Reviewing our 2024 Top 25 college football projections, which were released too early. There were successes and failures.

Last January, just before Nick Saban’s retirement from Alabama and Michigan’s victory over Washington for the national championship, USA TODAY Sports revealed its way-too-early Top 25 for the 2024 season.

The Crimson Tide was placed No. 2 in our early outlook because of this. Why would we choose to oppose the best college football coach in history? Regarding the reigning national champions, starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy was just a few days away from declaring for the NFL draft, and former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh had not yet formally left for the Los Angeles Chargers. In our estimate, we placed the Wolverines at number three, which also made sense.

For those two misses, at least we have an explanation. Looking back at our list from too early reveals some serious mistakes in judgment, ranging from the general undervaluation of the Big Ten to excessive optimism in teams like LSU, Oklahoma, and Virginia Tech.

After Monday night’s championship game between Notre Dame and Ohio State, our way-too-early Top 25 for the 2025 season will be announced. Before we look ahead, let’s take a look at last year’s list to see which teams we got right, which went wrong, and which went very, very wrong: Great job! No. 4 Texas (13-3) This team came in second in the SEC, won two College Football Playoff games, and lost to the Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl. Although the Longhorns made the most of a relatively easy schedule, they met expectations by qualifying for the national semifinals for the second consecutive year.

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No. 11 Clemson (10-4) Clemson won the ACC, as we predicted, before losing to Texas in the opening round of the playoff. It wasn’t a particularly pretty season for the Tigers. They were blown out by Georgia in the opener and lost convincingly Louisville at home. But they managed to get into the conference title game when Miami fell to Syracuse in Week 14 and took advantage by beating SMU.

Memphis, No. 23 (11-2)
After finishing the season with victories against Tulane and West Virginia, Memphis will finish in this range in the Coaches Poll even though they weren’t the best team in the Group of Five (we didn’t have Boise State listed).

To be honest, it’s not that horrible, Georgia No. 1 (11-3)
Alright, so Georgia lost to Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl to end the season without winning a playoff game or even reclaiming the national championship. Although the Bulldogs defeated Texas twice en route to winning the SEC, they may have gone further in the playoffs if starting quarterback Carson Beck hadn’t had a season-ending injury in the conference title game.

No. 6 Notre Dame (14-1*) We were largely on the mark with the Fighting Irish, writing that the offseason additions of offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock and quarterback Riley Leonard “make the Fighting Irish one of the leading contenders for the playoff.” They had an awful loss to Northern Illinois but haven’t lost since and are one win from their first title since 1988.

Oregon No. 7 (13-1)
The good news is that Michigan was selected first in the Big Ten, and Oregon was selected second. The Ducks were the Bowl Subdivision’s only undefeated team at the end of the regular season. The bad news is that we significantly underestimated the strength of the Ducks and the league in 2024 by selecting the ultimate Big Ten champion at No. 7.

Tennessee, No. 12 (10-3)
In terms of the Volunteers’ ultimate rating, this is almost correct. However, Tennessee was rated seventh in the SEC by our Top 25, making it a miss. The Volunteers failed to leave an impression against Ohio State, but they defeated Alabama and advanced to the playoffs.

Missouri No. 14 (10-3)
We were a tad too optimistic about Missouri. The Music City Bowl victory against Iowa was the Tigers’ sole victory over a Power Four team with more than seven victories. They reached double-digit victories by surviving close home games against Vanderbilt, Auburn, and Oklahoma.

Near, but still not quite right
Mississippi No. 5 (10-3)
Unbelievable defeats to Florida and Kentucky lost the Rebels a postseason berth and the opportunity to place in the top five for the first time in more than 60 years. But as everything was falling into place, we knew that this might have been the SEC’s finest squad. Unfortunately, that didn’t occur frequently enough.

Ohio State, ranked ninth (14-2*)
Because of our general miscalculation with the Big Ten, Penn State and the Buckeyes were greatly discounted. However, Ohio State had a strong run to Monday’s title game after finishing the regular season ranked seventh in the Coaches Poll.

Penn State, No. 15 (13-3)
The Nittany Lions missed this by almost ten spots. With concerns about the offensive line’s health and whether Drew Allar would advance under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, we wrote, “If all goes right, Penn State could win the Big Ten or at least land an at-large playoff bid.”

Iowa No. 24 (8-5)
After losing to Missouri in the bowl, Iowa will not place in the Top 25. However, the Hawkeyes came very close to defending this ranking and even making it into the at-large playoff picture after losing to UCLA by a field goal and Iowa State by a point.

We have justifications.
Second Alabama (9-4)
Under new coach Kalen DeBoer, Alabama fell in the SEC rankings. Losses against Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl and Vanderbilt and Oklahoma in the regular season characterized the Crimson Tide’s season.

Michigan, No. 3 (8-5)
Under new coach Sherrone Moore, Michigan’s chances of a repeat were dashed after the title game when Harbaugh, McCarthy, and numerous other well-known contributors left. However, the Wolverines gained some momentum and had a chance to finish in the Top 25 after closing with victories against Ohio State and the Tide.

Washington, No. 17 (6-7)
We ought to have been far more pessimistic about Washington’s prospects of succeeding as new Big Ten members given the talent exodus following the defeat to Michigan. To be fair, DeBoer was anticipated to rejoin the Huskies in 2024. “Given his history, it appears highly improbable that Washington will disappear from the national map,” we said.

22nd Kansas (5–7)
Kansas won three straight games against ranked opponents in November and had five single-digit defeats, making them one of nine teams in our early Top 25 to end the season with a losing record. To put it another way, last January, the Jayhawks came very close to being the team we anticipated.