Football prediction for Georgia vs. Notre Dame: What the analytics indicate

On New Year’s Day, Georgia and Notre Dame will play each other in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals at the Sugar Bowl. Let’s see what an expert football model that simulates games has to say about the matchup.

Notre Dame is playing some of the greatest defense in the nation and has one of the most effective rushing offenses. They defeated Big Ten rival Indiana in the first round game at home.

Although Georgia managed to win the SEC championship despite its ups and downs this season, quarterback Carson Beck will miss the remainder of the season due to surgery to address an injury to his throwing arm.

Let’s examine the most recent college football predictions made by the Football Power Index computer prediction model as we look ahead to this week’s game.

Using crucial metrics from both teams, the algorithm simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and selects winners based on a predicted margin of victory per game.

Forecasts for Georgia vs. Notre Dame

In this quarterfinal matchup, the simulations are notably supporting the Fighting Irish over the Bulldogs, going against the SEC team for the first time.

Notre Dame has won the majority of 53.7 percent of the computer simulations of the game, making them the matchup’s slim favorite.

Although Georgia isn’t the favorite to win, the model obviously anticipates a competitive game because Georgia defeated the Irish in the remaining 46.3% of simulations.

Georgia defeated the Irish in the remaining 9,260 forecasts for the match, while Notre Dame prevailed in 10,740 of the index’s game simulations.

What does that mean in terms of the anticipated game winning margin?

We may anticipate a very close race, as the projections suggest.

According to the model’s most recent prediction, Notre Dame will only be 1.4 points ahead of Georgia on the same field with their current lineups.

That would be an upset if that were the case.

This is because, based on the most current lines for the game that have been released to FanDuel Sportsbook, Georgia is a 1.5 point favorite against Notre Dame.

The total is 44.5 points (Over -106, Under -114) according to FanDuel.

Additionally, it put Notre Dame’s moneyline odds to win by a wide margin at +106 and Georgia’s at -128.

The opinions of the wagerers

According to the spread consensus picks for the game, bettors are nearly evenly divided on how to predict this showdown, with the Irish receiving a touch more confidence than the Bulldogs.

Fifty-one percent of the wagers are on Notre Dame to either lose the game by one point or win it by an upset.

Georgia will win the game and cover the slim point spread, according to the remaining 49% of bets.

The Power Index for College Football

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How to view the Sugar Bowl in 2024
When: January 1st, Wednesday
Where: Louisiana’s New Orleans.

The time is 8:45 p.m. ESPN network in the East