College Football Playoff: Ohio State vs. Texas: forecast, current odds, professional selections, quarterback matchup, and statistics

Despite their humbling flag-planting loss to their bitter rivals, Michigan, Ohio State (11-2) remained focused on their ultimate objective of capturing the National Championship. In their 42-17 first-round triumph, they shut down Tennessee’s passing attack (14-of-31, 104 yards, 0-to-0 ratio), making it impossible for the Vols to overcome an early 21-0 first-quarter deficit. Before the Ducks ever scored a point, OSU opened the game with five consecutive explosive 30-yard or more touchdowns, while DC Jim Knowles restricted Oregon to -23 running yards on 28 carries.

On both sides of the ball, OSU’s dominant offense is in the top ten in terms of success rate, EPA/play, and marginal efficiency. The Ohio State O-line’s ability to deal with extra rushers, which ranks 78th with a 9.2% blitz down sack rate, and its somewhat increased 10.2% blown run block rate, which ranks 94th nationally, are the team’s primary offensive weaknesses.
OSU’s defense is excellent; according to SP+, it ranks #1 overall in the FBS. With only 9.3% of passes going 20 yards or more downfield, their secondary is being hit by the fifth-fewest deep passes in the nation. Teams are forced to rely on quick, organized throws because of OSU’s outstanding defensive line, which ranks second in the NCAA with a stunning 9.8% sack rate and fifth with a 43.4% pressure rate. The Buckeyes rank third overall in EPA/dropback despite allowing a slightly higher 60.1% completion rate (63rd), so the brief yardage checkdowns and screens haven’t damaged them.

Texas (13-2) is in the postseason for the first time since 2009, according to head coach Steve Sarkisian. Despite dominating the bulk of their 22nd-ranked schedule, the Longhorns were unable to avenge their only defeat to Georgia in the SEC Championship, which was a close 22-19 decision.

In the first round of the CFP Playoffs, Texas rushed for 292 yards and 6.1 yards per carry against an overmatched Clemson defense, cruising to a 38-24 victory. The Quarterfinals vs Arizona State were a far more competitive double-overtime matchup, with a late interception and non-targeting call on the same play giving Texas a late-game advantage that has ASU supporters up in arms. The Longhorns won 39-31 despite being outgained 510-to-375 by the Sun Devils, though some of the deficit can be accounted by game script, since Texas led 17-3 at halftime.

Offensively, the Longhorns rank tenth in SP+, thirteenth in rushing success, and third in explosive play rate (9.6%). UT also boasts a top-tier secondary, ranking first in yards per dropback allowed (4.1) and third in interception rate (5.2%). They’re also no pushovers in run defense, ranking eighth in EPA/rush, and their pass rush is 8.8% effective (sixth in FBS).

Football247 offers all of the most up-to-date information and analysis, including how to watch the game, BetMGM odds, player news and updates, and, of course, our expert predictions and best bets.

Learn how to watch the 2025 College Football Playoff Semi-Final between Texas and Ohio State. Date: Wednesday, January 10, 2025. Time: 4:30 PM (EST) AT&T Stadium is located in Arlington, Texas. TV/Streaming: ESPN

BetMGM provides game odds for the 2025 College Football Playoff Semi-Final between Texas and Ohio State.

Moneyline: Ohio State Buckeyes (-225); Texas Longhorns (+185)
Spread: Buckeyes -5.5 Over/Under: 53.5 pts.
The spread opened Ohio State at -6/6.5, well under the crucial figure of -7 following their thrashing of Oregon. BetMGM offers the greatest odds on Texas pulling off an upset at +185, while BOL has the best line on OSU at -210. In early trading, the game total fluctuated between 53.5 and 55.

Expert choices and predictions for Ohio State vs. Texas.
NBC Sports Bet Best bet.
According to NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton), Ohio State has improved significantly in the CFP Playoffs, defeating Tennessee and Oregon by a total score of 83-38. Texas is coming off a frightening 39-31 double-overtime victory over ASU, in which they surged out to a 17-3 halftime lead before collapsing in the second half. I have a difficult time picking against the Buckeyes given the relentless pressure they’ve been receiving while bringing only four rushers. I’m betting on the Buckeyes with -6/6.5 odds.

Quarterback matchup for 2025 College Football Playoff Semi-Final: Texas vs. Ohio State

Texas: The Longhorns have one of the most prolific quarterback rooms in the NCAA, with starter Quinn Ewers and backup Arch Manning. Ewers has completed 66.5% of his throws, totaling 3,189 yards with a 7.9 YPA and 29-to-11 ratio. Despite the solid results, his PFF passing score of 73.6 ranks 51st among 94 qualifying FBS signal callers, a significant drop from his 85.6 passing mark in 2023. Ewers has a noticeably poor 7.8 air yards per target, ranking 82nd out of 94 quarterbacks. HC Sarkisian has been fairly conservative with his play calling given that he has a certifiably elite defense to rely on, with the Longhorns completing 35.1% of their throws at or behind the line of scrimmage. His 48.6 PFF pressure grade ranks 52nd among 89 qualifiers, thus Ohio State’s front four will be expected to apply the heat.

Will Howard directed the Kansas State offense for his first four years of college before switching to Ohio State this offseason. The former Wildcat now leads OSU’s powerhouse attack, which defeats opponents by an average of 26.3 points per game, the nation’s greatest win differential. He’s completing a surgical 72.6% of his throws (2nd in FBS) and is collaborating with Emeka Egbuka and generational freshman Jeremiah Smith, both of whom are projected first-round NFL draft wideouts. The Buckeyes’ ruthlessly effective pass attack ranks third in success rate (53.4%) and seventh in yards per dropback (8.3) despite throwing only 10.3% of their throws 20 yards or more downfield (121st). Howard’s 84th percentile passing grade ranks 11th among power four signal callers and is the greatest mark of his five-year career, surpassing his previous high of 72.7.