Cotton Bowl forecasts: Will Texas or Ohio State make it to the College Football Playoffs?

Cotton Bowl Forecasts: Will Texas or Ohio State Make It to the College Football Playoffs?

As the 2024 college football season draws to a close, the Cotton Bowl Classic stands as one of the key postseason games with significant playoff implications. With both Texas and Ohio State vying for a potential spot in the College Football Playoffs (CFP), the outcome of this prestigious bowl game could dramatically shape the national championship picture. In this article, we’ll take a deep dive into both teams’ season performances, analyze their strengths and weaknesses, and forecast whether either of them will make the cut for the CFP.

The Cotton Bowl: A Crucial Meeting

The Cotton Bowl Classic, traditionally one of the most exciting postseason matchups in college football, features a battle between two of the sport’s most storied programs. This year, Texas and Ohio State will square off in a highly anticipated showdown that holds significant ramifications for the College Football Playoff race.

Both programs are no strangers to the CFP conversation, and each has an argument to be included in the final four teams that will battle for the national championship. Texas, as a powerhouse in the Big 12, has showcased impressive growth under head coach Steve Sarkisian. Ohio State, a perennial Big Ten juggernaut, has been a consistent fixture in the Playoff under head coach Ryan Day. With the 2024 season nearing its end, both teams find themselves at pivotal points in their respective campaigns.

A win in the Cotton Bowl will not only bolster the résumé of the victor but also offer a final statement to the College Football Playoff selection committee. Given that this game falls right before the CFP rankings are finalized, the Cotton Bowl could play a pivotal role in determining which team will earn a coveted spot in the playoff bracket.

Texas: A Promising Season and a Bright Future

Texas football, long a program in search of consistency, has made significant strides in the 2024 season. Under Sarkisian, the Longhorns have found a rhythm offensively, with standout performances from quarterback Quinn Ewers and a dynamic running game led by Bijan Robinson’s successor, Jonathon Brooks.

Key Strengths:

1. Explosive Offense
   One of the defining characteristics of the 2024 Texas team is its offensive explosiveness. Ewers, in his second year as the starting quarterback, has developed into one of the premier passers in the nation. His ability to stretch the field with deep passes and his improved decision-making have been crucial for the Longhorns’ success. Complementing his play has been the emergence of the running back duo of Jonathon Brooks and Keilan Robinson, who have provided balance to the attack.
2. Balanced Defense
   Defensively, Texas has been solid, with defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski leading a unit that has held opposing offenses in check. While not as dominant as some of the top defenses in the nation, the Longhorns have been strong in key moments, with safety Jerrin Thompson and linebacker Jaylan Ford emerging as stars.
3. Quality Wins
   Throughout the 2024 campaign, Texas has delivered impressive victories, including wins over Kansas State, Baylor, and a thrilling victory against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. These victories have placed the Longhorns in the conversation for the playoff, as they are one of the few teams that has demonstrated both offensive and defensive balance.

Challenges:

1. Inconsistent Play on the Road
   One area where Texas has faltered has been in its road performances. Though the Longhorns have shown they can handle pressure at home, they’ve struggled in hostile environments. Losses on the road, including a tight defeat to Kansas and a crushing setback against Texas Tech, have highlighted the challenges Texas faces away from Austin. These inconsistencies could hurt the Longhorns’ playoff hopes, as the selection committee tends to reward teams that demonstrate consistent success across the board.
2. Strength of Schedule Concerns
   Another potential hurdle for Texas is the overall strength of the Big 12 in 2024. While the conference is competitive, it’s not considered to be at the same level as the SEC or Big Ten. Some may argue that Texas’ path to the College Football Playoff has been easier than other contenders, potentially hindering its case when compared to teams from more competitive conferences.

Ohio State: A Perennial Playoff Contender

Ohio State, under Ryan Day, has been a perennial College Football Playoff contender since the CFP’s inception. The Buckeyes have routinely been at the top of the Big Ten, and 2024 was no different. With a high-powered offense and a stout defense, Ohio State entered the season as one of the most well-rounded teams in the country.

Key Strengths:

1. Dynamic Quarterback Play
   Kyle McCord has been a revelation at quarterback for Ohio State in 2024. Though not yet the same level of standout performer as previous OSU quarterbacks like Justin Fields or Dwayne Haskins, McCord has shown tremendous growth, particularly in games against top competition. His chemistry with wide receivers like Marvin Harrison Jr. has been evident, and his ability to move the ball downfield in critical moments has been a key component of the Buckeyes’ success.
2. Offensive Firepower
   Ohio State’s offense, under offensive coordinator Brian Hartline, has been one of the most potent units in college football. The Buckeyes feature one of the best receiving corps in the nation, highlighted by Marvin Harrison Jr. — a future NFL first-round pick. In addition to the wideouts, running back Miyan Williams has provided the necessary ground game to complement the aerial attack.
3. Elite Defense
   Ohio State has also been stellar on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has transformed the Buckeyes’ defense into one of the most aggressive and effective units in the country. The pass rush, led by JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, has been relentless, while the secondary has done an excellent job of locking down opposing receivers.

Challenges:

1. Tougher Conference Schedule
   Unlike Texas, Ohio State plays in the Big Ten, which many consider the toughest conference in college football. Ohio State’s loss to Michigan was a massive blow to its playoff hopes, especially since the Buckeyes were unable to capitalize on a strong season to secure an automatic bid to the Big Ten Championship. The Wolverines have been Ohio State’s biggest obstacle in recent years, and that loss leaves the Buckeyes with a tough road to the CFP, despite their overall strength.
2. Inconsistent Play Against Top Teams
   While Ohio State’s defense has been strong all year, its offense has been more inconsistent against top-tier defenses. In the loss to Michigan, Ohio State struggled to maintain offensive rhythm, failing to find the end zone for significant stretches of the game. If Ohio State can’t find a way to perform at its peak in these critical matchups, the selection committee may overlook them in favor of teams with more impressive, consistent victories.

Cotton Bowl Outcome: Who Has the Edge?

When looking at the Cotton Bowl Classic between Texas and Ohio State, there are several factors to consider. Both teams have been exceptional in 2024, but their paths to the playoff picture are not without significant obstacles.

1. Offensive Efficiency
   Texas’ offensive balance between Quinn Ewers’ passing game and the running back duo of Brooks and Robinson will be tested against the high-flying attack of Ohio State. The Buckeyes’ defense, led by Tuimoloau and Sawyer, could make it difficult for the Longhorns to move the ball consistently. However, Texas’ ability to establish the run early could limit Ohio State’s offensive possessions, putting pressure on McCord and his weapons to score.
2. Defensive Matchups
   Ohio State’s defensive line is one of the best in the nation, but Texas’ offensive line has been solid throughout the season, especially in games where they’ve faced elite pass rushers. If Texas’ offensive line can hold up and give Ewers time to throw, the Longhorns might be able to capitalize on Ohio State’s relatively soft secondary. However, the Buckeyes’ speed and athleticism on defense may give them the edge in pass coverage.
3. Special Teams and Coaching
   Both teams are well-coached, with Sarkisian and Day each possessing a wealth of experience in major bowl games. The game will likely come down to which team executes more efficiently in all three phases. The Cotton Bowl will feature elite players, but it’s the intangibles — like special teams plays and game management — that will ultimately decide who advances to the College Football Playoff.