within the SEC may ultimately keep them from securing a playoff spot in 2025.

2. Michigan Wolverines

Why They Might Miss the CFP:

Michigan enters the 2025 season with high expectations after back-to-back Big Ten titles, but their path to the CFP will not be an easy one. The Wolverines have established themselves as one of the top programs in college football, but questions around quarterback play, offensive line performance, and their ability to handle pressure in high-stakes games could prevent them from making a return trip to the playoff.

While Michigan has a strong defense and an effective run game, their passing attack has often been inconsistent. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy has shown flashes of brilliance, but he has also struggled at times with turnovers and accuracy. In big games, where every possession matters, McCarthy will need to prove that he can handle pressure and deliver in clutch situations. If the Wolverines cannot find a reliable passing game, they could struggle against elite teams like Ohio State, Penn State, or others that have high-powered offenses.

Additionally, Michigan faces a tough schedule in 2025, with Ohio State on the docket and other challenging matchups against Big Ten foes like Penn State and Wisconsin. If Michigan were to drop one or two of these games, especially if they lose the Big Ten Championship Game to Ohio State, their playoff chances would diminish significantly. The Big Ten is increasingly competitive, and while Michigan has built a solid foundation, they may not be able to secure one of the four coveted playoff spots this season.

Final Thoughts:

Michigan’s quarterback play and difficult schedule may ultimately prevent them from making it to the 2025 CFP, even with their strong defense and running game.

3. Florida State Seminoles

Why They Might Miss the CFP:

Florida State is a program on the rise, led by head coach Mike Norvell and a talented roster that has steadily improved in recent years. The Seminoles have a legitimate shot at competing for an ACC title in 2025, but their playoff hopes could be derailed by a few factors.

While Florida State has made strides in recruiting and player development, they will still face tough competition in the ACC, particularly from teams like Clemson, North Carolina, and NC State. While Florida State has the talent to challenge for the conference title, they will need to navigate a difficult regular season without suffering a loss to any of these teams. A slip-up against a team from the ACC’s middle tier, or an early-season upset, could quickly end their CFP aspirations.

Moreover, the quarterback situation at Florida State remains a bit uncertain. While Jordan Travis is a talented dual-threat quarterback, he’s had injuries in the past, and Florida State will need him to stay healthy and perform at a high level all season long. If Travis were to get injured or struggle with consistency, Florida State’s offense could stall, especially against elite defenses from teams like Clemson.

Final Thoughts:

Florida State is a rising program, but their path to the CFP is uncertain. With tough competition in the ACC and quarterback health being a potential issue, the Seminoles could fall just short in 2025.

4. USC Trojans

Why They Might Miss the CFP:

USC has been one of the most improved programs in recent years, particularly with quarterback Caleb Williams leading the charge. Williams, the 2024 Heisman Trophy winner, gives USC a dynamic offensive weapon, and the Trojans are one of the most potent teams in college football. However, despite their offensive firepower, there are several reasons why USC may fall short of the 2025 CFP.

First, USC’s defense remains a major question mark. While the Trojans have recruited well on that side of the ball, they’ve struggled to consistently stop high-powered offenses. In the Pac-12, where offenses often thrive, USC will need to improve their defense to compete with the best teams in the country. If their defense continues to allow big plays and fail to get stops in key moments, USC could drop games to high-scoring teams like Oregon, Washington, or Utah, which would hinder their playoff chances.

Additionally, conference strength could play a role in USC’s playoff bid. The Pac-12 is a competitive conference, but it lacks the overall depth and consistency of the SEC or Big Ten. While USC could go undefeated in the regular season, a loss to a Pac-12 contender or a blowout in the conference championship could hurt their playoff standing, particularly if other conferences send multiple teams with more impressive resumes.

Final Thoughts:

Despite Caleb Williams’ brilliance and their offensive strength, USC’s defensive vulnerabilities and potential losses in the competitive Pac-12 may keep them from securing a playoff spot.

5. Washington Huskies

Why They Might Miss the CFP:

Washington enters the 2025 season as one of the top teams in the Pac-12, with a dynamic quarterback in Michael Penix Jr., and an offense that has proven to be potent. The Huskies are a dark horse team with serious playoff aspirations, but their path to the College Football Playoff is fraught with challenges.

As with USC, Washington’s defense could be a major obstacle. While they have some talented defensive players, they are not as consistently strong on that side of the ball as other top playoff teams. The Pac-12 is home to several high-powered offenses, and Washington will need to step up defensively to avoid getting into shootouts that could hurt their playoff standing. Furthermore, Penix Jr. will need to remain healthy, as his success has been critical to Washington’s offensive success.

The Pac-12’s depth will be another factor. Washington could drop a game against a tough Pac-12 opponent, and that loss may not be viewed as highly as a one-loss season in the SEC or Big Ten. This, along with the lack of a dominant defensive unit, could hurt Washington’s playoff chances, even if they finish the regular season with only one or two losses.

Final Thoughts:

Washington’s offense and quarterback play are impressive, but their defensive struggles and the competitive nature of the Pac-12 could keep them from earning a spot in the 2025 CFP.